Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Hawks -4 @ Portland Trail Blazers (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on KUNP
It’s obvious that the Hawks are still adjusting to life without Trae Young while adding CJ McCollum into the fold. They’ve had two wildly different results the past two games, looking amazing in Golden State and then getting blown out by the Lakers on Tuesday night. But that puts them in a good bounce back spot here against a Portland team that’s very shorthanded.
The Blazers should be without Deni Avdija again tonight, and likely Jerami Grant as well, forcing a lineup construction that has not gone well for them. Portland really struggles to score without Avdija, and the excellent defensive backcourt of Atlanta will make that even tougher. This is already a massive shooting mismatch both overall and from deep, plus the Hawks are one of the league’s best ATS teams in road games, so I’ll lay the short number expecting a big bounce back performance.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/LA Lakers Over 232.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on Spectrum Sports Net
This is some pretty lazy oddsmaking on the total tonight. The Lakers average 116.5 PPG on offense, while giving up 116.4 PPG on defense. The Hornets meanwhile score 116.1 PPG while giving up 116.7 defensively, so wow, I wonder why this total is at 232.5 tonight. So from a baseline perspective it’s a pretty fair number, but I think there are some elements that will push it over.
First of all this is a Lakers home game, and those have gone 14-4 to the over which is the best in the league. The Lakers also woke up on Tuesday with 141 points after a rough stretch, and if they carry that offensive energy into tonight we’ll see plenty of points. I’m not sure the Charlotte defense will have the energy to stop them, as the Hornets have been in LA since Sunday. That’s too much opportunity to catch the LA flu, so that weakened defense plus some excellent shooting on both teams can carry this over the number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Green Bay -2.5 @ Cleveland St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’m shocked at what I’m doing here, laying points with last year’s laughingstock of college basketball. But credit to Doug Gottlieb and this Green Bay program for turning things around, and this game is still a buy-low point for a team that’s rolling. The Phoenix have started 5-2 straight up and ATS in conference play, taking advantage of the weak Horizon League competition.
That’s what they’ll see more of tonight in Cleveland State, as the Vikings are one of the worst teams in the country, especially on defense where they have the 12th-worst adjusted efficiency. The one thing they do well, shoot three’s, is neutralized by Green Bay’s ability to limit three-point attempts and production. Otherwise this is a case of a bad team facing a not-great-but-improving team, and I’ll back the squad on the rise here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Gonzaga @ Washington St +18.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on CBSSN
Fading Gonzaga can be terrifying, especially in conference play. But this new-look WCC is not full of pushovers, and that includes Washington State who should match up fairly well with the Zags here. Wazzu played a tough non-conference schedule, was never blown out by anyone, and has been steadily improving since. This is a team that should be able to somewhat slow down what Gonzaga wants to do offensively which is fly to the rim.
Gonzaga lives by the two, having one of the lowest three-point rates in the whole country, so if the Cougars can limit that in any way they’ll stay competitive. Wazzu has been good at slowing opponents down, and is also 4th nationally at keeping teams off the offensive glass, so they’re built to slow Gonzaga’s transition attack and force tougher two’s. Success in that department will keep them in this game, making such a big number too much to lay in a conference road game.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-29 (-3.21 Units) – Recommend: Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
