We are within a week of the College Football season kicking off with TCU’s Week Zero showdown vs. North Carolina in Dublin. In the Big 12, the conference title race may be the best path for a run to the Playoffs, but the league has dreams of placing multiple teams into the tournament and its teams earning top seeds. As the conferences and fanbases continue to argue over league supremacy, the play on the field will be the ultimate support for each side’s case. While the CFP Committee may ultimately ignore the evidence, it will be critical for Big 12 to put on a good showing during non-conference play to best position the league for the inevitable comparisons. So which teams have the best opportunity to earn marquee wins and make waves on the national scene through the non-conference slate in 2026? Let’s rank the Big 12 out of conference games that will have the biggest impact on the Playoff race this season: Note: Current 2026 ESPN SP+ ranking noted in parentheses for each opponent
TIER 6 – FCS Opponents
Treated like exhibition games to prepare a team for the meat of its schedule, these resume-killers are must-wins while delivering no benefit to a team’s record strength. No matter how good an FCS team turns out to be by the end of the season, if a Big 12 team drops a game here, it’s Big 12 Title or bust and will bring much shame upon that university and the conference. This season every single Big 12 squad has scheduled an FCS match-up and should earn its way to a win.
- BYU vs. Utah Tech (106)
- Oklahoma State vs. Murray State (105)
- UCF vs. Bethune Cookman (102)
- Arizona State vs. Morgan State (94)
- Kansas vs. Long Island (76)
- Kansas State vs. Nicholls (77)
- Iowa State vs. SE Missouri (63)
- TCU vs. Grambling (79)
- Colorado vs. Weber State (54)
- Cincinnati vs. Western Carolina (37)
- Houston vs. Southern (39)
- Baylor vs. Prairie View (40)
- Utah vs. Idaho (30)
- West Virginia vs. UT Martin (36)
- Arizona vs. Northern Arizona (23)
- Texas Tech vs. Abilene Christian (12)
TIER 5 – Shameful Scheduling
For the second straight season, both Houston and Texas Tech are living at the cupcake factory during the non-conference period. The Cougars & Red Raiders are again avoiding any Power conference opponent outside of the Big 12. The strategy worked swimmingly for them both in 2025, as Texas Tech earned participation in the 12-team Playoff and Houston completed a 10-win campaign, each weeping aside the overmatched pastry opponents. Each are again expected to contend in the conference race. Cody Campbell has thrown bags of cash at every politician and transfer portal target again this offseason, attempting to devour the sport and position itself as the Goliath of the sport, meanwhile his team refuses to play anyone but Davids in non-conference play. It would be unlikely to see Sam Houston or Oregon State wield the slingshot well enough to take down TTU.
- Texas Tech vs. Sam Houston (136) – Week 4
- Houston at Georgia Southern (103) – Week 4
- Houston vs. Oregon State (91) – Week 1
- Texas Tech at Oregon State (91) – Week 2
TIER 4 – Cupcake Traps
Placing a lower-tier foe on the schedule is not always shameful, as it is impossible to know exactly the quality of team you will see on the field when the administration arranges the match up. However as it’s drawn up this season, this class of contests must stand alone as its own tier as games that should surely be walkover wins for the Big 12 teams, but these resume landmines must still be navigated. Any loss for the Big 12 out of this tier would be a grave failure for the Big 12 while each victory will have zero national relevance outside of another notch in the win column.
- Kansas vs. MTSU (135) – Week 5
- UCF vs. Georgia State (133) – Week 3
- Arizona vs. Northern Illinois (124) – Week 3
- West Virginia vs. Coastal Carolina (119) – Week 1
- Iowa State vs. Bowling Green (115) – Week 3
- TCU vs. Arkansas State (101) – Week 3
- Baylor vs. Louisiana Tech (100) – Week 3
TIER 3 – G6 Danger Zone
The G6 matchups required a clear tier break in 2026. The above tiers show contest have little reasonable case for the underdogs and any Big 12 loss would be a stunning upset, this tier would be equally damaging but far less shocking. The path to an upset is far more feasible here where capable in-state rivals and darkhorse CFP contenders lurk, looking to deliver a death-blow to a Big 12 resume. The Big 12 should be clearly favored in each of these, but the frisky G6 squads will make it difficult. Don’t be surprised to see an upset out of this group of contests.
- BYU vs. Colorado State (99) – Week 3
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa (96) – Week 1
- Cincinnati vs. Miami Ohio (81) – Week 3
- Kansas State vs. Washington State (85) – Week 2
- Arizona at Washington State (85) – Week 4
- Arizona State vs. Hawaii (84) – Week 6
- Kansas State vs. Tulane (87) – Week 3
TIER 2 – Measuring Sticks
Here is the tier where the Big 12 needs to hit it big. These may not be considered high-profile contests on the national level, these are the games that will be used as the guide post for the league and each program involved. These showdowns against fellow Power 4 competition will put the ceiling (or floor) on clear display for where the league stacks up nationally. Another critical nature of these games is it pits Big 12 teams against programs expected to finish mid to bottom of their respective leagues – if the bottom feeders of the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC pick up victories over the Big 12 it will only serve to perpetuate a negativity towards the league that will be a big resume anchor for SEC-backed talking heads to argue against Big 12 at-large consideration.
Colorado at Northwestern (49) – Week 3
In the final game at its temporary home at the soccer field before moving into the new Ryan Field, Northwestern will be expected to close that chapter with a win over a Colorado program that continues to trend downwards. Expect some offensive fireworks as Northwestern has used its B1G cashflow to bring in Offensive Coordinator Chip Kelly to link up with prolific RB Caleb Komolafe, WR Griffin Wilde, and portal QB AIdan Chiles. Coach Prime and the Buffs again brought in a portal haul as well, headlined by 1,300 yard WR Danny Scudero, and could deliver a huge win for the Big 12 over a supposed Power 2 program.
Cincinnati vs. Boston College (74) – Week 1
This is a must-win for the Big 12, the Bearcats, and head coach Scott Satterfield. Cincy was able to stay above the fray in the Brendan Sorsby fallout after his transfer to Lubbock, but a loss in this game should turn Satterfield’s seat from molten lava hot to surface of the sun level. The Big 12 cannot afford to have mid-table teams losing home games to the team projected to finish last in the ACC. Please don’t embarrass us.
Colorado at Georgia Tech (43) – Week 1
So the Big 12 is placing a high burden on the Buffs to represent the league, with two road Power 4 opportunities, and this one against the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta on Thursday of Week One will be another tough test. GA Tech is expected to be in the upper class of the ACC, a potential conference contender, bringing in Alberto Mendoza at QB, the brother of Heisman Trophy winner Fernando. While there will be perception of a major coaching mismatch in this one, and key injuries for Colorado won’t help, but Coach Prime has a way of getting his squad hyped for the spotlight to start the season, perhaps he can pull off this major victory in the town where he was a two-sport superhero.
West Virginia vs. Virginia (40) – Week 3
A true example of a measuring stick. A projected top-5 team from the ACC vs. a bottom-5 team from the Big 12 on a neutral site, presenting a major opportunity to take a step ahead in conference perception. Former TCU running back Cam Cook joins the Mountaineers after leading the nation in rushing last season; former TCU QB Chandler Morris leaves UVA after leading the Cavaliers to the ACC Championship game last year. Can Rich Rod return WVU to glory or can UVA make another run to the brink of the Playoff? This one will go a long way to tell the story of the season
TCU vs. North Carolina (54) – Week 0
Can the Frogs pull off the encore over the Tar Heels? TCU eviscerated UNC in Chapel Hill to open last season, spoiling Bill Belichick’s collegiate coaching debut in glorious fashion. As the off-field action continues to dominate the narrative around North Carolina over the last year, it has also taken over the pre-season storyline in Fort Worth with the dismissal of safety Jacob Fields, the presumptive starter to replace longtime leader Bud Clark. When the teams finally hit the field in Dublin to formally kick off the 2026-27 college football season, all eyes will be on them, and the result will set the narrative for each and for their respective conferences.
UCF at Pitt (41) – Week 2
Pitt is among the teams expected to compete for a spot as a ritual sacrifice to Miami in the ACC Championship while UCF is among the teams projected in the Big 12 basement. Both playing in stadiums sponsored by Acrisure, we’ll call the one in Orlando “The Bounce House” and the one in Pennsylvania “Heinz Field.” The Knights will roll into Pittsburgh with a new QB with Playoff experience, bringing in fifth-year senior Alonza Barnett from James Madison. Will it be enough to pull off the early season road upset?
Utah vs. Arkansas (47) – Week 2
This one may fly under the radar, but the stakes are supremely high for the Big 12 here. Newly minted head coach Morgan Scalley inherits a ton of experience and talent all over the field, which has the Utes rightly placed among the Big 12 favorites. Arkansas meanwhile also has a new coach in Ryan Silverfield, but enters with a Razorbacks roster projected among the worst in the SEC with a win set at 3.5. Being a night game in Rice-Eccles, the Utes should also carry a significant home field advantage. While most Big 12 fans may continue to cheer against the Utes in all cases given the fan base’s continued online arrogance since joining the league, the Big 12 cannot have one of its top contenders lose at home to a bottom-feeding SEC squad.
TIER 1 – Shock the World
Shoot for the moon, even if you miss you’ll land among the stars be embarrassed on a national stage. These games will stretch the limits of the Big 12, providing insight on if any of these teams or the league can break through the glass ceiling to greater respect in the eyes of the CFP Committee. Each of these will likely have the Big 12 team as double digit underdogs, fighting for its life to have a chance late in the game. Any upset here will surely send shockwaves across the sport and have fans of the other leagues claiming these teams are actually trash anyway and did not even care about playing the game, because the non-conference games Just Mean Less.
Baylor vs. Auburn (26) – Week 1
Auburn with a new head coach and Baylor somehow with Dave Aranda still at the helm. The embattled Baylor coach can help cool his hot seat with a neutral site headliner contest vs. an SEC foe. Auburn imports Byrum Brown at QB, joining new coach Alex Golesh from South Florida, but the Tigers offense loses star WR Cam Coleman. While Auburn gets to play many of the other SEC bottom feeders during league play, it likely needs this win over the Bears to hit over its win total of 6.5. Baylor had Auburn on the ropes last year before a Jackson Arnold 4th down carry turned into a game-sealing touchdown run. This would be the least shocking upset result of this tier. Baylor lost a ton of production but did add former 5-star QB DJ Lagway to lead the offense. He never played against Auburn while conference mates in the SEC, but did play USF, going 23-33 for 222 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the 16-18 loss to the Bulls.
Kansas vs. Missouri (20) – Week 2
The Border War returned in 2025 after more than a decade break as the Jayhawks couldn’t hang on after jumping to a 21-6 first quarter lead. Outside of an influx of RB talent in Lawrence, the KU roster has been depleted of talent even compared to last year’s 5-7 team, so it is tough to imagine Rock Chalk keeping it close in this one, but don’t count out Lance Leipold to scheme up something to make it interesting. Mizzou star RB Ahmad Hardy is set to miss the season opener with injury and looking unlikely to play in this contest, though the Tigers should have plenty of firepower on the rest of the roster to make up for his absence.
Oklahoma State vs. Oregon (2) – Week 2
Not much analysis here – Oregon is one of the favorites to win the National Championship; OK State is coming off consecutive winless Big 12 seasons. The Pokes’ performance in this game last year, along with Mike Gundy continuing to open his mouth to say the dumbest words imaginable, made it clear it was time for a coaching change for OSU. Even with the Eric Morris era now underway in Stillwater, bringing with him an abundance of talent from North Texas and around the transfer portal, there is just no keeping up with the talent accumulation happening in Eugene. Even with the game being in Boone Pickens Stadium, this one being remotely close would surely be a stunner.
Iowa State at Iowa (22) – Week 2
Matt Campbell finally found a new job opening big enough to leave behind the world he built in Ames, moving onward to Penn State and bringing every meaningful piece from the ISU roster with him. Jaylen Raynor is now at QB after starting 37 games over the last three seasons at Arkansas State. Even if the Cyclones had retained Campbell and the roster, Iowa is expected to compete in the upper tier of the Big Ten this season and has a roster loaded with depth and experience. Weird stuff always happens in Cy-Hawk, but an ISU road upset in Kinnick Stadium would qualify as a shock the world result.
Arizona State at Texas A&M (9) – Week 2
The Sun Devils got demolished with offseason departures: QB1 to LSU, RB1 to Texas, and WR1 to the NFL as a top ten Draft Pick. A&M meanwhile has one of the nation’s best rosters on paper, looking to take another leap forward after a year that saw the Aggies open the season 11-0 before dropping its final two games to rival Texas and Miami at home in the CFP First Round. In the old days, the Aggies would be seen as a clear regression candidate in 2026, having escaped many one-score games against teams it should have handled with ease. However in the portal and NIL era, there’s no reason to believe Mike Elko hasn’t fully reloaded the cupboard and has the team ready for a more dominant 2026-27. Every metric will suggest A&M should be three-score favorites, but Kenny Dillingham will have the Devils in position to pull the stunner in College Station.
BYU vs. Notre Dame (3) – Week 7
This is the game BYU has desperately needed the last two seasons in order to make a real case for an at-large invitation into the College Football Playoff. Every national outlet is looking for an excuse to keep that Big 12 squad under the surface, but you take down Committee darling Notre Dame, your at-large case becomes undeniable; see Miami last season which couldn’t even muster a trip to the ACC Championship, but earned a coveted at-large spot because it had that victory over the Irish. Now that the CFP rules have changed to essentially grant Notre Dame an auto bid to the tournament, perhaps the Irish will have less concern about individual games throughout the season. This is one of just four road games for Notre Dame this season, and the only one that could be considered “loseable.” The Irish could forfeit the game and still easily cruise into the Playoffs, so perhaps its two-deep gets a rest into the Bye week before the physical demands of Navy & Miami the following weeks. It wouldn’t be the first time the Irish ducked the Cougars, as Marcus Freeman’s squad played spoiled child after being left out of last season’s CFP, choosing to forego the postseason rather than play BYU in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. If BYU can actually deliver a win over one of the sport’s biggest brands, it’ll be a massive impact to the national narrative into the season’s stretch run.
