There’s a strange feeling in the air. Last year around this time, the Bills were fighting for their playoff lives. If my memory serves me right, it took a Jacksonville Jaguars loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 18 to secure Buffalo a spot in the playoffs before playing their Sunday Night game against the Dolphins.
When they won the division, the feeling of heading into the playoffs to play the seventh seed felt like a dream come true. After all, just three weeks prior the Bills were out of the playoff picture.
Fast forward to the 2024 season. The Bills clinched their division in Week 13 and have been sitting on ice for the better of two weeks to play the seventh seed but, somehow, it makes me even more nervous.
Despite heading into the season with low expectations in the eyes of many, Buffalo now feels loads of pressure as they hope to clinch the final spot in the AFC divisional bracket.
However, there has to be something to the fact that the Bills have been guaranteed their spot for quite some time. As I mentioned last week, in the Josh Allen era the Bills have never been able to rest their starters in the final week of the season.
The closest they’ve been to that is in 2020 when they blew out the Dolphins in Week 17 and pulled their starters in the third quarter. Ahead of their wild card matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, wide receivers Cole Beasley (ankle) and Stefon Diggs (oblique) were listed as questionable, but ultimately played. For the first time in forever, the Bills will be (almost) fully healthy heading into the playoffs.
The only player with a designation is punt/kick returner Brandon Codrington with a hamstring injury, and he is listed as questionable. Pass rusher Von Miller and linebacker Matt Milano are finally healthy for the playoffs since their season-ending injuries in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
We’ve always wanted to see what a healthy Bills team would look like in the postseason—now is our chance. No excuses.
The last time the Denver Broncos came to Orchard Park was in 2023 when they handed the Bills an unforgettable loss—twelve men on the field decided their fate and dropped Buffalo to a record of 5-5.
The Broncos are way better now than they were at that point, so avoiding another mistake-filled game is necessary to avenge the loss.
Matchups to Watch Out For
Bills’ Offensive Line vs Broncos’ Defensive Line
The Bills will be facing the best defensive line that they’ve seen all season. The Broncos’ lead the NFL in sack percentage with a rate of 9.42% and are second in the NFL in pass rush win rate. The unit is led by pass rushers Jonathan Cooper, John Franklin-Meyers and Nik Bonitto, and defensive tackle Zach Allen.
Each player has at least seven sacks on the year. The Bills are fourth in the league in pass block win rate, and have arguably a top five offensive tackle duo in Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown. Ultimately, this game may come down to strength versus strength.
The Broncos love to put five defensive linemen across the line of scrimmage when they play man coverage, according to Bills guard O’Cyrus Torrence. I feel that the key to the game will be how the Bills decide to use running back Ty Johnson.
He is their best pass-blocking back, and this would also leave him as an option as a pass catcher. I have more on that later.
Predictions
Ty Johnson is heavily featured
Remember the game against the Detroit Lions? Ty Johnson was sensational, as he logged five receptions for 114 receiving yards against a Lions‘ defense that had no answers for him.
Mina Kimes pointed out that the Broncos struggle against running backs in the passing game, as they rank second to last in defense-adjusted value over average on targets to running backs.
The Bills’ running backs rank first in the league in receiving touchdowns and yards per reception, and eighth in yards after catch per reception.
Conclusion
It’s amazing how fast the regular comes and goes, considering how long we wait for it to begin. Granted, if your team is still standing at this point, it is hard to complain: the real season begins now.
Not many people believed that the Bills would be in this position, and certainly not many believed that the Broncos would be either.
Maybe even less so. Either way, one team is going home and the other is walking away victorious. Can the Bills continue their wild card win streak? I guess we’ll find out!
Featured Image Credit: The Bills Wire
