It’s Friday, which means it’s time for the great American tradition of doing your best Peter Gibbons and mentally checking out of work after lunch.
And while you’re celebrating tradition, you can combine your zoning out with the digestion of matchup numbers between Ole Miss and Texas. These numbers are to help us see the advantages, disadvantages, and LOOKS LIKE A 50-50 BALL, BOB.
As we found out last week, given the relatively small season sample size, some numbers may be fraudulent. For instance, look at your boy getting one, nay, multiple things right.
From last week’s post about Missouri:
As for Missouri, not an explosive offense, but the defensive numbers are strong. It should be noted the one dynamic offense they played (Mississippi State) torched them, which makes me lean in the direction of they’ve benefited from playing bad offenses in Troy, Kansas, and Texas A&M.
BAM.
Missouri’s success rate numbers indicate they’re inconsistent from drive to drive and series to series…
AGAIN.
If the Ole Miss defense is trending in a non-trash direction and the Missouri defense will deflate against better offenses, Ole Miss should be fine…
COUNTING UP OUR CASH FROM LAYING THE 5.5 POINTS.
Per the usual, we’ll lean on TeamRankings, and Parker Fleming’s Ole Miss/Texas preview and focus on the Five Factors. As a note, Team Rankings only uses FBS vs. FBS stats, and Fleming uses FBS vs. FBS with garbage time stats removed.
As a reminder, the Five Factors are:
- Explosiveness
- Efficiency
- Finishing Drives
- Field Position
- Turnovers
If you win all or most of those categories, you’re probably going to win the game.
Explosiveness
Two ways to measure this are yards per play and points per play. The more explosive plays you have, the easier it is to have scoring drives.
Yards per play (via TeamRankings):
- Ole Miss offense – 20th (6.4) vs. Texas defense – 2nd (4.0)
- Texas offense – 91st (5.2) vs. Ole Miss defense – 68th (5.4)
Points per play (via TeamRankings):
- Ole Miss offense – 10th (0.543) vs. Texas defense – 21st (0.259)
- Texas offense – 45th (0.435) vs. Ole Miss defense – 43rd (0.333)
Ole Miss’ defensive numbers continue their climb to the vicinity of last year’s, which you might expect after throttling Vanderbilt and Missouri, and the offense continues to be the offense.
As for Texas, their offensive struggles have been documented WELL TO QUITE WELL over the last two weeks after terrible performances against Oklahoma and Florida. Things are in a bad enough place that rumors about backup quarterback KJ Lacey Jr. getting more first-team snaps in practice this week were swirling (though Steve Sarkisian denied them).
Obviously, Sarkisian won’t throw his guy under the bus, but it’s clear that if Arch Manning stinks it up again and Sarkisian knows Texas is in trouble, Lacey Jr. will see the field in at least one series.
As for the Texas defense, elite numbers above, but like Missouri’s defense, those are somewhat inflated due to playing the offenses of Texas State, UT San Antonio, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. However, they’re still very good and have more talent than Missouri, though they’ll be without edge wrecker Colin Simmons on Saturday.
Efficiency
The best ways to measure this are success rate* and 3rd/4th down conversions.
*Rate at which offenses gain 50 percent of yards needed on 1st down, 75 percent on second down, and 100 percent on 3rd/4th down.
Ole Miss offense vs. Texas defense success rates (via Fleming’s numbers):
- Ole Miss overall – 7th vs. Texas overall – 11th
- Ole Miss rush – 15th vs. Texas rush – 30th
- Ole Miss pass – 7th vs. Texas pass – 7th
We’ll see how Texas performs for a full game without Simmons, but the first smidge of an advantage for Ole Miss could be in the run game. Texas has a very good run defense, but it’s not impossible to grind out yards.
Texas offense vs. Ole Miss defense success rates (via Fleming’s numbers):
- Texas overall – 70th vs. Ole Miss overall – 55th
- Texas rush – 52nd vs. Ole Miss rush – 66th
- Texas pass – 80th vs. Ole Miss pass – 47th
For comparison, Texas’ offense is ahead of Missouri’s overall and significantly better at quality runs. Though, on that front, starting running back Hollywood Smothers is likely to miss Saturday’s game.
Now, let’s look at 3rd/4th down conversions:
- Ole Miss offense – 33rd vs. Texas defense – 5th
- Texas offense – 67th vs. Ole Miss defense – 71st
The Missouri offense against the Ole Miss defense was a similar matchup, and Ole Miss held them to 6 of 19 on 3rd/4th down, mainly thanks to shutting down the run on early downs.
According to Game On Paper, 8 of Missouri’s 24 runs went for 0 yards or less, and 14 of 24 runs went for 2 or less. If Ole Miss brings that run defense to Austin, their chance of winning increases exponentially.
Finishing Drives
We’ll look at three things here. First, Fleming’s metric of points per drive:
- Ole Miss offense – 14th vs. Texas defense – 12th
- Texas offense – 71st vs. Ole Miss defense – 65th
Again, if the Ole Miss defense continues its assent from the depths of suck, one might feel good about where the season is headed. I know the Ole Miss offense against the Texas defense is a matchup of good groups, but I’m a believer in the Gospel of Ole Miss is Going to Score on Everyone.
The second thing we’ll peruse is TeamRankings’ red zone and touchdowns per game numbers.
Red zone scoring percentage:
- Ole Miss offense – 1st (100 percent) vs. Texas defense – 50th (81.25 percent)
- Texas offense – 27th (91.3 percent) vs. Ole Miss defense – 38th (78.26 percent)
Texas, though not great on offense, is pretty efficient in the red zone. And I’ll note Ole Miss’ rise in defensive red zone efficiency is thanks to a missed 20-ish yard field goal from Missouri and a garbage time interception inside the 5. A pair of events unlikely to occur.
Touchdowns per game:
- Ole Miss offense – 14th (4.5) vs. Texas defense – 2nd (1.3)
- Texas offense – 50th (3.3) vs. Ole Miss defense – 52nd (2.7)
Much like most of the stats above, the game will likely come down to whether the Ole Miss offense can, in fact, score on everyone.
Field Position
If your offense gets the ball with shorter fields, they don’t need to go as far to score points. And if your defense takes the field with an offense backed up, that’s more yards they need to score points.
Fleming’s numbers have the Texas offense 62nd in field position, and Ole Miss’ offense checks in at 75th. Perhaps another advantage for Ole Miss, a good offense that can overcome less-than-ideal field position, while Texas and a struggling offense has to deal with average field position.
Turnovers
Turnovers take away scoring opportunities from offenses and creating turnovers gives offenses more scoring opportunities.
- Ole Miss offense giveaways per game – 76th (1.3) vs. Texas defense takeaways per game – 98th (0.8)
- Texas offense giveaways per game – 76th (1.3) vs. Ole Miss defense takeaways per game – 64th (1.2)
A little odd that Texas has such good defensive numbers and doesn’t generate many turnovers, but if they could keep that trend going that this weekend, I would approve.
It would also be super smart of Ole Miss to not turn the ball over and give an inconsistent offense additional possessions.
TL;DR
- The Texas offense is butt and could change quarterbacks if the butt continues, but (not butt) is the Ole Miss defense’s rise from hell for real and capable of making said butt continue for Texas?
- Can the Ole Miss offense score on anyone, no matter what the opponent’s defensive numbers say?
While Ole Miss can win this game, I don’t love going against a Texas team that’s been embarrassed (though not Ole Miss-Florida embarrassed) the last two weeks in farting away winnable games.
Texas would still have a chance at making the playoff with 3 losses, but this has last stand vibes for the season and Sarkisian’s tenure. It’s entirely possible they’re just not that good right now and it won’t matter, but I expect Ole Miss will get whatever is left of Texas’ best shot.
