The Hawkeyes are poised to close out their non-conference slate as well as their season-opening three game home stand on Saturday as they play host to the Northern Iowa Panthers. After thoroughly demolishing the Northern Illinois Huskies 40-0 in their opener, the Hawkeyes struggled a bit in week two, edging out the Iowa State Cyclones 16-13 on a final minute field goal.
Now they’re expected to head into Big Ten play riding some momentum as they play a final tune up game against an FCS opponent in Kinnick. The Hawks are favored by 40.5 points in this one according to FanDuel Sportsbook in a game where the over/under is set at 48.5 total points. That gives us an implied final score of Iowa 44.5, Northern Iowa 4.
Here at The Pants, we’re not far off from the folks in the desert, though we are a bit more conservative. Our consensus final score prediction this week is Iowa 40.75, UNI 5.875 (call it 41-6). That officially puts us on the Panthers with the points and on the under.
As a quick reminder, a week ago we called for a final score of Iowa 30, Iowa State 13 – taking the Hawks giving the points and well on the over. We were wrong on both counts and fall to 1-3 on the season. So please, whatever you do, don’t tail us.
Here’s a look at our individual predictions for tomorrow’s matchup.
JPinIC
If Northern Illinois was supposed to be a tune-up game, this UNI matchup should serve as an early-season bye week to ensure optimal health ahead of a grueling start to the Big Ten schedule. Kirk already said DJV will sit and in my opinion, we should see Moulton and perhaps Lutmer (recall he is on a pitch count dealing with a hamstring tweak) sit this one out as well in prep for that gauntlet to start conference play.
I’m hopeful we get two quarters and one drive out of Hank Brown as starting QB, followed by a full third quarter of Jeremy Hecklinski and a fourth quarter for Jimmy Sullivan. Iowa should be able to run the ball at will against this overmatched Panther front so I expect them to grind out the second half with Williams and McNeil. But I also think we see more passing early than people might expect in a game like this for one reason: Tim Lester is working to change the narrative on this offense and the Tony Diaz show is how you do that. I expect him to be peppered with targets early, boosting his already unreal early season numbers, before sitting most of the second half.
Iowa cruises, but doesn’t cover.
Hawkeyes 38, Northern Iowa 3
HWKTACO
Brevin Doll has lightning quick speed but hasn’t been able to return a kickoff so far in 2026. That may likely change on Saturday. UNI’s kicker that handles kickoffs, Max Bartachek, is a directional kicker, meaning that rather than boot the kickoff out of the end zone so it cannot be returned, he kicks high and into one of the corners so the ball lands around the four-yard line, in hopes of their kick coverage being able to pin the returner deep. An interesting chess match.
UNI’s strength is the offense led by veteran quarterback Jaxon Dailey, a 6-foot-3, 230-pound graduate student, who enters the game operating at a highly efficient 70.5% completion rate. Their defense looks to be a weakness thus far.
UNI head coach Todd Stepsis will have his team ready to battle the Hawkeyes. It won’t take much motivation from Stepsis, though. 71 of the 123 players on UNI’s roster graduated from a high school in Iowa and will enter Kinnick with a huge chip on their shoulder, seeking to prove Iowa wrong for not recruiting them.
Like JPinIC, I also expect Iowa to pass often and early, to get the players experience and learn which players can perform in a game. Only four Iowa wide receivers have caught a pass so far this season: Tony Diaz (15), Reece Vander Zee (5), Jarriett Buie (2), and Evan James (1). Lester will use this game to test who else can get open and make catches. Iowa needs to be aggressive and put this game away early, before the adrenaline kicks into overtime for the Panthers.
Hawkeyes 41, Northern Iowa 6
Braedan Garrett
I was as surprised as anyone Kirk didn’t switch to Jeremy Hecklinski once ISU went up 10-0. Had he not led a scoring drive of his own immediately after, I have no doubt he would’ve been pulled. After that, I think KF knew that game was going to be ugly, so sticking with Brown and minimizing variables as much as possible was the plan. I’m frankly amazed it’s still “OR” on the depth chart this week, and Brown pulling out the win would’ve solidified his role as the starter.
I do think Hank’s performance put him in the drivers seat and he’ll continue to get the lion’s share of snaps this weekend. This UNI team is not the likes of UNI of old which put such a scare into Iowa back in 2009. This should be another NIU-esque bloodbath, but one where the Hawkeye offense gets back on track. One thing I really want to see is Brown/Hecklinski spreading the targets around. Diaz is a playmaker and we should absolutely feed him, but as pointed out above he has three times more catches than Iowa’s next top receiver, RVZ. They’re going to have to rely on other weapons this year, put they have go be given the opportunity first.
The Hawkeye defense did not have a terrible game against the Cyclones. After Iowa State’s first drive of the second half, they didn’t have another drive of longer than 11 yards until the final play of the game. They only had 8 yards in the entire fourth quarter. This is a good defense that is going to continue to improve and I have a hard time seeing the Panthers score much, if at all on Saturday.
That’s a lot of words without much said about this game so here’s a quick rundown: Iowa wins easily, UNI doesn’t find the endzone, and Hank Brown is named the starter going into Ann Arbor.
Iowa 40, UNI 3
Matt Reisener
Iowa hasn’t lost to UNI since 1898, and this isn’t the year the Panthers break their century-long losing streak. The Hawkeyes will be without key players like DJ Vonhamme and Tyler Brown, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kamari Moulton and Zach Lutmer put on pitch counts as they nurse injuries and try to get fully healthy ahead of the most difficult stretch of Iowa’s schedule. Yet the Hawkeyes have enough talent to win comfortably even if they are a bit shorthanded. If anything, Iowa may benefit from opportunities to test out its depth and better integrate players like Xavier Williams, Nathan McNeil, and Evan James into the offense. Hank Brown will almost certainly make his third consecutive start, but I also expect Jeremy Hecklinski to play meaningful snaps.
Iowa 38, UNI 3
David Fidler
I don’t think there will be much to take from this game. Unlike the NIU game, where there was a genuine quarterback competition, and a few positions, such as kicker and defensive end, looked somewhat unsettled, at this point, we mostly know who’s where.
My guess is Iowa runs a real offense for the first half, and then the second half will be a lot of rushing and the bench gets cleared. And UNI has a good offense, on paper, but Iowa isn’t Drake.
Iowa goes into the half up 35-0. UNI scores a late touchdown but misses a two-point conversion.
Iowa: 41 UNI: 6
GlendaleHawk
In 2009 UNI finished 3rd in the MVFC and was ranked 18th in the FCS. They lost to Iowa (barely), South Dakota State (who finished the year ranked 11th), Southern Illinois (finished 6th) and Illinois State (their only real let down) to end the season. That was a pretty good FCS team. Last year UNI was 3-9 and nowhere near being ranked.
Yes, one should always take their opponent seriously, but this should be a game that Iowa handles easily. If not, it could be a long season.
Hank should get the start and stay in until they’re up 21+, then give Heck the reins until the 4th quarter, and the let Jimmy get some run. The 1’s shouldn’t be in this game past halftime. The only question I have is just how out of hand Kirk will allow this one to get? Kirk doesn’t punch down, so the Hawks likely don’t cover.
Iowa 45, UNI 9
HeavyMetalLawyer
I don’t have much to add this week as my colleagues have it pretty much covered. This Panthers squad isn’t nearly as talented as some of the pre-NIL teams that an unprepared Hawkeye team may have struggled with.
Northern’s senior QB Jaxon Dailey has put up some great numbers and I expect that he will be able to find an open man here or there, maybe even to the tune of a touchdown or two. But the idea that the Panthers are going to be able to hang with the Hawks for 4 quarters given that the Hawkeyes have them outmatched in every position group seems unlikely.
The intrigue tomorrow will be seeing how running backs Xavier Williams and Nathan McNeil look in this tune-up game filling in for a banged up Kamari Moulton and L.J. Phillips, and whether Jeremy Hecklinski will play while the game is still in question.
Iowa 42, UNI 7
tnels20
Win comfortably and keep everyone healthy. That needs to be the story by Saturday night. The following three games are as difficult a stretch as I can remember and Iowa will need everyone available for those games.
Tim Lester used game one to show proof of concept with the revised passing game and demonstrated a dominant ground game with it. The following week the rushing attack struggled for three quarters while the air attack provided some consistent results. UNI isn’t going to be able to match the insane physicality that the Iowa State linebackers displayed last week, so the run game will likely look a lot better. Iowa’s next two opponents will be able to do that or at least get close. I’m expected a lot of carries from McNeil and Williams in an attempt keep Moulton fresh for next week.
Diaz has another 10+ targets and Evan James breaks into the end zone twice. Hawks win comfortably and a few of the guys who have major bumps and bruises from last week are able to limit their collisions.
Iowa 41, UNI 10
So there you have it, the Hawks win and pretty comfortably. We roll to Ann Arbor undefeated and looking to move up the polls and the Big Ten standings.
How about you, Hawkeye fans? Let’s hear those predictions in the comments below!
