With 343 days to go, polling experts already have the 2026 midterms on their minds.
“The Democratic primary is kind of a unique animal,” said Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos.
“It depends on how the race is shaped,” said Steve Koczela with MassINC Polling Group.
A Suffolk University-Boston Globe poll is honing in on the fight for Senate in Massachusetts, showing incumbent Sen. Ed Markey claiming 45% of likely Democratic primary voters, with Rep. Seth Moulton at 22% and 30% undecided.
“More undecideds in the Markey-Moulton race, and so that could factor in, that could potentially benefit Moulton,” said Paleologos.
But questions surrounding Rep. Ayanna Pressley are lingering in the background. Rumors continue to circulate about a potential Senate bid from Pressley, with polling data showing her at 35% of likely Democratic primary voters, Markey at 34% and Moulton at 16%.
“Ayanna Pressley is not even formally in the race yet, but you see the race either at Markey with a small lead, or even the two of them running pretty much even,” said Koczela.
Republicans are hoping a crowded Democratic primary can benefit John Deaton, who is running for the seat after losing a bid to unseat Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
“The late primary gives Republican candidates a very short window to make their case against the incumbent,” said Republican Strategist Wendy Wakeman. “I think this is going to help John Deaton.”
The poll also dipped into the Massachusetts gubernatorial race. Of those surveyed, 46% said Gov. Maura Healey deserves to be reelected. Among Healey’s Republican challengers, Brian Shortsleeve led the pack with 21%, followed by Mike Kennealy and Mike Minogue.
