This is the third and final part of a three-article series looking at the hypothetical trade value of three of the Colts’ biggest stars. This one is about Quenton Nelson. You can click here to read the previous two articles on Jonathan Taylor and DeForest Buckner.
As with Taylor and Buckner, this is not an argument that Indianapolis should trade Nelson. The Colts probably should not be looking to move any of these players unless the season falls apart or another team comes calling with an offer that is too good to ignore. The point of the series is simply to determine what these players would realistically be worth if serious trade interest developed around the deadline.
Of the three players, Nelson might be the most difficult to evaluate. He is 30 years old, still one of the best offensive linemen in football and has arguably the strongest individual résumé of anyone currently on the Colts roster. However, he plays a position that has historically struggled to command significant draft capital in trades, and his contract expires after this season.
That combination makes determining his value a lot more complicated than simply looking at his performance.
Nelson is still one of the NFL’s best guards
There really is not much debate about Nelson’s ability. Since Indianapolis selected him sixth overall in 2018, he has been one of the league’s most consistent and dominant offensive linemen.
Nelson has made the Pro Bowl in all eight of his completed NFL seasons, becoming just the second offensive lineman in league history to accomplish that feat. He has also earned six All-Pro selections, including three consecutive First-Team honors to begin his career. He is already building a very convincing Hall of Fame résumé, and at 30 years old, there is still plenty of reason to believe he has several productive seasons ahead of him.
His recent performance only strengthens that argument.
Nelson remains a dominant run blocker, capable of moving defenders off the line of scrimmage and creating running lanes that simply would not exist with an average guard. He is also a reliable pass protector and has been one of the few constants on an Indianapolis offensive line that has experienced considerable turnover around him.
There is no reason to believe a team acquiring Nelson would be paying for a player whose best football is already behind him. He is still performing at an elite level, and that should make him an attractive addition for teams looking to improve their offensive line.
The trade comparisons are surprisingly underwhelming
This is where Nelson’s evaluation gets interesting.
The best comparison is Joe Thuney, whom the Kansas City Chiefs traded to the Chicago Bears in March 2025 for a 2026 fourth-round pick. Thuney was 32 years old at the time and coming off another outstanding season. He had earned First-Team All-Pro honors, helped Kansas City reach its third consecutive Super Bowl and established himself as one of the most dependable interior offensive linemen in football. He had even demonstrated the versatility to play left tackle when the Chiefs needed him there. Despite all of that, Kansas City received just a fourth-round selection. There were reasons for the relatively modest return. Thuney was entering the final year of his contract, carried a substantial salary and the Chiefs needed financial flexibility. Chicago was also acquiring a player who would likely require another expensive contract to remain with the organization beyond 2025. The Bears eventually signed Thuney to a two-year, $35 million extension, meaning they surrendered just a fourth-round pick to acquire one of the NFL’s best guards before committing to him financially.
Another comparison is Jonah Jackson, whom the Los Angeles Rams traded to Chicago for a sixth-round pick during that same offseason. Jackson was only 28 years old and had previously made the Pro Bowl, but his value had declined considerably following an injury-plagued season in Los Angeles. Nelson is obviously a much much better player than Jackson, and that sixth-round return should not be considered a particularly useful indication of his value. Thuney, on the other hand, presents a legitimate benchmark.
Nelson is two years younger than Thuney was when Kansas City traded him and has an equally impressive, if not better, individual résumé. He is also still playing at an exceptionally high level, which should make him more valuable to a team considering a long-term extension. However, Thuney’s return shows just how difficult it can be to extract premium draft capital for an expensive veteran guard, regardless of how talented he is.
The positional difference matters, too. Teams have historically been much more willing to surrender first- and second-round picks for offensive tackles, particularly those capable of protecting a quarterback’s blind side. Guards are certainly important, especially with the number of dominant interior defensive linemen around the league, but the trade market has rarely reflected the same level of urgency.
Nelson may be one of the best players at his position, but that does not automatically make him worth a first- or second-round pick.
His contract makes him a potential rental
Like Buckner, Nelson is entering the final months of his current contract.
He signed a four-year, $80 million extension in 2022, making him the highest-paid guard in NFL history at the time. That deal expires after the 2026 season, meaning any team acquiring him at the deadline would have contractual control for only the remainder of the year.
His current cap hit is $24.2 million, although that number is somewhat misleading when discussing a potential trade.
Nelson has a $16 million base salary this season, along with a $2 million roster bonus that Indianapolis has already paid. His $6.2 million prorated signing-bonus charge would also remain with the Colts, meaning an acquiring team would only be responsible for the remaining portion of his base salary.
At approximately the halfway point of the season, that would amount to around $8 million, depending on the exact timing of the trade.
That is a manageable number for some contenders, particularly those with sufficient cap flexibility or the ability to restructure other contracts. The bigger concern would be what happens after the season.
Nelson will be 31 next year and could reasonably expect another lucrative multiyear deal. Considering the continued growth of the offensive guard market, it would not be surprising if he sought a contract worth more than $25 million annually.
An acquiring team would therefore have to decide whether it wants to surrender valuable draft capital for a player it may only control for a few months, or commit significant money to a guard entering his 30s.
That is a difficult combination, especially when considering the fourth-round pick Kansas City accepted for Thuney under similar contractual circumstances.
How much longer can Nelson play at this level?
This is where I think Nelson has a stronger argument than either Buckner or Taylor. At 30 years old, he is certainly no longer a young player, but offensive guards can remain highly productive well into their 30s. Much of the position relies on strength, technique, leverage and experience, all of which can help compensate for the gradual athletic decline that comes with age.
Thuney is a good example. He was still one of the league’s best guards at 32 and earned another substantial contract from Chicago. Zack Martin also remained among the NFL’s premier interior linemen into his 30s before injuries eventually caught up with him.
Nelson has the physical profile to follow a similar path. At 6-foot-5 and approximately 330 pounds, he possesses exceptional natural strength and has spent years developing the technique and understanding necessary to consistently win against some of the best defensive linemen in football. His durability is another important factor. Nelson has started at least 15 games in seven of his eight completed NFL seasons, including all 17 games in 2024 and 2025. There have been injuries along the way, but nothing that suggests his body is approaching a point where a significant decline should be expected. I would be comfortable projecting another three or four quality seasons from Nelson, provided he remains healthy. That does not mean he will necessarily maintain his current All-Pro level throughout that period, but there is little reason to believe he cannot remain a very good starting guard into his mid-30s.
For a team interested in extending him, that potential longevity is important. Unlike Buckner, whose future beyond the next couple of seasons is somewhat uncertain, Nelson could realistically provide several more years of high-level play.
The difficulty is that those future seasons are not included in his current contract. Any team that wants to secure them would have to negotiate and pay for them separately.
Who could use Nelson?
The market for Nelson would be somewhat unusual. Almost every team in the league would benefit from adding him, but relatively few would be willing to surrender a meaningful draft pick while simultaneously committing to another expensive contract.
Minnesota is one of the more interesting possibilities. The Vikings have experienced offensive line issues and have already been linked to the possibility of pursuing a significant upgrade before the trade deadline. Nelson would immediately strengthen their interior protection and provide an established veteran presence for an offense that could benefit enormously from greater consistency up front.
Baltimore is another team worth considering. The Ravens have invested heavily in their offensive line, including their acquisition of center Cam Jurgens, but there has already been discussion about whether they should pursue Nelson following the Colts’ organizational changes. Adding an All-Pro guard would give Baltimore another powerful blocker capable of improving both its running game and interior pass protection.
The biggest obstacle would be the financial commitment, particularly for a franchise that has already allocated considerable resources to other areas of its roster.
The New York Giants also make some sense, although their situation is different. Under John Harbaugh, New York has reason to prioritize building a more physical offensive line, and Nelson would fit that approach extremely well. The Giants would have to evaluate whether surrendering draft capital for a 30-year-old guard is consistent with their longer-term plans, but his ability to provide several more quality seasons makes the idea worth considering. If JJ McCarthy turns the team around, they could win that garbage division.
Las Vegas is another potential destination, particularly if the Raiders are looking beyond 2026. The Raiders have invested in several positions along their offensive line, but left guard remains an area where Nelson could provide an enormous upgrade. The appeal would be less about acquiring a short-term rental for a playoff push and more about bringing in an established All-Pro who could anchor the interior for the next several seasons.
Those are only a few possibilities, but they illustrate the challenge in determining Nelson’s market. He is talented enough to improve almost any team, yet the combination of his contract, age and positional value makes finding a realistic trade partner considerably more difficult.
So, what is Quenton Nelson worth?
I think Nelson has the strongest argument of the three players in this series for retaining a high level of performance over the next several seasons. He is still one of the best guards in football, has been remarkably consistent throughout his career and is young enough to justify another substantial contract. Unlike Taylor, whose position comes with considerable workload concerns, or Buckner, who is already 32 and approaching the later stages of his career, Nelson has a fairly convincing case for another three or four productive seasons.
However, the Thuney trade is difficult to overlook. Kansas City received only a fourth-round pick for an elite guard who was still performing at an All-Pro level. Nelson is younger and arguably has more productive football ahead of him, but the two players share the same contractual concerns, and neither plays a position that typically commands an enormous return.
My valuation would be:
A 2027 third-round pick.
I think there is a reasonable argument for a second-round selection, particularly if multiple contenders become interested and one believes Nelson could be the missing piece on its offensive line. His age, durability and continued elite production certainly justify a higher return than Thuney received.
However, a second-round pick would be an excellent outcome rather than something Indianapolis should necessarily expect. A third-round selection feels like a more realistic compromise. It would represent a meaningful premium over the Thuney trade while acknowledging the risk of acquiring an expensive veteran with no contractual control beyond the season.
There is also the compensatory pick argument to consider. If Nelson leaves Indianapolis in free agency, the Colts could potentially receive a compensatory selection in 2028. However, that would depend on the contract he signs elsewhere and the team’s own free-agent activity. There is no guarantee Indianapolis would receive a third-round pick, making a guaranteed selection in 2027 more appealing.
Of the three players examined in this series, Nelson might be the one I would be most reluctant to trade. He remains an elite offensive lineman, has shown little indication of slowing down and could be an important part of the franchise’s next competitive window, even if Indianapolis decides to make significant changes elsewhere on the roster.
That is ultimately what makes his situation so interesting. A third-round pick might be a fair reflection of his current trade market, but it would be difficult to argue that the Colts could replace what Nelson provides with that selection.
If Indianapolis believes it can return to contention relatively quickly, keeping Nelson and extending him may prove considerably more valuable than whatever draft compensation another team is willing to offer.
