Coming off their biggest win in several years, a feel-good, 24-20 banger in Happy Valley, the Wisconsin Badgers are likely feeling very good about themselves this week. Which is part of why the Michigan State Spartans contest has trap game written all over it in flashing neon lights.
If the Badgers have actually turned some kind of corner, they should handle the Spartans, a banged-up and moderately spiraling 2-2 unit. But something about this one gives me pause. Maybe it’s the fact that, several times, Pat Fitzgerald has gotten the best of more talented Badger teams while at Northwestern, or it could simply be that Wisconsin hasn’t won enough recently to know how to handle it.
So, let’s get to my Best Case, Worst Case, and Most Likely Scenarios for Saturday’s battle in Madison.
Best Case
While I’m reluctant to call for a Badger blowout, there is definitely a chance that the undermanned Spartans stay on the bus, and Wisconsin is able to pretty much do what they want in this game. Here, Joseph plays with newfound confidence and limits his mistakes, while the ground game finally gets truly untracked on the way to looking, at least for a week, like a vintage Badger backfield.
And Mike Tressel’s defense smells blood in the water with a Spartans offense down their most dynamic performer, running back Cam Edwards, on the way to stifling that already fairly marginal unit.
It’s definitely no curb-stomping, but the Badgers are in control all game on the way to a comfortable victory that will likely end up with them ranked on Sunday.
Score: Wisconsin 31-10.
Worst Case
Pat Fitzgerald haunted many a Badger’s sleep during his lengthy stint at Northwestern, beating Wisconsin five times. And while none of them victimized any current Wisconsin players or coaches, it’s emblematic of Fitz’s mindset when he matches up with Bucky.
In an ugly, worst-case universe, Michigan State comes into Camp Randall loose and ready to do damage as a big underdog, and simply plays/hits harder all day, keeping the overconfident Badgers on their heels from the opening kick to the final gun.
A gutsy 4th quarter touchdown from a big road underdog puts the Spartans ahead late (sound familiar?), and all of the good vibes from Happy Valley cruelly evaporate in a crushing Badger loss, starting the Fickell whispers up anew.
Score: Michigan State 20-16.
Most Likely
Look, I’m not trying to rain on anyone’s parade here. The vibes from the Penn State win were tasty. But the reality is, the Badgers are still a flawed team, and flawed teams end up playing a lot of close games, even if a given opponent seems overmatched.
In this scenario, Wisconsin fights hard, has some very encouraging moments, makes a few head-scratching mistakes, and comes out on top by a score, getting the job done against a team they’re favored over but not covering.
Sorry, I just don’t buy a certified Badger romp here. If it were Rutgers, maybe, but Fitzgerald will have his team ready to fight. Get ready for some real survive-and-advance stuff for Bucky on Saturday.
Score: Wisconsin 20-13.
