Oddsmakers and bettors have put the underdog narrative on Ole Miss with a three point favorite LSU visiting Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on Saturday.
Never you mind the 13-game home win streak the Rebels (2-0) are carrying into the game. Bets flowing into the sportsbooks have bumped the Tigers (2-0) up from -2.5 to -3 in the last few days signaling a good bit of confidence against Ole Miss as the home team.
Let’s look historically however at how Ole Miss has fared at home against the spread. Yes, it was obviously another head coach, but we’re taking the good with the bad (i.e. Kentucky girlfriend distraction game).
- 2025: 6-3 ATS at home, 4-2 ATS vs. ranked opponents
- 2024: 4-3 ATS at home, 1-1 ATS vs. ranked opponents
- 2023: 4-2-1 ATS at home, 3-2 ATS vs. ranked opponents
So a combined 14-8-1 record against the spread in home games the last three seasons and a combined 8-5 record against the spread versus ranked opponents. The numbers aren’t overwhelmingly in favor of the Rebels football program, but Vaught-Hemingway has become a tougher place to play in the last three seasons.
A big part of that has to do with the work of Pete Golding, his defenses, and ultimately why he was selected to be the head coach of the program. If you were in attendance at the College Football Playoff game against Tulane, you saw an atmosphere like none other, and honestly the vibes at the Charlotte home opener last Saturday were beyond most expectations.
But how much can home field advantage matter in a game of this magnitude? Its very likely Ole Miss will have the majority of the fans in the stadium, but LSU fans typically show up in droves when its team has a good chance to win. With ticket prices on the secondary market soaring into the four digit range, it will be interesting to see the final attendance tally come Saturday.
Both coaches in my opinion are playing up the underdog role knowing players and fans are motivated by it. The truth is the Rebels are expected by many to lose this game despite the records, home field, and returning players. Whether or not its coaching staff can use that as fuel to find a way to win is left to be seen.
