We have speculated about some relievers the Nats could target in the past, but with the deadline just a week away, it is time to do it again. I am going to take a look at three potential hidden gems the Nats could look at. These guys will not grab a ton of headlines, but they could be impactful pieces down the stretch and beyond.
The first name to watch is actually another player with Boston connections. Brennan Bernardino was on the Red Sox last year, but got traded to the Rockies this offseason. The whole bullpen is a problem for the Nats, but finding a left handed arm has to be a priority.
The likes of Tom Cosgrove and Carson Palquist just are not enough. Even the injured duo of PJ Poulin and Richard Lovelady could be upgraded. Bernardino is like a better version of all those guys. He is another low slot lefty who does not throw hard. However, he does a masterful job limiting hard contact. Bernardino is in the 96th percentile for average exit velocity and hard hit rate.
Over the past four seasons Bernardino has a 3.31 ERA while averaging over 50 outings a season. This season has been his most impressive, posting a 2.74 ERA while playing half his games at Coors Field. Bernardino has proven he can handle any environment and that his soft contact focused game can hold up over many years.
While Bernardino has 3 years of control after this season, he will not be overly expensive since he is already 34 years old. The Nats have been desperately pursuing a low slot lefty who can give them reliable innings. Why not go after one of the best ones in the game in Bernardino.
My second option is a much riskier bet than Bernardino. In fact, Elvis Alvarado is pretty much the exact opposite pitcher. The 6’6 righty relies heavily on his fastball which averages 99 MPH. However, he has not had great results this season with a 5.40 ERA. Alvarado has great upside though, and was good last season, posting a 3.19 ERA.
Right now, Alvarado’s biggest issue is keeping the ball off the barrel. His 19.2% barrel rate is absolutely appalling. For context, only James Wood has a higher barrel rate than that among qualified hitters. If Alvarado can clean that up, he can be very effective though.
He strikes out over 29% of hitters and gets a ton of whiffs from all his pitches. Right now, Alvarado feels like he is too fastball heavy. I wonder if the Nats would have him bump up his 3% splitter usage. In limited usage, the split has been effective. Alvarado’s slider gets whiffs, but has been too barrel prone.
If the Nats can find him a great second pitch, he has closer level stuff. The fastball and sinker are borderline elite. Leaving Sacramento could also help him, both developmentally and just leaving that ballpark. It would be a risky move, but the reward is very high. One final interesting note on Alvarado is that he originally signed with the Nats as an outfielder out of the Dominican Republic before converting into a pitcher.
The last player I want to take a look at is Chase Silseth. I have talked about the idea of trading for other Halos arms, most notably Jose Soriano and Sam Bachman. However, I think Silseth is a very intriguing arm who could help out the bullpen.
Silseth was a starter for a while, but he has moved to the bullpen and looks very good. He has a 2.79 ERA on the season with 47 strikeouts in 38.2 innings. Silseth’s four pitch mix is built for swing and miss. It pops on stuff models and consistently gets empty swings. That is what the Nats need badly.
The 26 year old gets a ton of whiffs on his 4-seamer, split and sweeper. He will also mix in a sinker to get the occasional ground ball. Silseth’s heater gets good ride from a slightly below average slot, which baffles hitters. He has a 36.8% whiff rate on his 4-seamer, which is nuts for a fastball.
His split pairs very well off the fastball, looking the same out of the hand before diving off the table. Silseth also gets a ton of spin on his sweeper. I think there could be even more upside here and could even be moved back into the rotation at some point.
However, he will need to improve his control. It is his big weakness right now. A 12.4% walk rate is high, but manageable for a reliever. It does make him a little unreliable at times. Think of Silseth as an upgraded version of Clayton Beeter, with a deeper mix and slightly better control.
I do think Toboni will bring in a reliever or two, but it will be someone along these lines. It would be surprising to see him make a big splash for a Josh Hader or Mason Miller. However, I think he will be active in this range of the reliever market. He can trade from his excess of infield depth or some guys who are approaching Rule 5 eligibility.
This kind of trade just makes too much sense and would be a good message to send to the clubhouse. There will be some guys sold off, but I really believe there will be buying as well. The buying will be for this year, but also the next few years. Balancing the present and the future is something Paul Toboni will have to thread the needle on this deadline season.
