Locks
NCAA CFP (1 Unit) Indiana Team Total Over 28 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
There are a lot of sharp opinions saying that Miami is the side in this game. I’m going to both agree and disagree at the same time, which keeps me from laying an outsized number like 8.5 on Indiana, but still has me backing them this way. What I can’t get on board with for the Hurricanes is their defense being able to stop an elite, highly precise, and highly motivated Indiana offense that isn’t likely to let up if they get an advantage.
Miami benefited from a down ACC this season, and then two advantageous situations against CFP opponents who couldn’t exploit their weakness. That’s in the second level of the defense, where there are plenty of open throwing windows, highlighted by what Ole Miss was able to do to them last round. Indiana is too well-coached not to pinpoint all those weaknesses and have arguably the country’s best offense, led by the Heisman winner, go out and take advantage. That’s simply what I see happening here, as an extremely well-prepared Hoosiers team looks to stamp their dominant run through the CFP.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Indiana First Half Team Total Over 14 (+100; Odds via Fanduel)
A little bit of line movement towards Miami for this game has lowered Indiana’s team totals into these ranges where I think the worst case is a push, but I’m expecting far more. I think Indiana can get off to a fast start on their way to the full-game team total thanks to a couple of key points.
The first is that Miami will be without safety Xavier Lucas for the first half due to a targeting ejection. The second is that Indiana will be looking to throw early, both to exploit the absence of Lucas and to allow Fernando Mendoza to make a statement to his hometown team that didn’t want him. Curt Cignetti coaches like he’s a vengeful guy, and I think a lot of early aggressiveness from IU will carry them to a big first half number.
Bonus CFP Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.75 Unit – Fernando Mendoza Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Mark Fletcher Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Elijah Sarratt Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Charlie Becker Longest Reception Over 24.5 Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Omar Cooper Over 3.5 Receptions (+100)
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-24 (-3.2 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
