It wasn’t pretty. But the Patriots made winning plays when winning plays had to be made. And just like that, they are moving onto the AFC Championship Game after a 28-16 win over the Texans on Sunday.
They’ll fly to Denver on Saturday to take on former Patriots backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham and the Broncos the following afternoon. But before we dive headlong into that matchup, we have to sort through the wreckage of an at-times confounding — yet still, in some ways, program-defining — victory for Mike Vrabel and his team.
Here’s what we learned…
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Patriots are driven by defense…
For the vast majority of the season, the Patriots were led by the play of MVP-caliber quarterback Drake Maye. The last two weeks, though? In the two biggest games of the season? They’ve been driven by their defense.
As was the case in the Wild Card Round against the Chargers, the Patriots snuffed out most of what Houston hoped to do offensively, posting numbers indicative of a historically-dominant performance.
Per Opta Stats, they’re one of two teams since the NFL merger to force five turnovers, record a pick-6, rack up three sacks, allow less than 50 yards rushing and give up just one touchdown in a playoff game.
The other? The Bears in Super Bowl XX… against the Patriots.
…And that defense is driven by ‘noise’
The Patriots made it very clear after the game that they weren’t thrilled about how all of the publicity leading up to the game was being devoted to Houston’s next-level defensive unit.
How would Drake Maye and his offensive teammates put a dent in DeMeco Ryans’ star-studded roster on that side of the ball? How would Patriots linemen protect against one of the most fearsome pass-rush duos in football?
Those were fair questions, especially given how the game played out. But New England’s defenders believed they’d earned a little more respect than they felt they’d received.
“Definitely. It fueled the whole defense,” Milton Williams said of the praise the Texans received before the game. “Ain’t nobody been talking about our defense all year. We’ll see what they got to say today.”
C.J. Stroud wilts under pressure
The Texans were complicit in their own demise. Mistakes by quarterback C.J. Stroud pocked the first 30 minutes of the game, and he went into the locker room at halftime with four interceptions to his name.
Two went to Carlton Davis on a pair of poorly-thrown footballs. One was tipped into the air by a Texans receiver and landed in the arms of safety Craig Woodson. The fourth turned into points for the Patriots as Marcus Jones caught a heave — popped up into the air thanks to a hit from K’Lavon Chaisson — and returned it for a touchdown.
Stroud finished with a -15.9 completion percentage over expected, which was easily the worst of the Divisional Round. For as many bad throws as he made, however, the Patriots did force him into a boatload of difficult ones. He attempted 14 tight-window throws on 47 attempts (29.8 percent), per NextGen Stats, which was the highest rate created by a defense over the last six postseasons.
The 27.8 EPA created by the Patriots’ five takeaways was the most by a playoff defense since at least 2016, according to NGS.
Patriots remain blitz-happy
After attacking Justin Herbert in the Wild Card Round and forcing him into myriad mistakes, the Patriots seemed to have a similar plan ready to go for the turnover-prone Stroud.
According to Pro Football Focus, they blitzed Stroud on 24 of his 52 dropbacks for a blitz rate of 46.2 — a slight uptick over their blitz percentage against the Chargers of 45.5.
On 11 blitzed dropbacks in the first half, the Patriots forced Stroud to complete just 36 percent of his passes for 40 yards, including a touchdown to Christian Kirk on an all-out blitz look.
Against the blitz, Stroud went 8-for-23 for 3.9 yards per attempt, one touchdown and two picks, per PFF. Under pressure — which the Patriots were able to generate even without bringing extra blitzers — Stroud finished 4-for-18 for 4.0 yards per attempt and two picks, giving him a quarterback rating of 4.2.
Bully ball on display
Vrabel called one of his team’s fourth-quarter drives “classy.” But not because it was draped in style. It was anything but. Which is what made it so impressive.
With almost 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter, the Patriots had the ball on their own 4-yard line and a 28-16 lead. They brought sixth offensive lineman Thayer Munford Jr. onto the field, and it became clear what they were after.
They wanted to kill clock. They wanted to run the football. And they didn’t care who knew it.
Rhamondre Stevenson proceeded to take hand-offs on four-straight snaps, picking up 25 yards and two first downs. Two plays later, Maye found Stefon Diggs for another first down in a third-and-7 situation.
By the time the drive stalled and Vrabel punted back to Houston, they had run 6:09 off the clock, and the game was all but sealed.
To run it that way — when the Texans knew they’d be running it, and the Patriots knew the Texans knew they’d be running it — proved to everyone in the stadium that they could impose their will when necessary. Even against arguably the best defense in the NFL.
Early plan made sense, but…
Josh McDaniels’ early-game plan seemed logical.
He began the game with a draw play, perhaps to try to put some doubt into the minds of opposing pass-rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. If the Patriots could mix up their runs to look like passes and vice versa, that might ultimately keep Maye protected, appeared to be the thinking.
Two plays later, McDaniels called for a screen on third down. More use-their-aggression-against-them kind of stuff. He called two more screens inside his offense’s next four plays.
The problem? Two draws and three screens on the first three Patriots drives combined for 11 yards. The Texans were too smart, too fast, too instinctive for those to work.
And as the early-down plan hit speed bumps, Maye found himself in some dire third-and-long (obvious-pass) scenarios — the types of scenarios in which Anderson and Hunter tend to feast.
Through their first seven first-down plays, the Patriots picked up 13 yards. On third down, for the game, the Patriots went just 3-for-14.
Texans’ pass-rushers are that good
Try as the Patriots did to scheme around Houston’s defense, they inevitably ruined portions of the game for Maye and the Patriots offense.
Vrabel’s young signal-caller was sacked five times and lost a whopping four fumbles. Two were recovered by Will Campbell — including one that rolled all the way to the Patriots’ goal line and could’ve easily led to a Texans touchdown — and two were scooped up by Houston.
Three of Maye’s fumbles were of the in-pocket variety, while one of his lost fumbles came on a broken play where he scrambled up the gut and had the ball punched out while diving head-first for additional yardage.
Hunter was credited with two sacks and one forced fumble, while Anderson came up with three sacks and two strip-sacks — both of which came while working off of Campbell.
“They’re both good,” Campbell said of Anderson and Hunter. “They’re both First-Team All-Pro. You watch the tape, they both have combined after the night, and they both have 31 sacks. I don’t know. They’re talented. Their whole defense is, but our defense played better tonight.
“Our defense outplayed their defense. That’s something we talked about coming into the week. We knew it wasn’t going to be easy. We knew it was going to be a battle. Whenever your defense can get four interceptions, it’s pretty cool to watch and be a part of.”
Drake Maye has roller-coaster day
One of Vrabel’s four pillars of the identity he has wanted the Patriots to adopt is “ball-disruption and ball-security.” He got plenty of the former on Sunday, and not so much of the latter. And arguably his best player, Maye, coughed it up four times.
“We knew they were going to be good, and they lived up to the hype, all the statistics and all the ball hunting that we saw on film,” Maye said. “They ball hunt. On the edge, they’re tough. I’ve got to do a better job stepping up, and I’ve got to hit some guys downfield when we had our chances. But… we made enough plays.”
Maye ended up making a handful of winning throws in key situations. His first touchdown pass of the game came on a slant against an all-out blitz to DeMario Douglas on fourth down. He hit a tight-window touchdown — after a pair of accurate throws to Kayshon Boutte — to Stefon Diggs. His down-the-field fourth-quarter score to Boutte was a dime (that gave Boutte a chance to make an even more impressive one-handed grab).
Even Maye’s fourth-quarter first-down throw to Diggs, during the clock-killing drive, was an accurate one in a pressure situation.
“We scored 21 and the defense helped us out with seven,” Maye said. “We did what we had to do in the game.
“The elements were a little tough. I have to be better with the football when I’m taking off and running. From there, just know that the football is the prized possession, and when we don’t turn the ball over and put our defense in bad spots, I like our chances.”
Contributors across the board
Call it a program win for Vrabel, ugly as it was at times.
Early in the season, when Rhamondre Stevenson dealt with fumble issues, Vrabel refused to remove his running back from the equation.
“We’re going to need everybody,” he said at the time.
That’s certainly been true for Stevenson, who has rewarded Vrabel with an uber-productive month-and-a-half to end the regular season and help his team to the AFC title game.
But it’s been true across position groups, and Sunday was one of this season’s best examples of that fact.
Stars came up big in key moments.
Maye and Diggs connected for a touchdown. Milton Williams and Christian Barmore had dominant snaps, penetrating into the Texans backfield with ease at times. Christian Gonzalez forced a fumble and allowed just 3.6 yards per coverage snap on 16 targets, according to NGS.
But they got contributions from across the board.
Marcus Jones had a pick-6 and was all over the field. Khyiris Tonga had a sack, and K’Lavon Chaisson (four quarterback hits) bothered Stroud from start to finish. Craig Woodson came up with an interception. Christian Elliss and Robert Spillane made some jarring hits and helped hold Houston to 2.2 yards per carry. Douglas came into the game without a touchdown since Week 9 but got the scoring started for New England.
“Everybody’s stepping up,” Vrabel said. “We’re using everybody. Everybody’s making plays. Everybody’s helping us win. I’m excited for these guys, but also, they’re not satisfied, and I can tell that.”
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