After three straight years of being bounced in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, the Buffalo Bills have made it back to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 2020.

What did I say? This current iteration of the Bills has given me the same feeling that I felt for that team. The feeling of “we weren’t supposed to be here—but, here we are.” It is only fitting that they must go through the same team that eliminated them that very season.

The Kansas City Chiefs have plenty of reasons to be motivated. Besides, they’re vying for their third consecutive Super Bowl win, a feat that has yet to be achieved.

They are also looking to avenge the one meaningful loss that they faced in 2024: the Buffalo Bills ruined their chance at an undefeated season. No one is angrier than Patrick Mahomes when seeking revenge. Unfortunately, the Buffalo Bills are in his way. 

The regular season success that the Bills have had over the Chiefs means nothing. Kansas City has eliminated Buffalo from the playoffs three out of the past four seasons, so clearly something changes once the postseason rolls around.

For starters, the Chiefs have elite coaching talent. Head coach Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo know how to make adjustments, especially in second matchups.

Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott and his staff haven’t shown the ability to counterpunch the Chiefs in the playoffs. However, McDermott had his best game coaching versus the Chiefs in Week 11, so maybe that could change. 

It is also noteworthy to mention that the Bills have had injuries impact their previous postseason runs. In the 2023-24 Divisional Round, they were without cornerback Christian Benford, linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard, and CB Rasul Douglas was playing with an injured knee.

Unfortunately the Bills will be without starting safety Taylor Rapp for this game, but the hope is that rookie S Cole Bishop will step up and use what he has learned from veteran Micah Hyde.

Christian Benford has been in concussion protocol, but he was limited for most of the week (he took a personal day on Friday, but that does not preclude him from being cleared). Meanwhile, DB Taron Johnson and LB Matt Milano were without designations, which mean that they are set to play.

Despite Taylor Rapp’s status, this Bills’ team is the healthiest it’s been in the playoffs in a long time. 

Matchups to Watch Out For

Bills’ Secondary vs Chiefs’ Receivers

Without safety Taylor Rapp, the Bills will have their hands full. Their pass defense has not been stellar, but Rapp has provided leadership and communication for the backend of their defense for much of the season and some would say there is a considerable drop off when he is not on the field.

However, many Bills fans point to the Detroit Lions’ game in which the Bills were missing Rapp. They held the Lions to 14 points through almost three quarters, until the dam broke and Detroit began to claw their way back in garbage time.

The defensive line was a huge part of their performance, which means they’ll have to replicate it for this game. I’ll get to more of that later. Rookie Cole Bishop is assumed to start in Rapp’s place.

He has had his ups and downs all season. In coverage, he has given up 94 yards on eight receptions. Not ideal, but a majority of those yards came versus the Jets in garbage time and the Patriots (most of those yards were given up closer to the line of scrimmage).

Bishop, coming out of Utah, was known for his ability to cover tight ends.

He might find himself up against perhaps the greatest tight end of all-time, Travis Kelce. Now, if he is to cover deep, communication will be key.

In his first start, he and CB Rasul Douglas had a mis-communication and it resulted in a long touchdown for Texans’ wide receiver Nico Collins. Hopefully his time with Micah Hyde has paid off since then.

The Chiefs were missing wide receiver Hollywood Brown for a majority of the season, and he did not play versus the Bills in Week 11.

He has only played in three games and accumulated 91 yards on 15 targets. Although he’s been quiet, he is another weapon for Patrick Mahomes to utilize. 

Bills’ Defensive Line vs Chiefs’ Offensive Line

A weakness for the Bills in previous matchups against Kansas City has been the pressure created by their defensive line.

They have only sacked Patrick Mahomes three times in three playoff games, compared to nine sacks in five games in the regular season.

There is not much of a difference in sacks per game (1.0 versus 1.8), but it is clearly an issue when it comes to the Bills’ postseason success versus regular season success.

The Bills must rally around Mahomes and take him down when given the opportunity. The Chiefs have had issues with their offensive line all season, particularly at offensive tackle. The Bills were able to take advantage of them in Week 11.

Defensive end Greg Rousseau had a pressure rate of 21.4% against the Chiefs in the 2024 regular season. I assume that the Chiefs will have a plan for him this time around. The Bills‘ defensive line has been trending in the right direction, though.

In the playoffs, defensive tackle Ed Oliver and pass rusher Von Miller have been effective, as they top the charts in hurries per rush in the postseason—and this is going up against an elite Denver offensive line and a respectable Baltimore offensive line in pass blocking.

Still, Patrick Mahomes usually finds a way to make you pay, and the play is never over. The Bills’ pass coverage must marry their pass rush all night in order for the defensive line to make a difference. 

Predictions

A shootout occurs

Although my little heart can’t take it, I expect this game to be a shootout. With the absence of Taylor Rapp, the offense will have to carry the load.

The Bills’ offense was missing WR Keon Coleman, tight end Dalton Kincaid, and right tackle Spencer Brown when they last faced the Chiefs.

They had trouble running the ball, particularly with their running backs—they had 19 carries for 49 yards.

Their lack of success could be attributed to Brown’s absence, as he is the best run blocker on the team.

To shorten the game, and to prevent a shootout, the Bills will need to run the ball effectively, assuming Spencer Brown will make it easier this time.

Keeping their defense, and the Chiefs’ offense, off of the field would be ideal. 

Conclusion

It’s been four years since the Bills were in this position. Three straight years of divisional round exits has been taxing on this team, and that is part of the reason why the Bills felt the need to move on from some players in the offseason.

This is the moment they have worked towards. It is only fitting that they started their rivalry with Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game with an inexperienced team, only to go back to the title game to face them once again with a team full of roster turnover.

The only difference is, are they better prepared this time around? I guess we will find out. I will see you on the other side, Bills fans. 

Featured Image Credit: Fox Sports