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What to KnowA whopper of a winter storm is set to impact a large chunk of the U.S. – from Texas to the East Coast – this weekend. Unfortunately, it’s unclear this far in advance just how much we might get. A northern track means that the low-pressure system will be closer to the tri-state and snow is more likely. Conversely, a more southern track means the low will be displaced from the tri-state and the bulk of the snow would be well to our south.We are confident that this storm will track south of New York City, so within the tri-state, Central and South Jersey are most likely to see heavy snow. The Hudson Valley is least likely to see heavy accumulation. A whopper of a winter storm is set to impact a large chunk of the U.S. – from Texas to the East Coast – this weekend.  The question on the minds of everyone in the tri-state: “Will we be snowed in by the end of next weekend?” Unfortunately, the answer to that question isn’t crystal clear this far in advance. We are certain that a major winter storm will be taking shape. Whether or not we get snow in the tri-state, let alone how much, will depend on that track of the storm. That is the tricky part of this weekend’s forecast. A northern track means that the low pressure system will be closer to the tri-state and snow is more likely. Conversely, a more southern track means the low will be displaced from the tri-state and the bulk of the snow would be well to our south. The other near-certainty in this weekend’s forecast is that temperatures in the tri-state will be bitterly cold.  Highs will only be in the teens. That frigid air will be very dry, which means that there may not be enough moisture to produce a ton of snow.  Often, when an extremely cold air mass like this anchors over the Northeast, winter storm tracks track far south, where moisture is much more abundant, and the deepest snow winds up south of New York City. The European long-range forecast model depicts more of a northerly track to the storm. Its American counterpart is hedging the track south. And, as the tracks suggest, the European model is much more bullish on snow, with an estimated 12+ inches for much of the tri-state. The American model remains more modest, at 3-5 inches. We are confident that this storm will track south of New York City, so within the tri-state, Central and South Jersey are most likely to pick up a big snow. The Hudson Valley is least likely.  For the East Coast, the area most likely to be hardest-hit will be Washington and the Delmarva Peninsula southward into the Carolinas. We’re still several days away from this storm impacting us, so expect the forecast to change as we continue to get more data. Be sure to check back with StormTeam 4, and, you can always get the latest forecast on NBC4 New York.

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