We all knew that we would see them again. The infamous Week 4 matchup in Baltimore has been frequently used as a measuring stick for the Buffalo Bills’ season. 

“Well, didn’t they get beat by the Baltimore Ravens by a score of 35-10? Sure, they beat Kansas City and Detroit, but they were taken to school by the Ravens.”

God forbid a team loses a game. Besides, the Bills were missing at least three starters in that game. Linebacker Matt Milano was still on injured reserve, and LB Terrel Bernard and nickel cornerback Taron Johnson were nursing injuries.

Starting safety Taylor Rapp left the game with a concussion after playing 16 snaps. Wide receiver Khalil Shakir suffered an ankle injury, which he ultimately played through but was certainly limited.

Pass rusher Von Miller only played nine snaps in the entire game. Of course, the Bills didn’t have WR Amari Cooper yet either. So much has changed since that early game.

Even the Ravens have evolved, which I’ll get into later. They were also missing their starting defensive tackle Michael Pierce. 

Since then, the Bills have redeemed themselves and have won enough games to finish ahead of the Baltimore Ravens in conference seeding.

Having been rewarded with home field advantage, the Bills will get to host them this time around. 

Matchups to Watch Out For

Bills’ Receivers vs Ravens’ Secondary

In Week 8, Ravens’ starting safety Marcus Williams was benched in an attempt to fix Baltimore’s issues in the secondary. At that point, they were ranked at the bottom of the league in most passing defense statistics, and something needed to be done.

Young safety Ar’Darius Washington replaced Williams versus the Cleveland Browns, starting next to S Eddie Jackson, but it was a failed experiment, leading to multiple dropped interceptions in the loss to the Browns.

They proceeded to give up 428 passing yards to QB Joe Burrow in Week 10, which prompted the Ravens to try one final combination the following week.

They moved star safety Kyle Hamilton to the backend followed by Ar’Darius Washington, and moved CB Marlon Humphrey to slot corner. CBs Nate Wiggins and Brandon Stephens have been their primary outside corners.

Since Week 11, the Ravens’ pass defense has dramatically improved in a manner in which we’ve likely never seen before, at least mid-season.

In Weeks 1-10, Baltimore’s pass defense let up a whopping 294.9 passing yards per game, which was dead last in the NFL. From Weeks 11-17, they let up 171.2 passing yards per game, which ranked second in the league. Clearly, their changes worked. 

The Bills saw an improvement in their wide receiver room when they traded for WR Amari Cooper after Week 6. His snap counts have been low—he is on the field about 46% of the time—and he’s been nursing a wrist/hand injury, but he’s undoubtedly opened up the field for QB Josh Allen and the other receivers by demanding attention from number one cornerbacks.

WR Khalil Shakir has been Allen’s most reliable target out of the slot. WRs Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins are critical for run blocking and provide a large frame to box out defenders.

Now, speedy WR Curtis Samuel is finally coming into his own after being hampered with injuries. This receiver corp is a lot different from what we saw in Week 4.

There is so much variety, and they can beat you in a multitude of ways. Last week against the Broncos, it was not a favorable game for the outside receivers.

Denver’s vulnerabilities were in the middle of their defense. Against the Ravens, the Bills would be wise to target the boundary: this is a Coleman and Cooper kind of game.

CB Brandon Stephens has been picked on for much of the season. He has given up 778 yards in coverage on 82 targets, according to SIS Data Hub, which is ranked first for most yards given up in the NFL. He should be targeted for most of the night. 

Bills’ Run Defense vs Ravens’ Rushing Offense

Of course, the headliner for any Ravens’ game is their supreme ability to gash teams on the ground.

The Bills have been particularly vulnerable in this department given their willingness to live in nickel defense and play two-high safety: they invite teams to run the ball.

However, their defensive line is small, and they’re not immune to gap integrity issues, which magnifies the run defense concerns. 

Here we go, again. The Bills have a second date with RB Derrick Henry. The first one didn’t go all that well—they gave up 199 rushing yards on 24 carries and one long touchdown to the King. But, they were missing multiple starters in the second level and gave up 87 of those yards on one play.

The Bills will have both of their starting linebackers, Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano, available this time around, and should be able to trot out a more formidable trio of linebackers than Baylon Spector, Dorian Williams and Nicholas Morrow if they are to go with base defense. 

Another piece of the equation is the presence of star QB Lamar Jackson. What makes this Ravens’ offense even more spectacular is his ability to pull defenders away from Henry and open up rush lanes.

One particular play that the Ravens’ have mastered is the read option. Jackson can choose to either keep the ball and run or give it to Henry depending on how the defensive end reacts.

This requires the defender to be very cerebral and quick to react, because one wrong angle can spell trouble if Lamar declines to hand it off: he’ll run right past you.

The Bills will have the same defensive ends available for this game, but having Milano and Bernard back in the lineup will help a ton given their enhanced chemistry with each other, leading to better communication. 

Bills’ Secondary vs Ravens’ Receivers

The availability of Ravens‘ WR Zay Flowers is being called into question after he suffered a knee injury against the Cleveland Browns in Week 18.

He has not practiced in two weeks, and he is being listed as doubtful for this week’s game against the Buffalo Bills. Of course, this is seen as a big deal. He leads the team in receiving yards with 1,059 yards and has 44 more targets than the next guy.

However, caution should be taken because the Ravens likely (no pun intended) have the best tight end duo in the league in Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely, and WR Rashod Bateman has become revitalized in offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s offense. 

Predictions

Both teams combine for over 800 yards of offense

Defenses win championships, but with two high-powered offenses going at each other, it’s almost impossible to expect either defense to show up.

Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, each vying for the MVP award, are two of the best quarterbacks in the league and neither have won a championship yet.

It’s unfortunate that one player will leave Highmark Stadium in defeat, but he will not go down without swinging. This will not be good for my heart. 

Conclusion

I forgot to mention: I will be in attendance to witness this masterpiece of a matchup! In fact, this is my first time attending a playoff game, so I am incredibly nervous to potentially go home very upset.

It’s a gamble that I’m willing to take, because if somehow the Bills win, I’m sure it will be extremely satisfying to experience it in person. 

The Buffalo Bills have not made it back to the AFC Championship game since the magical 2020-21 season. The 2024-25 season has, indeed, been magical, so it would only be fitting that they’d be able to find their way back to the title game this year.

Funny enough, it was by defeating the Baltimore Ravens that the Bills were able to achieve such a feat. Can history repeat itself? I hope so. 

See you all on the other side. 

Featured Image Credit: Sports Illustrated