We have about two months until the field for the 2026 NCAA Hockey Tournament is unveiled, but the postseason picture is beginning to take shape. Most teams around the country have played at least 20 regular season games, which is around the time the postseason formula begins to be useful for ranking the teams.
As of this morning, the NCAA Tournament picture looks like this, based on NPI and conference standings. Please note that projected conference tournament winners are in italics and are based on current in-conference point percentage:
Locks (2): Michigan, Michigan State
Safe (7): North Dakota, Minnesota-Duluth, Western Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Quinnipiac, Dartmouth
Bubble In (5): Cornell, Denver, Providence, St. Thomas, Augustana, Boston College
Automatic Qualifier(1): Bentley
Bubble Out (5): Boston University, St. Cloud State, Michigan Tech, UConn, Harvard
My projected bracket looks like this:
Sioux Falls Regional
- North Dakota vs. Augustana
- Western Michigan vs. Cornell
Worcester Regional
- Michigan State vs. Boston College
- Wisconsin vs. Quinnipiac
Albany Regional
- Michigan vs. Bentley
- Dartmouth vs. Providence
Loveland Regional
- Minnesota-Duluth vs. St. Thomas
- Penn State vs. Denver
Some things to note here:
- Michigan and Michigan State are the only two teams I feel comfortable locking in as of this weekend. They both have a significant cushion in NPI over the first teams outside the field. Boston University (53.42), the first team out, is closer to No. 47 Yale (47.96) than they are to No. 1 Michigan (60.13).
- No. 15 is the current cut line for an at-large bid, but Hockey East and the CCHA have current projected champions closer to the bubble than the Big Ten, ECAC, and NCHC. Normally, No. 12 or higher is safe for an at-large bid.
- Penn State (No. 6) is safely on the right side, but the No. 4-9 teams in the NPI are not separated by much. We are likely to see these teams shuffle around this range each week. The battle for the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament will be interesting, to say the least.
Key Games This Weekend
No. 6 Penn State at No. 7 Wisconsin- Friday (8pm on Big Ten Plus) and Saturday (8pm on Big Ten Network)
- I will have the full preview for this series tomorrow. Both of these teams are safely in the field, but Big Ten title positioning is at stake.
No. 5 Western Michigan at No. 4 Minnesota-Duluth- Friday at 8pm, Saturday at 7pm
- Again, both teams are safely in, but the winner of the series would bump up to the No. 1 seed line.
No. 8 Dartmouth at No. 11 Cornell- Friday (7pm on ESPN+)
- Cornell has a golden opportunity to gain some ground on Dartmouth in the conference standings and pull away from the bubble a bit more.
No. 17 St. Cloud State at No. 10 Denver- Friday at 9pm, Saturday at 8pm
- Denver has looked a bit vulnerable this season. A loss to St. Cloud State would bump the Pioneers down closer to the bubble while also giving the Huskies a quality win to move up in the NPI.
No. 12 Providence vs. No. 16 Boston University- Friday at PC (7pm on ESPN+), Saturday at BU (7pm on ESPN+)
- Boston University has been playing better since its dreadful start to the season, though the Terriers are still inconsistent. They will need to find a way to at least gain a split in this series to avoid falling further down the pecking order.
