The Boilers suffered just their second loss of the season with a 67-69 loss to the UCLA Bruins on the second game of their west coast trip this season following defeating USC. Purdue struggled against a very average UCLA team on both ends of the court, a trend that has followed them for the past several games where the Boilers look great in stretches and then suddenly have the bottom fall out. The Boilers fall to 17-2 and will return back to Mackey Arena to face an Illini team who will be without star guard Kylan Boswell due to injury.
Let’s check this game out ‘by the numbers:’
12
The Boilers seemed fully in control of this game with 7 minutes remaining in the first half. The trio of Smith, Loyer, and TKR were on the bench and the backups had built a lead up over the course of several minutes that one would assume would lead to a big half time lead and an opportunity for CMP to rest his main contributors even more in the second half. As Lee Corse would say…’not so fast my friend.‘
UCLA would go on to outscore Purdue 17-5 over the final 7:09 of the first half to take the score to 32-32 into half after the Bruins were down 12 points. It got so dicey for Purdue in that stretch that the only two point field goal Purdue hit in that span was a wildly thrown up, late shot clock shot by Fletcher Loyer. In fact, Purdue would end up allowing a 35-19 run by the Bruins that spanned the first and second halves over the course of nearly 16 minutes. Purdue is too talented and too experienced to only score 19 points in that length of time.
That would, however, not be the only lead Purdue would give up in this game.
8
Even with the struggles through the middle parts of this game, Purdue had seemingly finally gained a foothold and taken a 6 point lead with just 1:56 left following a Braden Smith three pointer and a TKR bucket to make the score 67-61. The Boilers would not score again and UCLA would go on to score 8 unanswered points to take the two point victory. It wasn’t just that Purdue lost a tightly contested and physical game, it was the manner in which it happened.
In the final possessions, Braden Smith had two turnovers and the defense left a 40% three point shooter wide open off a very basic on ball screen above the free throw line. That Bilodeau three pointer gave the versatile big man 14 points on the night and the signature win that UCLA needed to even be in consideration for the NCAA tourney. Prior to that run, UCLA held just a 5.4% win chance according to Kenpom.
These runs, something Purdue seemingly had gotten fixed after the embarrassing Iowa State loss, have started rearing their ugly heads again and casting doubt into the effectiveness and toughness of this Purdue team.
4
Braden Smith just didn’t look right during the UCLA game as he was battling through a knee injury he sustained against USC. The senior guard said his knee didn’t feel right in interviews following that game but there was little question if he would play against UCLA, even being placed as questionable in the B1G injury report. This was seemingly a matchup that Smith could rack up a good number of assists against a UCLA team that was outmatched at almost every position and doesn’t have the interior presence to contend with Cluff, TKR, and Jacobsen. Instead, it is a game I’m sure Smith wants to wash from his memory.
Smith was only able to accumulate 4 assists which tied for a season low with the Alabama game (he did score 29 points as he was the primary option in that game). The West coast and warm weather didn’t do Smith any favors as he only netted 9 total assists but had ten total turnovers. That’s not going to cut it for a player who is favored to win the B1G’s player of the year and is a short list NPOY candidate (although it seems Cam Boozer is running away with that award).
Smith now sits at 931 assists for his career and has fallen way behind on his quest for the all time NCAA record.
8.5 & 5.3
As TKR goes, so go the Boilermakers. That much was apparent in the first two games that TKR missed due to a hip injury and how much better Purdue looked with him back in the lineup. He looked like a first team All-American until that dreadful game against Iowa State where he scored just four points with the Boilers looked just all around bad. It was just clear that when TKR is at his best, Purdue becomes a team that is just so incredibly difficult to beat.
The last four games have looked more like that Iowa State game than any others and Purdue has seemingly suffered alongside him. In the last four games, TKR is averaging just 8.5 points and 5.3 rebounds per game and Purdue has looked as bad as they have in the last several seasons. As a comparison, in the six games between the Iowa State and Penn State games, TKR had been averaging 13.7 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 2.5 steals while shooting 56.1% from the field.
- I did want to take the opportunity to dispel the rumors that had been circulating that TKR’s struggles may have been due to a family illness. A family member on a known social media account refuted those claims pretty clearly.
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CJ Cox didn’t score a career or season high against UCLA (23 points against Nebraska in 2025), but his 16 points helped keep Purdue in this game when it seemed like there wasn’t a consistent scoring threat for the Boilers. It was his 11 in the second half that were of note when nobody else on the roster scored more than seven in that same half that were troubling. Cox is typically the fifth scoring option for Purdue amongst the starters and having a guy who can have nights like that when others are struggling is a benefit. The sophomore guard is showing he is more than just a guy who is a lockdown perimeter defender, although it didn’t show against UCLA as Dent went for 23 points and 13 assists.
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With their offensive struggles of the last several games where Purdue has scored well below their average and were not nearly as efficient as they had been all season, Purdue dropped to 2nd in the country in adjusted offensive performance on Kenpom. This metric, which takes into account a number of different factors, is likely the best analytical tool to determine how good a team is. Purdue had been the best during the history of Kenpom, even higher than last year’s Duke team for a long stretch early this season, but has come crashing down as of late with back to back games where Purdue didn’t crack 70 points and looked out of sorts.
Purdue’s current adjusted offensive efficiency score is still at an impressive 129.00 but the team that now ranks above them is none other than the team that is visiting Mackey on Saturday: the Illini (129.4). In fact, the Illini may be as close to a mirror image of Purdue when it comes to the analytics as they rank 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency with Purdue ranking 19th.
156.2
Oscar Cluff has been about as perfect a fit for any team in the country when it came to adding players from the portal. The SDSU big man has come in and not only fit schematically with what the Boilers do but also seemingly fit into what they do culturally as well. Cluff’s ability to rebound and score off those rebounds and around the rim at a high rate has led to some big games, but I’m not sure anyone expected him to rank first in the country.
Cluff currently holds an offensive rating of 156.2 and that is the best mark for all players in the country by a wide margin. How big of a margin you ask? Second place is currently held by Jake Davis of Illinois at 150.9 and third place is De’Undrae Perteete of UC-Riverside at 148.8. It may be in the best interest of Purdue when they start to stagnate and grind to a halt offensively to get the ball into Cluff in the low post and let the big Aussie go to work.
Another major analytics source for college basketball is Evan Miyakawa. He also places Cluff in elite company this season. Braden Smith obviously high on this as well but it shows Cluff is truly having an All American type season.
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As disappointing as the loss to UCLA was, and how important it may end up being in the race for a regular season B1G title, there are still 12 games left in that race. The Boilers stand at 7-1 and get still get the opportunity to play the teams they are truly battling with for that title in the coming weeks. Purdue will play Illinois (7-1), Michigan (7-1), Michigan State (7-1), and Nebraska (8-0) just once and all but Nebraska have to visit Mackey Arena. Purdue will double up against Iowa, Indiana, and Wisconsin this season with games mostly against the lower half of the conference.
I’m not saying 19-1 is going to happen but there is no reason Purdue can’t win a B1G title still and get a number 1 seed if they get through this stretch of poor play and return to form.
