We are closing in on game day in the Cy-Hawk series and we’ve officially reached that time of the week where nobody has any idea what to expect.
The folks in the desert are expecting an Iowa blowout the Hawkeyes nearly a two-touchdown favorite. FanDuel Sportsbook opened with Iowa favored by 12.5 over the summer. That jumped up to 14.5 earlier this week but has now come down to 13.5 with the over/under dipping from 41.5 down to 40.5 as of Friday morning. That gives us an implied final score of Iowa 27.5, Iowa State 13.
Here at The Pants, we’re pretty confident in this one, which should make you all nervous. However, there is certainly a split amongst the staffers in terms of confidence in this one. Our consensus final score prediction is Iowa 29.6, Iowa State 12.6 – call in 30-13. That has us taking the Hawkeyes giving the points and pretty comfortably on the over.
As a quick reminder, a week ago we called for a final score of Iowa 40, NIU 13, taking the Hawks giving the points and the over. We split 1-1 as Iowa held up their end of the bargain, but the Huskies failed to score to put us on the over.
Here’s a look at each of our staff’s individual predictions for this week’s matchup with Iowa State.
Matt Reisener
The Cy-Hawk game is almost always competitive, and Kirk Ferentz has taken several losses to atrocious Iowa State teams that had no business beating the black and gold. But this game feels different. Iowa’s roster is considerably deeper and more talented than Iowa State’s in light of the mass exodus from Ames following Matt Campbell’s departure. New coach Jimmy Rogers is a proven winner, but may have erred in taking shots at Iowa during the offseason—something Iowa’s players and coaches certainly haven’t forgotten as they look to avoid a three-game losing streak against the Cyclones. Factor in the nighttime environment in Kinnick and an Iowa State roster that has barely played together, and this game has all the makings of a one-sided affair.
That’s not to say the Cyclones have no shot to pull the upset. Iowa State managed to rack up six sacks in their opener against Southeast Missouri State, including three by proven edge rusher Isaac Terrell. Iowa is rolling with it’s quarterback platoon for the second straight week, and if the Cyclones can disrupt the rhythm of the passing game by getting consistent pressure, they could force Iowa’s quarterbacks into making the kind of mistakes that allow Iowa State to hang around. If dual threat QB Jaylen Raynor can use his improvisational skills to make a few off-schedule plays, the Cyclones may have a shot to pull the upset. Every indication points to this game once again being Iowa State’s Super Bowl like it was in the pre-Campbell era, so don’t be surprised to see the Clones dig deep into their bag of tricks.
However, it’s far more likely that Iowa can lean on its strength in the trenches, steady run game, and disciplined defense to grind out a comfortable win, even if the passing game does come up short.
Iowa 27, Iowa State 10
JPinIC
I was feeling pretty good about this matchup entering the season. Then the Hawkeyes went out and looked about as good as I could have expected on both sides of the ball in their opener against NIU and I felt even better. Which made me feel worse, because that’s how this works.
There’s no definitive answer at QB which seems to really just come down to consistency given how much better Hank Brown looked in game one vs Kids Day and how much worse Jeremy Hecklinski reportedly looked at open practices vs that public Kids Day showing. But regardless of the QB situation, the run game looks unstoppable and the receiving options on this roster seem to be on par with ISM-Brandon Smith, or even Marvin McNutt-DJK, when considering the Hawkeyes have not just Tony Diaz and Evan James, but RVZ, Jarriett Buie making an ascension and the next great TE DJ Vonnahme. The defense looked better than I expected in the opener and those two things put together should make this game a blowout.
Then I watched the full breakdown of Iowa State from the ANF Podcast folks and that infamous Iowa pessimism has really crept up on me. I think we see the Cyclones take a page from the KF playbook and slow this thing down with the run game, however unsuccessful, but Jaylen Raynor hits on a few shot plays to really put pressure on the Hawkeyes. I foresee at least one interception for an Iowa QB (given Hecklinski looked worse in week one, let’s go with Brown) and this thing will be much more uncomfortable than it should be.
In the end, however, Raynor also turns it over taking shots and Konrardy comes back to earth in this series.
Iowa 20, Iowa State 13
HeavyMetalLawyer
I can honestly say that this year’s hate week has brought me less anxiety than any other. And I am someone who very much against my will still remembers the name Steele Jantz.
This year’s iteration of El Assico will feature an Iowa offense that seems to have a healthy supply of skill position players. That is a rare occurrence in the Cy Hawk series. On the other side, this Cyclone team is building something new after weathering the loss of coach Matt Campbell and the attrition that comes with that in the modern era of college football.
Label me a Jimmy Rodgers skeptic; I’m not buying what he’s selling so far… and even if he is able to get this Cyclone team in position to compete for big 12 titles and playoffs, that is going to take time. The likelihood seems very low that in game 2 of his tenure they are going to beat a Hawkeye team that seems to have much more talent generally.
Admittedly, I have not watched a minute of this Cyclone team yet, so I could be talking out of complete ignorance, but I expect the Hawkeyes to pile it onto little brother this year and I would be surprised if the game is still in question by the end of the 3rd quarter. Much like a lion hunting tuna, the Cyclones are in deep water here, outgunned and outmanned.
Iowa 34, Iowa State 9
HWKTACO
When Iowa is on defense, the ISU player to watch is dual threat Jaylen Raynor, a portal transfer from Arkansas State (that competes in the Sun Belt). Last season with the Red Wolves Jaylen passed for 3,361 yards and rushed for 423 yards and 7 touchdowns. In the Cyclones opening game last week vs Southeast Missouri State he passed for 2 TDs and had two designed QB runs for another 2 TDs. If Phil Parker puts a spy on Raynor early and often throughout the game it will likely be a sign of good things to come. ISU uses heavy sets and will likely test Iowa’s unproven D Line, which will prove interesting, as ISU’s offensive line is a group of portal transfers.
When Iowa is on offense, ISU’s strength is their pass rush and defensive pressure. Last week the Clones recorded six sacks against Southeast Missouri State. An outstanding question regarding Hank Brown is how he will handle pressure from a stronger defensive opponent, and on Saturday we should get our answer.
I watched a portion of this game last week. While ISU contained SEMO most of the game, there were two explosive plays that SEMO had, a 40-yard pass play, and a 44-yard passing play. In the end, with a new coaching staff and so many portal transfers I expect ISU’s QB to receiver timing to be off with poor wide receiver separation, and their pass blocking on offense to break down.
Iowa 31, Iowa State 13
GingerHawk
Both Iowa and Iowa State looked good in their season openers but the competition was not good. This week will be the first real test of the season for both teams.
The Cyclones bring a good, speedy defense that will present a bigger challenge than many fans may suspect for a program that went through so much turnover this offseason. Jimmy Rogers was the South Dakota State defensive coordinator when they visited Kinnick in 2022, a notoriously low scoring affair. But Tim Lester wasn’t Iowa’s OC at that time. Iowa State’s best chance is to keep the game low scoring and to do that they’ll need to be aggressive to force Brown or Hecklinski into making mistakes. I think Lester dials up the right calls to make them pay for that aggression and Iowa offense finally has the playmakers to be aggressive in its own right.
When Iowa State has the ball they’ll rely heavily on QB Jaylen Raynor. ISU only ran for 108 yards and 3.5 YPC against SEMO so at some point he’s going to have to sling it, but if the game turns into a shootout I don’t think they can maintain consistent success. Raynor had a penchant for turnovers during his time at Arkansas State, throwing double digit interceptions the last two seasons. I would expect at least one turnover and possibly one that goes for a score. The Hawkeye defense will take advantage of an offense still getting used to playing together, and in an extremely hostile environment to boot.
I think Kirk really wants this one after dropping two straight to the Clones and three of the last four in the series. And you better believe he wants to make Rogers regret his words in Hilton from December. Kinnick is going to be out for blood and if Iowa gets an early lead it may put ISU into a hole they can’t climb out of.
Iowa 30, Iowa State 16
David Fidler
Call me crazy but I like this Iowa offense. I think it’s finally for real. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not Oregon or Indiana. No, I mean it’s at least average and with the typical Iowa defense, average is all it needs to be. Meanwhile, I am not a believer in the ISU defense. Or rather, it might be average, but average is not good enough because the Clone offense is bad.
I have the game starting close, with the Iowa quarterbacks struggling, but Iowa goes into the half up 13-3. Then the Iowa rushing game leans on the ISU defense and the ISU D breaks. Meanwhile, the Cyclones get desperate which feeds into the bend-don’t-break to the tune of at least three Iowa State turnovers.
Look for another big day for Kamari Moulton and look for Zach Lutmer to deliver Tyler Sash levels of Cyclone-beating.
Iowa 34 Iowa State 10
GlendaleHawk
Predicting the CyHawk game is never an easy thing to do. This game rarely goes the way anyone expects it to, especially when the teams are viewed so disparately by the broader CFB community. No one outside of Ames thinks the Clones have any chance at winning this game, which makes me think that this game will be a lot closer than we’d like.
Iowa State is a completely different team this year, literally. New coaches, new systems, mostly new players, and almost certainly a completely different attitude towards this game. Yeah, they all heard Jimmy Rodgers’ in Hilton, but the vast majority of his team doesn’t have an ingrained dislike of their opponent the way an ISU team normally does, at least not yet. They’ve got some things going for them, but this week they won’t be facing SEMO.
Yeah, we have uncertainty at QB, but the NIU game didn’t leave much uncertainty anywhere else. The OL looks incredible, the defense looks much better than expected, and Iowa’s skill positions may be as good as they’ve ever been going into a week 2 matchup.
Long story short, I’m pretty sure the clones will try to make this game slow and dirty. They’re going to use the playbook that Rodgers used at SDSU when they played Iowa in Kinnick a few years back, but this Iowa team is not that Iowa team. This Iowa team is not winning a game 7-3, this Iowa team can actually make them pay if they stack the box against the run, and it can make them pay if they try to blanket receivers to kill the pass. Iowa wins, but I’m not sure they cover.
Iowa 31 Iowa State 17
So there you have it – Iowa wins comfortably. Or not comfortably. Either way, we think the Hawks escape and the Cy-Hawk trophy returns to Iowa City.
What about you, Hawkeye fans? Let’s hear those score predictions!
