On Saturday, the Iowa Hawkeyes will be playing the Northern Iowa Panthers for the nineteenth time in its history. At this point, Iowa is 2-0 on the season, but it feels like we don’t know much more than we did when the season began. We can, however, say a few things with confidence:
- Tony Diaz is the best Iowa play-making wide receiver who has actually been given a chance to make plays since Ihmir Smith Marsette and Brandon Smith, both of whom graduated in 2020.
- Kirk Ferentz can say whatever he wants about his starting quarterbacks, but unless Hank Brown goes out there and throws two picks on the first three drives and Jeremy Hecklinski plays lights out, QB1 is Brown’s job. And everybody knows it.
- Kicker and punter are going to be okay. It’s hard to be positive because they’ve yet to perform in a hostile road environment, but these were huge worries coming into the season and they both performed well under adverse (home) conditions.
- The defense is solid against the run which is hardly a surprise in a Phil Parker defense. Still, they’ve yet to play any especially good rushing teams, so it’s hard to say how solid.
- Iowa has good cornerbacks. The Iowa State offense is meh, but the Clones have got good receivers and the cornerbacks held up well against them. Even when they got beat it was offensive execution more this lack of defensive execution.
- Oh, and we also know Northern Illinois lost to Illinois State last week.
Unfortunately, this game against UNI will tell us very little because Iowa will beat the pants off the Panthers, but for better or worse, this is the last tune up game of the season.
Three Questions
Is Zach Lutmer any good or…?
Senior safety Zach Lutmer had a terrible game against ISU. It was his worst qualities from last season—poor tackling—but magnified. And then there was that dropped gimme-interception at the end of the game.
Coming into this season, he was named to all sorts of pre-season All-American and Watch lists. He’s got all the athleticism and speed you could ask for but he needs to clean up his game, and he needs to do it immediately.
Will Iowa involve its tight ends in the passing game?
Outside of linebacker, tight end may be Iowa’s strongest and deepest position group. There is junior DJ Vonnahme who exploded at the end of last season, and began this season on a number of preseason All-American lists. Senior Addison Ostrenga lost most of last year due to injury, but he was and is primed for a breakout. And sophomore Tomas Meyer has ascended the depth chart and may have the most raw talent of the bunch. Also junior Zach Ortwerth is pushing for playing time
Yet they’ve been kind of MIA. Well, maybe that’s not entirely fair as the tight ends have combined for 11 receptions for 98 yards. That’s not bad, but can you name one memorable, big-impact play, especially against Iowa State? Me neither. What’s more, that production is dwarfed by Tony Diaz’s 15 receptions for 179 yards. And this will all be compounded because Vonnahme is out for the UNI game which won’t impact that game, but will affect snap counts.
I’m all for making Tony Diaz the no. 1 option but there is too much talent at tight end not to get them more involved.
Will Iowa spread the ball around?
Speaking of involving the tight ends, there is Tony Diaz. Iowa’s No. 2 pass catcher in the ISU game was running back Kamari Moulton. He is also tied with DJ Vonnahme for second most receptions on the team with six.
Diaz has almost three times the yardage and receptions as Vonnahme. And he does have over three times the receiving yardage as Moulton. As mentioned, Diaz is No. 1 and it’s nice having a No. 1 wide receiver at Iowa; it’s been a long time since there has been one.
But Diaz would be even more effective if Iowa spread the receptions around. Once he matches up against corners who can cover him, which will be next week at Michigan, Iowa will need other options. This is especially pressing because one of Brown’s biggest weaknesses has been staring down receivers. Knowing he can depend on other options besides Diaz might help him to break that bad habit.
Two Things to Watch
Hank Brown’s Downfield Passing Game
Overall, Hank Brown has been okay, maybe better than any passing quarterback Iowa has had at the beginning of the season since Nate Stanley.
He has more rushing ability than expected, he has done well with short and midrange throws, and he has completed 66% of his passes. The last time an Iowa quarterback completed at least 66% of his passes through two games was Nate Stanley in 2019. The last time an Iowa quarterback finished a season with at least a 66% completion percentage was Chuck Long in 1985. It’s a long way until the end of the season, but that’s rarified company.
Brown has also been money on first down going 21-of-30 (70%) for 206 yards and 11 first downs.
The biggest area for improvement, however, is his downfield passing. He is 1-for-8 with his lone completion going to Diaz vs Iowa State.
This isn’t Iowa of the last few years. Brown has big-play weapons. He needs to find them and get them the ball.
The Punt Returner
The kicker and punter, as noted, have been solid. The kick returner hasn’t had to do much so open book there. But the punt returner has been all over the map.
First of all, the returner was supposed to be Zach Lutmer, but due to health reasons, he has been on a snap count, and honestly, he needs to focus on his tackling.
Over the past two weeks, both Evan James and Reece Vander Zee have returned punts to mixed results. James ran one back for a touchdown against NIU. But the coaches don’t seem to have full confidence in him so Vander Zee has taken the punts.
Hey, I’d love to have Kaden Wetjen back there, or his equal, to return punts, but it’s unlikely. However, at the very least, the coaches need to find someone who can make a good call between making a fair catch and letting it bounce.
Iowa is likely to have a lot of chances at punt returns against UNI. How about this gets settled?
One Wild Prediction
It’s hard to make a wild prediction when there is almost no question about the outcome of this game and it is likely that the bench will be cleared by the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, my “wild” prediction is that one of the backup running backs—Xavier Williams, Nathan McNeil or maybe even Brevin Doll—breaks the century mark for rushing yardage in this game.
Go Hawks!
