There has to be a small contingency of San Francisco 49ers fans who fleetingly wondered what would have happened if the Niners kept Sam Darnold after the 2023 season.
Brock Purdy is almost universally beloved in the Bay Area. Still, Darnold led the Minnesota Vikings and then the Seattle Seahawks to 14-3 records and earned Pro Bowl nominations in the past two seasons. On Saturday, his 110.9 quarterback rating more than doubled Purdy’s 54.6 in Seattle’s 41-6 rout of the Niners.
Still, the 49ers don’t have reason to harbor the same level of regret as the Vikings. Darnold threw for 35 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and 4,319 yards in Minnesota last year. It’s eerily similar to his 25-touchdown, 14-interception, 4,048-yard stat line with the Seahawks this season.
Meanwhile, J.J. McCarthy threw for 11 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and 1,632 yards as a first-year starter this season. He played in only 10 games this season, and the Vikings have not committed to him as their starter next year. Still, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah doesn’t want to dwell on the past.
“I always go back to what we thought at the time,” Adofo-Mensah said at his end-of-season press conference. “It’s easier to kind of go and be revisionist and results-based. But going through what we had at the time, I still understood why we did what we did.”
Darnold exited last season with his two worst performances of the year. He completed only 43.9% of his passes and threw for 166 yards in Week 18 at Detroit. Darnold followed that up by going 25 for 40 for 245 yards, with a touchdown and a pick, in a neutral-site playoff game against the Los Angeles Rams.
The Vikings had drafted J.J. McCarthy to be their franchise quarterback. They also brought in Daniel Jones after the New York Giants released him, and he looked like a reliable veteran backup for McCarthy.
However, Jones saw a better opportunity to compete for a starting job with the Indianapolis Colts. In training camp, he beat out Anthony Richardson, the fourth-overall pick in 2023. Jones threw for 3,101 yards, with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions, leading Indianapolis to an 8-5 record before tearing his Achilles tendon in Week 14.
“I think [Jones] being here was something that we kind of considered and thought would impact his decision,” Adofo-Mensah admitted in his end-of-the-season press conference. “But ultimately, there are free agents. [In terms of] learning lessons, [from an execution standpoint], you have to treat it as such, no matter what the conversation is or relationships are.”
The Vikings were likely overconfident that they could re-sign Jones. The 28-year-old quarterback probably felt Minnesota wanted McCarthy to start this year. Therefore, it wouldn’t be an open camp competition.
To use a Kwesi term, the Vikings also probably over-indexed on Sam Darnold’s final two games. He threw an accurate deep ball most of the year, and Justin Jefferson was productive with him under center. Darnold played well enough most of the season that Week 18 and the first-round playoff games appeared to be outliers.
Still, Darnold had other concerns. He played poorly in the middle of the season and panicked in big games against the Lions and Rams. Ultimately, the Vikings likely always viewed him as someone who could bridge the gap until McCarthy was ready.
The football world thought the Rams exposed Darnold again when they picked him off four times in Week 10. Darnold panicked again against a familiar foe. Maybe he can’t play in big games.
However, Darnold settled in after that. He went 7-0 in Seattle’s final seven games, throwing for 1,507 yards, with eight touchdowns and four picks. He led the Seahawks to victory over the Niners in Week 18, and then beat them again in the playoffs.
Minnesota could have franchise-tagged Darnold and given McCarthy a year to develop under him. It would have given the Vikings options. If Darnold plays well, they could trade McCarthy. Or, if Darnold didn’t, they can move on to the player they drafted 10th overall.
But they would have had to be willing to go all-in on Sam Darnold if he played well. That means giving him a large extension after this season and moving on from developing J.J. McCarthy. It feels like the Vikings never would have entertained that idea. As a result, they enter next offseason with much uncertainty, while the Seahawks advance in the playoffs.
