If you were wondering whether the myriad all-time low polls for Donald Trump were some mirage, and Real America was lurking in the shadows, ready to reveal all the lies they told to pollsters, they’re not. If Republican Representative Maria Elvira Salazar’s latest ad is any indication, GOP internal polling may be worse than the generic Democrat +8 to +11 polls we’ve been getting lately. A Florida Republican looking right in the camera and yelling at the president so she can win a district she won by nearly 21 points and Trump won by 15 in 2024 is a sign of the times, and it’s not a good one for Donald Trump’s Republican Party.
“Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far.”
“The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”
-Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla), a former broadcast journalist, direct to camera in campaign ad #FL27
— Greg Giroux (@greggiroux.bsky.social) September 17, 2026 at 7:24 AM
Florida’s 27th District is Miami-Dade county, which contains Little Havana, giving you an idea of its historical ideological lean. It is an area encompassing 344 square miles whose demographics are 73.6% Hispanic and 99.98% urban. This district has also followed the national trend this century, voting for Bush-era Republicans through 2010, then Democrats won every single statewide race in this district save for one from 2012 to 2018 (Marco Rubio’s reelection to the Senate in 2016). In 2020, FL-27 narrowly broke for Trump by 0.3%, and in the subsequent Senate, Governor, Attorney General, Chief Financial Officer, President, and Senate races from 2022 to 2024, Republicans won every race by no less than 14 points.
There are about 43,000 more Republican voters than Democratic voters in this district, per the Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections. It is a Republican +6 district, according to Cook Political’s Partisan Voting Index, but that analysis is current as of last November. They shifted this race from Solid R to Likely R on April 7th, 2026, and I would bet that this ad has probably put another pass at this district on their to do list. FL-27 has changed a lot in the last six years, with Salazar defeating Democratic incumbent Rep. Donna Shalala by less than 3% in 2020. In 2022, the GOP voter lead over the Democrats was only a little less than 4,000. I have not been able to find any recent public polling for this race, but a March poll backs up Cook’s GOP +6 rating. The only recent poll we have seen from this district is an internal one released by Salazar’s Democratic opponent Eliott Rodriguez, who claims it is “a pure toss up.”
And the public facing polling we do have is all bad news for Trump and any Republican connected to him. Every major reputable pollster pegs his approval rating in the 30s. I cannot ever remember seeing a politician with such horrific polling with Independents. CNN’s Harry Enten highlighted last month how Trump has seen a 51-point swing in his approval rating among Hispanic men. Every approval rating on every subject with almost every demographic save for MAGA Republicans contains the same trend for Trump: down only.
Economist/YouGov Sep 11-14
% who approve | disapprove of Trump
U.S. adult citizens 36% | 59% (-23)
Last week 35% | 61% (-25)
Start of term 49% | 43% (+6)
Dem 4% | 94%
Ind 25% | 66%
Rep 81% | 17%
18-29: 28% | 65%
65+: 43% | 55%
yougov.com/en-us/articl…
— YouGov America (@today.yougov.com) September 17, 2026 at 11:29 AM
Perhaps the most striking thing about Trump’s approval numbers is how relentless the gradual erosion of his popularity has been. There is no sign of any meaningful reversal.
Data as ever via the brilliant @gelliottmorris.com @fiftyplusone.news.
— Will Jennings📉🗳️ (@drjennings.bsky.social) September 10, 2026 at 7:25 PM
A Miami Herald poll published in April found that “68% of Cubans strongly or somewhat disapprove of the Trump administration’s increased deportations of undocumented Cubans without criminal records.” Rep. Salazar has actually been a signal in the noise of the Trump administration, as she has been trying to pass a bipartisan piece of legislation going nowhere in Mike Johnson’s House called The Dignity Act. She and Democratic Rep. Veronica Escobar say the bill consists of five principles, one of them being “providing a dignified solution for undocumented immigrants living in America,” so you can see why the GOP Speaker has yet to take it seriously.
The future is unknowable and Trump is trying to ham-fistedly steal the November election, but it’s hard to look at the present state of the midterms and see any kind of optimism for the GOP. Republicans are now having to spend precious PAC money to defend the seats they gerrymandered in Texas, while candidates in seemingly safe districts like this one are cutting ads telling Trump he’s an inhumane SOB who has “betrayed” his own voters. This November has all the looks of a true wave election, and Republican politicians are clearly in a state of panic over it.
