The Iowa Hawkeyes kicked off their 2026 season in style with a 40-0 drubbing of the Northern Illinois Huskies. NIU is the newest member of the Mountain West and clearly a program in transition that is not where it once was.
Now, Iowa pivots from a G6 opponent to a rivalry matchup as the Iowa State Cyclones come to Iowa City. Much like NIU, ISU is a program in transition after head coach Matt Campbell left Ames for Penn State in the offseason. The Cyclones brought in Jimmy Rogers after one season at Washington State. While his high major resume is short, Rogers has a track record of success from his days at South Dakota State.
Like Iowa, Iowa State opened their season without much fret, defeating Southeast Missouri 38-10. The Cyclones attempted just 17 passes on the day, but tallied 195 yards through the air thanks to a number of explosive plays. WR Dominic Overby hauled in two catches in total – one for 40 yards and another for 45. Meanwhile, fellow receiver Omari Hayes tied him for a team-high two catches with one going for 34 and the other for 20 yards. The Hawkeyes will no doubt need to prevent the big play to have a similar outcome as they did in their season opener.
The folks in Vegas think Iowa should be in good shape, however. FanDuel Sportsbook opened with Iowa favored by 12.5 points way back in May before we knew much about the new-look Cyclones. The number jumped to Iowa -14.5 after the opening week of the season.
That’s… a big number for the Cy-Hawk series. The last time either team was favored by 14.5 or more was in 2016. The Hawkeyes were favored by 15.5 in that one, which was also played in Kinnick and Iowa delivered the most lopsided result we’ve seen in the Ferentz era, winning 42-3.
Series History
Saturday will mark the 73rd meeting in the Cy-Hawk series, but just the third in the primetime slot with kickoff slated for 6:30pm CT. The prior two meetings under the lights were also both in Kinnick. Back in 2002, Iowa State let Iowa City with a 36-31 win over the Hawkeyes. The only other primetime matchup? That 2016 drubbing.
The Hawkeyes hold the all-time series lead 46-25, officially. That’s after the vacated win in 2023 thanks to the Cade McNamara debacle. With 2023 not in the record books, Iowa has not officially won this game since 2021 and hasn’t officially won it in Kinnick since 2018. Wild stats given how this series was trending just a few years ago with the Hawkeyes winning 6 consecutive from 2015-2021.
Under head coach Kirk Ferentz, the Hawkeyes are unofficially 14-12 against the Cyclones. That becomes 13-12 with the 2023 win vacated. Iowa is 10-16 against the spread in those meetings. With Rogers in his first year at Iowa State, he is officially 0-0 all-time against the Hawkeyes as his tenure at South Dakota State came in 2023-2024, a year after Iowa infamously beat the Jackrabbits 7-3 in 2022.
As noted above, the line for this one is Iowa -14.5. The Hawkeyes have been favored by 14.5 or more 12 times in series history. They’re 10-2 straight up in those games but just 7-5 against the spread.
It’s worth noting, ISU has never been favored by more than 5.5 in this series. That line came in **checks notes from the AI research assistant** 1979 when Iowa won the game outright. The Cyclones have been favored at all just eight times dating back to 1978.
Iowa has been favored by a touchdown or more against ISU eight times in the Ferentz era. They’re 2-6 against the spread in those matchups and have managed to lose outright three times – 2005, 2007 and 2014.
The Hawkeyes ended the Hayden Fry era in 1998. That 27-9 loss to the Cyclones is a trivia winner on many fronts. It’s the only time Iowa has lost a game when favored by 25+ points dating back to 1978. It’s also the largest spread beat in the Cy-Hawk series history.
Here’s hoping this week looks more like 2016 and nothing at all like 1998.
Here’s a quick look at the details for Saturday.
Date: Saturday, September 12th
Time: 6:30 pm CT
Matchup: Iowa State Cyclones (1-0, 0-0) at #22 Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0, 0-0)
Location: Kinnick Stadium – Iowa City, IA
TV: NBC
Initial Weather Forecast: partly cloudy with temps in the low 80s, 40% chance of rain early
FanDuel Opening Line: Iowa -14.5, O/U 41.5
