President Donald Trump’s lofty promises about more jobs for Americans seems to have fallen flat. Reportedly, manufacturing employment has declined every month since Trump declared “Liberation Day” in April, saying his widespread tariffs would begin to rebalance global trade in favor of American workers. U.S. factories employ 12.7 million people today, 72,000 fewer than when Trump made his Rose Garden announcement.
“2025 should have been a good year for manufacturing employment, and that didn’t happen. I think you really have to indict tariffs for that,” said economist Michael Hicks, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University in Muncie, Indiana.
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The small and midsize businesses have found Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs especially vexing, with fifty-seven percent of midsize manufacturers and 40 percent of small producers saying, in a November survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, that they had no certainty about their input costs.
During Donald Trump’s second term, his administration implemented a series of widespread tariffs on imported goods, particularly targeting China, the European Union, and other major trading partners.
The stated goal was to rebalance global trade in favor of American workers and stimulate domestic manufacturing by making imported goods more expensive and encouraging U.S. production. The White House often promoted these tariffs as a tool to create new jobs in manufacturing and related sectors.
U.S. manufacturing employment as of early 2026 stands at approximately 12.7 million workers, which is 72,000 fewer than at the time Trump announced the tariffs in his “Liberation Day” speech.
Reports indicate that manufacturing employment has declined in each month following the tariff rollout, suggesting that the hoped-for job gains have not materialized on a broad scale.
Economists like Michael Hicks, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University, argue that tariffs may have added costs for businesses, slowed production, and indirectly limited job growth.
Small and midsize businesses appear particularly affected. Surveys by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond show that 57% of midsize manufacturers and 40% of small producers reported uncertainty about input costs due to the tariffs.
The unpredictability of which goods would be taxed and the fluctuating rates created planning challenges for companies, which supposedly often translates into hiring freezes or delayed expansion.
While some industries, such as domestic steel production, have seen modest gains, these are largely offset by job losses or stagnation elsewhere, including in sectors that rely on imported components. Agricultural exports, for example, were hit by retaliatory tariffs from other countries, impacting rural employment.
Analysts note that overall employment gains attributed directly to tariffs are difficult to isolate, as multiple economic factors, including automation, global supply chain shifts, and pandemic recovery, also influence job numbers.
The tariff experience also underscores the broader lesson that economic policies rarely operate in isolation. Even well-intentioned measures aimed at boosting domestic industries can produce unintended consequences when global supply chains, trade partners’ responses, and market dynamics interact in complex ways.
Companies may adjust by shifting production, delaying investment, or restructuring operations, which can limit the immediate impact on employment. The case highlights the challenges governments face in balancing protectionist strategies with sustainable economic growth in an interconnected global market.
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