Through two weeks of this young college football season, we’ve seen quite the roller coaster ride both in Iowa City and across the country. Entering the year, the Big Ten looked like the nation’s preeminent conference. There were a pair of top-5 teams, a trio in the top-10 and a handful of other teams that were dark horse candidates for the College Football Playoffs.
Fast forward just two weeks and we’re down to a single Big Ten team in the top-5, two in the top-10 and several other programs which have suffered embarrassing defeats or near-defeats.
The Hawkeyes, for their part, have avoided any losses and barring something completely unforeseen, they’ll finish their non-conference slate that way. Iowa opened as a 41.5-point favorite this week against FCS Northern Iowa according to FanDuel Sportsbook. That number has trended down a bit to 38.5 points, but the Hawks are all but a lock to be 3-0 entering Big Ten play.
As they do so, they’ll likely be ranked just outside the top-15 nationally. That’s up from the #22 spot they entered the year and does a decent job of hiding just how close they came to being 1-1 entering this non-con finale.
Despite being as large of a favorite against Iowa State as they have been in a decade, the Hawkeyes needed a final minute field goal to emerge victorious 16-13 over the Cyclones a week ago. That came on the heels of a thoroughly impressive performance in week one where Iowa showed off its newest offensive weapons, explosive plays and seemed to answer any questions that may have been outstanding about the offensive and defensive lines.
With those two results seeming to be in direct conflict, we wanted to know where the fanbase stands entering this last non-con matchup. When we polled the community during the offseason, the consensus was this was poised to be a 9-win team (our staff came to roughly the same conclusion). So, has that view shifted at all after watching a dominating week one and a more sloppy week two?
By and large, no. While 40% of the fanbase now feels better or worse, the other 60% feels pretty unchanged on the season’s outlook at this point.
Of that other 40%, the majority has a more optimistic view of the season through two weeks than they did coming into things. That feels a bit surprising given the struggles last week against an Iowa State team that was projected to be an absolute bottom-feeder in 2026. However, the Cyclones have appeared to have life this year under new head coach Jimmy Rogers and we all know anything can happen in El Assico.
So perhaps that outburst against NIU is worth celebrating and things truly are looking up. Or perhaps it has more to do with those struggles around the conference. Iowa’s first Big Ten opponent, Michigan, was #16 in the nation entering the season, but they looked nearly inept in their season opener against Western Michigan before bouncing back for the upset against Oklahoma in week two.
Meanwhile, Ohio State is still a virtual juggernaut, but did fall to #4 Texas a week ago, showing it is possible to take them down. And that trip out west to Washington? The Huskies escaped with a 16-14 win over Utah State in week 2 after beating Wazzou only 24-10 in their opener. Short week west of the Rockies is always a recipe for disaster, but Washington seems more gettable than they did a few weeks ago when they were a top-20 team.
Then there are the border rivals. Wisconsin got absolutely pummeled in their opener against Notre Dame. Minnesota was demolished by unranked Mississippi State. And Illinois took a home loss to unranked Duke last week. That leaves only the completely untested Nebraska Cornhuskers unbeaten among the quadrangle+1 (I’m aware that’s a pentagon, thanks) of hate.
Which is to say, the conference slate does look a bit less daunting than it did two weeks ago and if the Hawkeyes can shake off the hangover of playing Iowa State with this UNI tune-up game, the outlook perhaps should be a bit brighter.
Alas, the Hawkeyes can’t totally sleepwalk through this weekend’s matchup. While Iowa is 17-1 all-time against the Panthers and 17-0 in the last 128 years, there have been some close contests worth remembering.
The Hawks won convincingly in the last meeting between these two in 2018. It was a 38-14 final with Nate Stanley topping 300 yards passing. But in the three meetings prior to that, Iowa won by a combined 18 points. That includes the infamous 2009 debacle.
With the quarterback competition theoretically still ongoing and the most difficult three game stretch of the season staring the Hawkeyes in the face, let’s hope we see Hank Brown create some distance with a Stanley-esque performance on Saturday, ending Iowa’s P4-leading 79-game streak without a 300 yard passer.
If this one is remotely close in the second half, it may be time to sound the alarm bells on the remainder of this season.
