It’s tough to say how to take the 87-84 win by Carolina last night. On one hand you have the fact that Carolina turned back a team that has given the Tar Heels fits since Steve Forbes started coaching at Wake Forest. They were desperate for a marquee win. The game makes Carolina 2-1 in the ACC as they pack up their gear and head out to California for the next week. On the other side, though, you have the fact that Carolina nearly lost a 15-point lead in the second half and to some extent were lucky that they didn’t.
Still, after a team shot well for the second game in a row to be able to head out of town with a win is what matters the most. So, here are three takeaways from UNC’s win over the Demon Deacons.
Once is a coincidence, twice is worrying
A week after SMU shot a blistering 60% overall and 51.9% from three, the Tar Heels supposedly were going to work on their defense during their time off. The numbers improved against Wake Forest—to 48.4% overall and 40% from three. But time and again Wake Forest hit some ridiculous shots, and in the second half the Deacons nailed 46.2% from behind the arc. They had every right to expect that their last second heave as the buzzer sounded would go on based on some of the shots they had hit earlier.
Clearly teams have looked at Carolina on film and has figured out how to get the shots they want from three, and to some extent Carolina is still fine with teams taking them because of their size advantage. The numbers usually work in their favor to trade twos for threes. It helps when you shoot 59.4% overall in the first half, you can keep up with a team that goes 8-22 from three.
Still, it’s clear Wake Forest had a plan. Last week 45% of SMU’s shots were from three, and yesterday 55% of Wake’s were from there. For the most part it appears teams are just going to copy the SMU strategy and hope they can hit enough force Carolina to take bad shots. It may be time for Davis to adjust the defending to make those shots at least a little harder to take. At the very least forcing teams to shoot closer to the basket increases the likelihood that misses will end up in the hands of their talented bigs.
Caleb Wilson’s all-world first half didn’t carry
A worrying sign for Carolina fans should have been near the end of the first half when Caleb Wilson seemed completely spent. When the teams went to the locker room, Wilson had played 17 of the 20 minutes, had several highlight reel slams, and had 17 points with nine rebounds after going 7-7 from the floor.
The problem is in the second frame he only had five points, going 1-2 from the field and 3-4 from the free throw line. He only had three rebounds, and was a -10 when he was on the floor while playing 18 of the 20 minutes.
That the fuel tank was on empty late wasn’t more apparent then when he missed a cutting Kyan Evans down the lane as Wake Forest doubled him near the basket and he traveled, keeping Wake in the game instead of expanding the lead. Fortunately he would have a chance to instantly atone, again reading the double team but this team feeding the ball to Henri Veesaar for a dunk that forced Wake into the fouling strategy that almost got them the tying score.
There’s really no other way to put it that it’s concerning he was low in the tank after a week off. It’s possible he was dealing with some sort of respiratory ailment—tis the season—but the game likely isn’t close if they get 50% of the same version of Wilson in the second half. They barely got 25%.
It’s something to keep an eye on as the Tar Heels now commence with the regular grind of the conference season and start it by playing two straight in California.
Losing late leads
The Tar Heels had a 15-point cushion before Wake called a time out and methodically whittled the lead down. They got as close as one point but never tied it, and there’s something to that.
It’s the second time in a month that Carolina has lost a significant lead in the second half to a team—the first being how they nearly lost the Ohio State game before the well-executed end of game sequence by the team. Much like that last gaffe, though, Carolina played as big a role in the come back as much as Wake helped their cause. Carolina had 21 free throw attempts in the second half. They only made 14. They went 4-12 from behind the arc. After combining for twelve field goal attempts and 28 points in the first half, Veesaar and Wilson only attempted seven shots for a total of 19 points.
As mentioned earlier, it happening once could be a coincidence but it happening again should be setting off alarm bells. At some point it’s going to bite them, as the ACC is much better this year than it has been in previous seasons, so the margin of error is thinner. Hopefully the film study today before the California trip will expose the mistakes and they can be cleaned up.
