You’ve heard this phrase a lot in the NFL over the last decade: Nickel is the new base. In some ways that’s true, but it’s really more like “nickel is the new base, when the opposing offense wants it to be.”
Most NFL teams still match their defensive personnel to what opposing offenses throw out there, and the Green Bay Packers are no different. In general, defenses want to play as many cornerbacks and nickelbacks as the opposing offense has receivers.
So when offenses are in 11 personnel (three receivers, one back and one tight end) sets, defenses tend to play Nickel — which allows for a slot defender to “match” a slot receiver on the field. So far in 2026, the Packers have played 291 of their 292 snaps when they’ve faced 11 personnel offenses in Nickel (or Dime) sets — 99.7 percent.
When opposing offenses play heavier looks, be it multiple backs, multiple tight ends or even sets with extra offensive linemen or defensive linemen, NFL teams still match that with “base” personnel (a 3-4 in the Packers’ case) an extra body in the box.
This year, Green Bay defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon’s defense has played 75.9 percent of their snaps against these personnel packages (12/13/21/22) with a base 3-4 defense. No third receiver? That means no slot defender on the field. That’s the basic math being done league-wide.
So is nickel the new base? Really only when the offense is playing 11 personnel. This, obviously, varies a lot team-by-team.
For example, last week the Packers faced the Dallas Cowboys, who have played 73 percent of their snaps in 11 personnel in 2026, the third-highest rate in the NFL. Against Green Bay, for whatever reason, they averaged 1.0 running backs per play and 1.1 tight ends per play — essentially living in 11 personnel full-time, even more so than their season-long averages.
From my perspective, I feel like the Packers caught a break. Green Bay, which almost always carries five interior defensive linemen on a 48-man gameday roster, was only able to carry four big bodies for the game because of Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Ford going on the injured reserve. Rookie Chris McClellan had to take over the starting 3-4 nose tackle spot in “base” looks for the first time, in place of Ford, and the only defensive lineman on the sideline when the starters were out there for limited 3-4 defense looks was Anthony Campbell, who had played all of nine career NFL snaps coming into the game. On top of that, Green Bay’s Will linebacker position is a rotation between Isaiah McDuffie and Ty’Ron Hopper right now, as starter Edgerrin Cooper is now on the injured reserve.
Campbell ended up playing 32 defensive snaps for the Packers in Week 6, even with the Cowboys playing mostly 11 personnel looks that mostly kept Green Bay to playing two defensive tackles at a time for most of the game. With how the Packers’ lack of depth at the position played out on the defensive line, Dallas should have tried to wear out Green Bay’s lack of numbers with multiple tight end looks (with slot defender Javon Bullard sidelined because of personnel matching) and tried to win that game in the second half against an exhausted front. Instead, Bullard played six of every seven snaps against the Cowboys.
The Packers dodged a bullet, but that doesn’t mean that they’re out of the woods. This week, they’ll play a Detroit Lions team that likes to play a much heavier form of offense than Dallas. The Lions only play 11 personnel 58 percent of the time, a below-average rate in the NFL. They like to use multiple tight ends, or even linemen (both offensive or defensive) instead of that extra slot receiver.
They don’t use multiple backs (average 1.0 backs played per play), but they play a second tight end (or extra lineman) close to every other play (1.5 tight ends per play).
It will be interesting to see if the Packers call up one of their two practice squad interior defensive linemen, David Blay Jr. or Mazi Smith, to add some depth to the game-day roster this week, but if Green Bay doesn’t, they’ll have to make it through with four linemen for a second straight game. This time, though, they won’t be playing against a team that just wants to play with a full-time slot receiver, they’ll be going against an offense that wants to play heavy offensive looks about every other play, the same looks that have forced an extra defensive lineman on the field for more than three-quarters of the Packers’ defensive snaps in those situations throughout the season.
