2025-2026 Season
Overall Record: 14-3
Big 10 Record: 3-3
Previous 3 Games
1/13: W – 88-71 vs Maryland @ Home
1/9: W – 70 – 69 (OT) vs Minnesota @ Away
1/2: L – 51 – 80 vs Michigan State @ Away
USC Personnel
Starters
| Position | # | Player | Class | Height | Weight | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point Guard | 4 | Chad Baker-Mazara | Sr. | 6’7″ | 175 | 30.5 | 19.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 |
| Shooting Guard | 13 | Kam Woods | Sr. | 6’2″ | 185 | 25 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| Small Forward | 6 | Jacob Coffie | So. | 6’10” | 230 | 28.6 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 1.8 |
| Power Forward | 2 | Ezra Ausar | Sr. | 6’9″ | 255 | 28.1 | 16.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 |
| Center | 45 | Gabe Dynes | Jr. | 7’5″ | 215 | 12.6 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
Bench
| Position | # | Player | Class | Height | Weight | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point Guard | 7 | Jordan Marsh | Jr. | 5’11” | 150 | 18.2 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Wing / Forward | 33 | Jaden Brownell | Sr. | 6’10” | 235 | 13.7 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| Wing | 8 | Jerry Easter | Sr. | 6’9″ | 255 | 19.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
Key Analytics
(Per KenPom.com – National Rank in ())
KenPom Ranking – 51
Offense
Adjusted Efficiency: 118.7 (56)
Adjusted Tempo: 70.4 (65)
Average Possession Length: 16.6 (97)
Effective Field Goal%: 53 (112)
Offensive Rebound%: 32.6 (135)
Three Point%: 34.4 (154)
Two Point %: 53.7 (109)
Defense
Adjusted Efficiency: 102.6 (59)
Adjusted Tempo: 70.4 (65)
Average Possession Length: 16.6 (97)
Effective Field Goal%: 48 (63)
Offensive Rebound%: 32.1 (228)
Three Point%: 29.6 (28)
Two Point %: 50.7 (153)
Purdue Advantages
Adjusted Efficiency
Purdue Offense: 130.1 (1)
USC Defense: 102.6 (59)
Notes
USC’s defense has been respectable this season. Purdue’s offense grinds teams into a fine powder with stunning efficiency. The Trojans are dealing with injuries, and the Boilermakers are healthy.
Eric Musselman’s team is the next victim of the Boilermaker efficiency machine.
Two Point FG%
Purdue Offense: 59.5 (21)
USC Defense: 50.7 (153)
Notes
This is weird because the Trojans have plenty of size across their roster. You would think defending the rim would be a strength, but it is not. TKR could use a get-right game, and USC is a good team to get right against. Oscar Cluff may use 7’5”, 215-pound Gabe Dynes as a human didgeridoo.
Offensive Rebounding %
Purdue Offense: 38.4 (13)
USC Defense: 32.1 (228)
Notes
Again, USC is tall, but they’re not physical and get absolutely pounded on the defensive glass. Purdue has two of the best offensive rebounders in college basketball. Even if Purdue’s shooting is thrown off by the West Coast gravity, Cluff and TKR’s dunks and layups should be uneffected.
USC Advantages
Two Point %
USC Offense: 53.7 (109)
Purdue Defense: 50.3 (136)
Notes
This is the only place where USC has any sort of statistical advantage. Ezra Ausar is a tough cover on the interior. I expect Painter to send the double and make USC go away from its strength.
Forcing the 154th-best three-point-shooting team in the country to take three pointers isn’t a bad idea (as long as they’re not banking in shots of the shot clock like Iowa).
Strength vs Strength
Three Point %
Purdue Offense: 39.5 (12)
USC Defense: 29.6 (28)
Notes
The Trojans have a bunch of long-armed dudes that close on shooters. I still can’t figure out why they can’t defend the rim, but they’ve managed to lock down the perimeter. It will be interesting to see if Braden can free up Purdue’s shooters, or if the Boilermakers have to win this game two points at a time on the perimeter.
Brief Thoughts
This is another game that would be different if USC weren’t decimated by injuries. I’ve got Chad Baker-Mazara listed in the starting lineup, but he’s questionable with a neck injury that limited him to under 10 minutes of court time in their win over Maryland. The Trojans didn’t need him against the woeful Terps, but in general, beating Purdue requires the best version of your team.
This isn’t the best version of USC, even if Baker-Mazara’s neck is feeling better tomorrow. Maryland transfer Rodney Rice was pacing the team in scoring at 20 points a game before going down to a season ending shoulder injury in the 6th game of the season.
Five-star freshman Alijah Arenas was supposed to be the talk of college basketball this season, but the 6’6” freshman has yet to make his debut after having surgery to repair his meniscus over the summer. USC was hoping to have him back this week, but recent reports indicate they’ll have to wait a little longer. To be fair, making your college basketball debut against a team like Purdue might be ill-advised.
Purdue would be favored over the best version of this USC. They’re going to be highly favored against this piecemeal offering. If Purdue plays its game, they win, and Purdue eventually finds a way to play its game when faced with teams like USC.
Predictions
KenPom
Purdue: 83
USC: 76
Drew
Purdue: 77
USC: 67
Looking Into the Crystal Ball
The only thing keeping me from picking Purdue in a blowout is the plane trip. Purdue’s a veteran team that shouldn’t be bothered by the travel, but “shouldn’t” and “won’t” aren’t the same thing. I could see a scenario where Purdue’s struggles to shoot, and this game stays relatively close throughout.
If Purdue shoots anywhere close to its average from outside, this game gets out of hand. I don’t think this is the game for the Boilermakers outside shooting, and the Trojans keep this within a couple of possessions until the inevitability of the efficiency machine overwhelms them late.
