The Green Bay Packers might actually end up netting an extra draft pick in 2026 thanks to former Packers linebacker Eric Wilson, because he’s started the last nine games for the Minnesota Vikings, jumping ahead of projected starter Ivan Pace in snaps played. Too often, we think of compensatory draft picks as just cash coming in and out, and that deciding who gets the extra 32 picks in every draft (basically an additional round sprinkled in from Round 3 to Round 7), but that’s not exactly how it works.
Below is how OverTheCap explains the NFL’s formula for rewarding teams that lose contributors in free agency:
Contracts are ranked via a Final Numerical Value based on the sum of points awarded as follows:
An inverse ranking of the contract’s Average Per Year (APY)
One point each for each percentage point of snaps played on offense or defense, with a minimum requirement of 25%. (Kickers and punters earn points based upon statistical performance.)
20 or 5 points based upon being honored by the AP All Pro or PFWA On Field Awards lists.
The round for each contract is assigned on a percentile basis, as follows:
3rd Round: top 5%
4th Round: below top 5% to top 10%
5th Round: below top 10% to top 15%
6th Round: below top 15% to top 25%
7th Round: below top 25% to top 35% (previously 50% in the 2011 CBA)
The main factor I want to talk about here is snaps played on offense or defense. That is a massive variable, especially in this era, when the free-agent pool is typically weaker compared to pre-pandemic seasons, making projecting compensatory draft picks more challenging. Before the pandemic, and the salary cap reduction that came with it, clubs didn’t widely manipulate the salary cap with void years and conversions of salaries into new signing bonuses, which meant that more high- to mid-level starters hit the open market due to momentary cap pinches for individual franchises. Because more high- to mid-level starters hit the market, the top free agents were obviously playing more frequently, and the compensatory draft pick order was more predictable once the window to sign “compensatory free agents” closed.
This summer, the Packers weren’t expected to get a compensatory pick for Wilson. 32 other players were bigger financial losses this offseason, without being offset in free agency by their original clubs, so Wilson’s contract alone didn’t allow Green Bay to stake a claim for a compensatory pick. What pushed Wilson’s name up the compensatory draft pick formula was the fact that he’s actually seeing the field in Minnesota, as he’s now played 482 defensive snaps over nine games (53.6 snaps per game).
There have been other big changes to the comp pick order, based on how playing time has worked this season. Going into the year, the Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints weren’t expected to receive any draft picks for cornerbacks Carlton Davis and Paulson Adebo, respectively, but because of playing time adjustments being a factor for previously offsetting free agent additions, both teams would now net a fourth-round pick each if the season ended today. On the flip side, the Miami Dolphins (Jevon Holland), Minnesota Vikings (Daniel Jones) and New York Jets (Haason Reddick) all expected to earn fourth-round picks for outgoing free agents in July, but would receive nothing for those players leaving if the season ended today, because players they signed to lesser free-agent deals now offset those losses due to playing time.
In total, 11 of the original 32 projected compensatory picks from mid-July have now vanished entirely and been replaced due to the playing time adjustments in the compensatory draft pick formula, which is how Wilson is on pace to net the Packers an extra seventh-round pick in the 2026 draft. Two others, Pittsburgh’s sixth-round pick for Russell Wilson and Indianapolis’s sixth-round pick for Joe Flacco, have even been adjusted a round because of the playing time adjustment. In Wilson’s case, he was expected to net a fifth-round pick for the Steelers, but has been adjusted down a round. In Flacco’s case, he was expected to net a seventh-round pick for the Colts, but has been adjusted up a round.
If you want to take a look at the full list of compensatory picks, as it stands going into Week 11, you can check that out on OverTheCap. The pick the Packers would get right now for Wilson is set to be the third-to-last pick in the entire 2026 draft.
The way the math works for the Packers currently is that the losses of T.J. Slaton and cornerback Eric Stokes, which would have earned the team a sixth- and seventh-round pick in 2026 had the team not signed any free agents in 2025, are offset by the gains of guard Aaron Banks (who is set to earn the San Francisco 49ers a fourth-round pick) and cornerback Nate Hobbs this offseason. Wilson will earn Green Bay that extra pick because the only other “compensatory free agent” the team signed this spring was receiver Mecole Hardman, who didn’t make the roster and therefore cannot play enough to offset Wilson.
There’s also a very slim chance down the line that the Packers could add a second compensatory pick due to the loss of center Josh Myers, who signed with the New York Jets in free agency. Myers has started all nine games for the Jets this year, but only signed a deal averaging $2 million per season, so he’s currently on the wrong side of the cutoff. If he were to eventually qualify as one of the league’s top 32 non-offset losses, he would earn Green Bay a third seventh-round pick in 2026.
