Locks
NFL (1 Unit) SF 49ers/Seattle Seahawks Under 45.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FOX
If reports about Sam Darnold’s oblique injury are truly as bad as they could be, then there’s no number low enough for this game. The Seattle defense is not the same as it’s been for most of the season, with the Kubiak sugar high finally wearing off. It doesn’t take much to have success against this 49ers defense, but I would not trust Drew Lock to step in and produce a lot of points.
It would be up to the Seattle defense to carry them in that situation, and maybe regardless if it’s just a banged-up Darnold tonight. Seattle’s defense has already done a good job against the San Fran offense this season, especially this shorthanded version with no George Kittle now. With the regular season meetings only combining for 46 total points, and divisional games featuring a Wild Card team going 70% under since 2003, I’ll roll with a low-scoring affair again tonight.
Bonus NFL Divisional Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – James Cook Over 95.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – RJ Harvey Over 79.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Bo Nix Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jaleel McLaughlin Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Khalil Shakir Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Ken Walker Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Jake Tonges Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Kyle Juszczyk Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder/Miami Heat First Quarter Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN
This total should be above 60 with the way Miami plays and the potential OKC’s offense has every time it takes the floor. That was on display in the first meeting on Sunday with 66 points in the first quarter, and these teams that are both top-3 in first quarter scoring should replicate that. Miami has better defense at home overall, probably what contributes to this lower number, but that defense has been failing them in general lately. The Thunder seem to be back on the rails to some extent after their weird stretch, and if they’re back to their usual selves, they can dominate this Heat defense and make this total look far too low.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Hawaii/UC Santa Barbara Under 143.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
With this kind of matchup, even though Hawaii is playing off the island, it’s one where points should be at a premium. Hawaii typically locks the defense down even more at home, but it’s been traveling well too as the Warriors are up to 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency and an 11-3 record to the under. Most importantly is their three-point defense, ranked third nationally in percentage allowed, and should lock down a Santa Barbara team that relies heavily on the three-ball. There won’t be many three’s out of Hawaii either as they’re 267th in three-point shooting, and they’ll also get bogged down here by UCSB’s crawling tempo. I’d be surprised to see this game touch the 140’s so I like the under tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-30 (-4.16 Units) – Recommend: Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
