Locks
NFL (1 Unit) Houston Texans/New England Patriots Under 40.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ABC
I’ve seen a lot of people trying to make the case for the over here, but I just don’t see it. There’s too much quality defense for both teams, combined with offensive weakness, combined with possibly adverse weather conditions, for me to see anything but a dead under. The Texans are bringing both the elite defense and the weak offense to this game, with the league’s best defensive metrics but no Nico Collins. They’re also bringing CJ Stroud who is the best QB to the under the past 3 seasons.
This is technically a matchup of the league’s best defense by EPA against the league’s best offense by EPA, but this is a different kind of game for the Patriots. After coasting through the easiest schedule this century, New England finally faces a high level defense that is firing on all cylinders. I think the Texans are able to make Drake Maye look pedestrian, while their sub-pedestrian offense struggles in cold and rainy weather, holding this under the low total.
NFL Sunday Divisional Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.75 Unit – Christian Kirk Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Jayden Higgins Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Rhamondre Stevenson Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Drake Maye Alt Over 7.5 Rush Attempts (+125)
1 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Blake Corum Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Deandre Swift Over 71.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Colston Loveland Alt Over 5.5 Receptions (+110)
0.5 Unit – Luther Burden Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
NBA (1 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/Denver Nuggets First Quarter Over 54.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on Altitude
I think scoring is making a comeback in the NBA after a week-plus stretch of unders cashing like crazy. I don’t know what caused the slump, I don’t know what’s pulling the whole league out of it at once, but I’m here for the turnaround. If things are picking up offensively, then this number is far too low for the kinds of teams involved in this game.
The Hornets make it their business to have wild first quarters, allowing the third-most scoring and 31.7 points on average in road games, while putting up 30.0 of their own. The Nuggets might be extremely shorthanded, but they can still take advantage of that, especially with Charlotte coming in on no rest. The Hornets played a high-possessions game last night and now go to altitude, to face a Nuggets team that’s also on a back-to-back. Denver games on no rest are 6-1 to the over this season, best in the league, and I think it gets started early so this total is laughably low.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arizona St/Houston Under 144.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:30 PM CT on ESPN
This is the third time in the past four games for Houston that they’ve seen a total in the 140’s, and I’m surprised books keep making this mistake. It’s the college basketball equivalent of the Jets laying points, it just shouldn’t happen, and I’m jumping in on the under as a result. It’s understandable to look at Arizona State and see that they’re 14-3 over this total on the season, but they haven’t faced this kind of opponent yet.
Tempo, some bad defense, and an ability to get to the free throw line has caused ASU games to skew higher scoring, but Houston just isn’t going to allow that kind of game to unfold. The Cougars will slow this to a crawl on their home floor, and put the clamps down defensively like they always do. Houston has already locked down an elite Big12 offense in holding Texas Tech to 65 points, and the Sun Devils are not on that level offensively. Those two games with totals in the 140’s didn’t even make it to 135 points, and I think the potential is there for a similar result today.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 26-25 (+2.09 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
