The Portland Trail Blazers have finally regained a .500 record, standing at 22-22 after 44 games of their 2025-26 regular season. This is more or less in line with their preseason expectations, fighting for a spot in the Play-In Tournament for the 2026 NBA Playoffs. Winning 3 in a row and 10 of their last 13 has to make them feel good.
At the same time, Blazers fans have to confront a familiar reality: winning half your games is great for Portland in their current state, not so good for an actual NBA contender.
How good the Blazers really are remains a topic for debate. We’ll find out when the season is done, perhaps the playoffs too. But that’s not stopping people from wondering about the next steps forward, including a critical one in the Head Coaching seat. That’s the subject of today’s Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.
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Dave,
What do you think [incoming owner Tom] Dundon will do with the coach? Has [Tiago] Splitter earned a chance at coaching or is this season just a warm up for whoever comes next? If it’s not Splitter who do you think we’ll look for next?
J
I was thinking about this question over the weekend. The current Blazers coaches are making me consider a distinction I’ve never envisioned before. But here we are.
I’d say Tiago Splitter and his staff are doing a good job getting the best out of each individual on the team. Deni Avdija stands as the prime example, but you can also look at Shaedon Sharpe’s scoring, shining moments from Sidy Cissoko and Caleb Love, and more. As I was watching the last couple games, I noted how freely and without concern players were executing. Veterans and young players alike shoot without hesitation, make passes that other teams would think about twice, and press hard. It’s like every player feels they belong on the court and has something to contribute.
That’s not an easy climate to foster as a coach. Players looking over their shoulder and hesitating, players not living up to expectations, players shrinking from the moment…these are common in professional sports. Whoever each individual is, Splitter and his staff seem to maximize it, and that player’s confidence in themselves. I’d say they get full marks there.
But getting the best out of individual players is only half of the coaching battle. Great coaches also get the best out of the team collectively. Portland has faltered with end-of-game plays, often devolved into isolation ball, not always understood time and situation, and not been able to follow initial defensive stands with the next step or rotation.
Collectively the Blazers feel like a bunch of competent musicians, each with permission to sound their instrument loudly, who aren’t quite together on the sheet music (or at least improvisational style for you jazz fans).
Injuries have surely played a part. Splitter hasn’t had a consistent lineup since the first month of the season. Obviously taking over for suspended head coach Chauncey Billups in unforeseen circumstances also factors in. I’m not sure we can say that Splitter and his coaches have had a fair shot at showing their stuff. But have we seen enough to make a judgment about whether they should be in charge for the next 2-3 years? As you identify, that’s the question Tom Dundon will have to answer when he assumes control over the franchise this spring.
Part of that story has yet to be told. Outliers are possible. What if the Blazers make the second round of the playoffs? That would surely be a feather in the caps of the coaching staff, especially if their players stood up for them. It’s also possible that Dundon decides to make a change in management which then dominoes down to the coaching staff no matter how the team performs. New executives tend to like their own hires. Splitter doesn’t have a permanent title, let alone a long-term deal.
Plenty of things have yet to be decided. Some of those things are out of the coaches’ control. That’s a fancy way of saying that I don’t think I can answer this question definitively midseason. The best I can do is give you a couple scenarios.
If the grandiose dreams of Portland fans come true, the team gets healthy, and they really do excel, there will be some momentum towards keeping Splitter. Tom Dundon’s major professional sports experience comes as the owner of the NHL’s Carolina Hurricanes. Rod Brind’Amour, the Hurricanes’ coach, was a player and assistant with the franchise long before Dundon came on board. Dundon hired him from within the organization in his first ownership year and found great success doing so. That’s not Splitter’s status exactly, but it does show that Dundon wasn’t afraid to hire from within or to support a coach who wasn’t exactly a big name at the time. If Splitter looks good at the end of the season, there’s a chance Dundon gives him a look.
On the other hand, the Blazers haven’t had an established coach since Terry Stotts was fired five years ago. Their record in that stretch has been 139-233, a 37.4% winning rate. It’s going to take more than a .500 performance for the rest of this season to overlook that. If Dundon believes the Blazers have enough talent to compete, he may want someone with a track record in charge to test that theory. You start looking at a guy like Tom Thibodeau and ask what he could do with a mostly-young, defensively-minded roster. Former championship coach Michael Malone is sitting out there too. You get the idea. It’s possible that an owner who can’t spend extra money on the roster due to current salary cap conventions might decide to splurge on an unmissable head coach instead.
In the meantime, all the current coaching staff can do is control what they control. Come to work every day, try to establish professional standards, get the most out of their players, and win every game they can. The picture for them and the team will be clearer in May than it is right now. So far they’ve done alright, all things considered. That’s all you can ask.
What do you think? Will the Blazers stay the course at the end of the year or are they up for a change, maybe to a more well-known name? Share your thoughts in the comments. And as always, thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as we can!
