Purdue Basketball: UCLA Preview – Stats, Analytics, Analysis

2025-2026 Season

Overall Record: 12-6

Big 10 Record: 4-3

Previous 3 Games

1/17: L – 74 – 86 vs Ohio State @ Away

1/14: W – 71 – 60 vs Penn State @ Away

1/10: W – 67 – 55 vs Maryland @ Home

UCLA Personnel

Starters

Bench

Note

Skyy Clark pulled his hamstring against Iowa and has missed the last four games. He was “questionable” for their game against Ohio State on Saturday, but it sounded like his return was imminent. I can’t find a source that says he’s not playing today, so I stuck him back in the starting lineup.

Key Analytics

(Per KenPom.com – National Rank in ())

KenPom Ranking – 42

Offense

Adjusted Efficiency: 120.5 (50)

Adjusted Tempo: 65.4 (300)

Average Possession Length: 17.5 (186)

Effective Field Goal%: 53.9 (85)

Offensive Rebound%: 32 (154)

Three Point%: 36.8 (38)

Two Point %: 53.1 (127)

Defense

Adjusted Efficiency: 102.9 (50)

Adjusted Tempo: 65.4 (65)

Average Possession Length: 18.5 (352)

Effective Field Goal%: 49.1 (95)

Offensive Rebound%: 32.9 (265)

Three Point%: 29.8 (31)

Two Point %: 52.5 (217)

Purdue Advantages

Adjusted Efficiency

Purdue Offense: 129.5 (1)

UCLA Defense: 102.9 (50)

Notes

Efficiency, thy name is Purdue basketball. The Boilermakers still maintain a stranglehold on the best offensive efficiency, but did take a slight step back after the USC game, mainly because they left their shooting shoes in West Lafayette.

On top of the shooting woes, Braden was uncharacteristically loose with the ball last time out, dare I say looking less like a Point God and more like a point guard. I anticipate Purdue’s favorite son to return to his deified status in this one.

Mick Cronin’s teams are tough and play solid defense. Last season, they ranked 14th in defensive efficiency. They’ve taken a step back in 2026 in terms of efficiency, but they’re still going to make the Boilermakers earn it tonight.

Two Point FG%

Purdue Offense: 58.9 (25)

UCLA Defense: 52.5 (217)

Notes

This is a weird one because UCLA does not lack size on the interior. In fact, when they play Eric Dailey and Tyler Bilodeau at the 3 and the 4, they’ll have a size advantage over the Boilermaker front court. If the Boilermakers try to put the ball through the basket instead of seeing who could make the rim vibrate the hardest, the mid-range game should be available with UCLA’s post defenders tending to stay closer to the basket.

Offensive Rebounding %

Purdue Offense: 37 (31)

UCLA Defense: 32.9 (265)

Notes

Again, I don’t get it. It seems like UCLA should be a solid rebounding team. They’ve got size, but Tyler Bilodeau reminds me a little of TKR last season. He’s going to score, but rebounding occasionally eludes him. USC dominated the Boilermakers on the boards last time out, 38 – 25. Hopefully that was jet lag-related or possibly caused by the Purdue players having to adjust to the…verse weather conditions (is that the opposite of adverse?). I’m willing to bet that was a one-off performance from Matt Painter’s crew because I’m going to bet Coach Paint has had a little something to say about rebounding over the last couple of days.

UCLA Advantages

Two Point %

UCLA Offense: 53.1 (127)

Purdue Defense: 51 (155)

Notes

USC shot 61% from two; luckily for the Boilermakers, they only shot 15% from three. The good news is that UCLA isn’t particularly good at scoring inside the arc, but Purdue is slightly worse at defending two-point attempts. Purdue needs to at least hold UCLA to their average in this one.

If they shoot 61% like their Southern California brethren, this game will be a nail-biter.

Three Point %

UCLA Offense: 36.8 (38)

Purdue Defense: 30.6 (52)

Notes

While the UCLA won’t be confused for a Zach Edey-led Purdue team from inside the arc, they do shoot it at a respectable clip. Remember how Skyy Clark has been out of action? That’s been tough for the Bruins to overcome because he’s been red hot from 3 all season, hitting 49% of his deep offerings. He leads the Bruins in 3-pointers attempted (70), even after missing four games. He’s one of the UCLA players with the green light to launch it whenever an opportunity arises.

Forward Tyler Bilodeau is the other Bruins player with the bright green light from behind the arc. This could be an issue, because Purdue’s big men occasionally get lost against stretch big men because they’re needed for defense and rebounding. This is a job for TKR. He needs to neutralize Bilodeau from the outside. UCLA needs Bilodeau to score, and he’s at his best when he’s bombing away from behind the arc in pick-and-pops.

Strength vs Strength

Turnover %

Purdue Offense: 14.2 (23)

UCLA Defense: 20.2 (37)

Notes

There’s that UCLA defense again. USC had Purdue shook at times last game. Outside of the Iowa State game, that’s been a rare occurrence over the last few seasons. Braden, in particular, seemed bothered by the Trojan pressure. My theory is that he rarely plays against a point guard his own size with the quickness to keep up, and USC had just that type of guard. In the end, Purdue still only committed 8 turnovers, but Braden’s 6 stood out.

UCLA thrives on turnovers. They have solid length in the front court that clogs up passing lanes, and both Donovan Dent and Skyy Clark are adept at pilfering the rock. Dent is going to be keyed up to make a statement tonight against the best point guard in the nation.

I expect Braden to shrug off his weird performance last game and treat the basketball with his usual level of care tonight. That puts Purdue in a good position because UCLA counts on transition baskets after turnovers to help keep its occasionally balky offense on track.

Brief Thoughts

Did you enjoy the USC game? I didn’t. I hated every second of it, and that’s exactly how the Trojans wanted me to feel. UCLA is going to be more of the same. Mick is going to be frothing at the mouth from the moment the ball is tipped, and his team tends to play with similar spirit. I thought the Trojans punked Purdue last game in terms of toughness. When you bang on the Boilermakers well-oiled efficiency machine, occasionally you can knock something loose and slow it down, at least momentarily. The three teams that have really dirtied up the game (Memphis, Wisconsin (2nd half), USC) have found some success in getting into Purdue’s head and throwing them off kilter a little.

Trey, in particular, hasn’t seemed to enjoy being touched by the opponent this season. Whenever someone brushes against him, he looks genuinely upset. He’s going to get knocked around on the inside, and Bildodeau is going to test him from the perimeter. I had Bilodeau vs TKR as one of the in-season matchups I was most interested in watching before the season started. Now, considering the state of Trey at the moment, it’s one that I’m most concerned about. Here’s hoping some time in sunny Southern California has reinvigorated Trey; I’m going to chalk up the last performance to seasonal affective disorder and never talk about it again.

Donovan Dent vs Braden was another matchup I had circled this offseason, but while Purdue left their shooting shoes in West Lafayette last game, Donovan left his in New Mexico, and no one can find them. Last season, he shot 40% from 3 on 65 attempts. He’s 4-26 so far this season and looks as interested in shooting as I am in eating discounted gas station sushi. Even without his outside shot, Dent is still one of the better passing guards in the nation. Braden wants to play a bigger role in the defense this season, and Dent will provide him with that opportunity.

Finally, I’ve got Skyy Clark as the wildcard in this one. If his hamstring is right, and he jars a couple of 3’s early, this could be another back-and-forth affair. I don’t think UCLA can win this without hitting a couple from deep. If he plays, I want to see Loyer and/or Cox running him off screens at every opportunity. Hamstrings are a fickle muscle; sometimes they feel ok until game fatigue starts setting in. I expect Purdue to run him on defense early in hopes that his legs aren’t under him late. His worst nightmare is getting stuck on Braden because Smith has almost pulled a hamstring twice this season from jumping off the couch after one of his assists (I’ve started stretching at halftime). I can only imagine it’s even worse if you have to try to guard him.

As long as Purdue doesn’t get lost in the UCLA sauce and let Cronin’s rabid dog routine and the Bruins’ size on the interior throw them off their game, this should be another Boilermaker victory. The thing is, we’re in conference play right now, teams aren’t playing their own game, they’re playing the game they hope bothers Purdue. I’d like to see a little less crying to refs and a little more punishing UCLA for their indiscretions on the scoreboard in this one.

Predictions

KenPom

Purdue: 77

UCLA: 71

Drew

Purdue: 72

USC: 67

Looking Into the Crystal Ball

I think this is going to be a rock fight. To butcher a phrase, Mick Cronin’s teams are like pigs; you should never wrestle one because you’ll both get dirty, but Mick’s team enjoys the filth. This won’t be an exhibition of beautiful basketball, but Purdue stays clean enough to pull away late.

The good news is the close score should keep you alert enough to make it through the West Coast tip. Good luck at work tomorrow.