Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via BetMGM)
Minnesota/New Mexico Under (49.5): 3:30 PM CT on ESPN
Opt-outs and transfer portal losses for this one are really going to hurt the Gopher offense, and I think scoring in general. Minnesota will likely be on their third-string running back today, although they’ve been a poor running team all season from an efficiency standpoint anyway. That puts everything on the passing game, which has also left a lot to be desired this season, and will be without top target Le’Meke Brockington today.
And they’re going against a much-improved New Mexico defense that I don’t see struggling like they’re expected to here. The Lobos really only look bad on defense when they have to play a true road game against an elite offense, and this spot is far from that. UNM can also really run the ball effectively when they want to, and they’d be smart not to test a secondary that is arguably the biggest strength for the Gophers. So I see a lot of stalled drives and burning the clock today, making this adjusted number north of 7 touchdowns pretty valuable.
Florida International/UTSA Over (53.5): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
This shapes up to be a considerably different game than its predecessor on ESPN that Gopher fans might not end up loving. If you want to see explosive plays, don’t change the channel, as both of these teams might be in for a big night on the scoreboard. Opt-outs and the transfer portal are going to cause problems here too, especially for the FIU secondary which has been decimated.
The Panthers should get shredded by a veteran QB in Owen McCown, who is no stranger to throwing all game in shootouts. But that’s because the UTSA defense has been awful all season, ranked in the bottom-20 nationally in efficiency metrics. FIU will have stability at quarterback today, and their offense has not been victimized by personnel losses. This total has been creeping up as the week goes on, and I like being able to eliminate that steam and knock the number back down to here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Chicago Bulls First Quarter Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Prime Video
These teams are what they are, and that means wild first quarter scoring. The Sixers are 3rd in the league for opening quarter points, while Chicago is 7th for scoring at home in the first quarter. And they can’t stop anything either, with Philly 22nd and the Bulls 26th in first quarter points allowed. There’s much more offensive firepower on the court than defensive ability, and the Bulls are going to push tempo at the second-fastest pace in the league. These teams have already faced off, going for 72 points in the first quarter of a game that fell well short of the full total, so I’m expecting more of the same in this Prime Video showcase spot.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 32-35 (-1.84 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
