I trust you have been reading my series on the 17 (!) 2026 Cubs who are either free agents or who have various forms of contract options, either club or player or mutual. That series will continue through next week.
After that, during the first week of November I’ll begin my usual series on free agents who the Cubs might target. That’ll be right about when the World Series ends, and the free-agent period begins five days later.
And that could wind up being a very busy period, per this article by Andy McCullough in The Athletic:
The incoming free-agent class features scant stardom beyond [Tarik] Skubal. San Diego Padres starter Michael King and Boston Red Sox veteran Sonny Gray could also strike it big. Seattle Mariners outfielder Randy Arozarena headlines a group of hitters that includes Milwaukee Brewers postseason hero Jake Bauers, two-time All-Star second baseman Brandon Lowe and Chicago Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. At 28, Padres lefty Adrián Morejón tops the relief market. The incoming class from Nippon Professional Baseball features pitcher Hiromi Itoh, third baseman Teruaki Sato and pitcher Kaima Taira.
All might find a home before the lockout, or face a lengthy wait for the sport to resume operations. The prospect of a market compressed by a deadline is far from the union’s ideal — but the landscape beyond this winter is even harder to predict.
“I think there’s going to be more urgency,” one executive said. “And I think it could be a fun month of November, if we treat Dec. 1 like, ‘This is a deadline. So let’s get some s— done.”
The article hints that some free agents — and teams, too — might want to get some sort of deals and cost certainty before a new CBA that could put some limits on both. For example, in addition to the owners’ proposed salary cap, there’s another proposal on the table that could limit the maximum length of a contract:
In June, MLB proposed for the 2027 season a maximum contract of five years and $202 million for a free agent joining a new team. The player could sign with his current team for six years and $265 million. Compare that to what Skubal might command this winter: One executive floated a 10-year, $400 million deal as a hypothetical.
“Major League Baseball can’t stop that right now,” the executive said. “But after the lockout’s over and the settlement, it might not be possible for that guy to get that contract.”
Any deals signed before Dec. 1, under the current CBA, seem likely to be grandfathered if the payroll system has a major revamp done. That would also apply to current deals such as the 15-year, $765 million deal signed by Juan Soto with the Mets prior to the 2025 season, and any other long-term deals that go far beyond this year. Even if some sort of salary cap/floor system is agreed to — and who knows? — it will take a while to unwind all those large deals. There will have to be cap exceptions, to use an NBA term, for those sorts of contracts.
There was a feeding frenzy of sorts like this five years ago when the last CBA was up:
On Dec. 1, 2021, hours before the CBA expired, the Texas Rangers introduced their $500 middle-infield duo of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Teams were handing out nine-figure contracts across the sport: Max Scherzer received $130 million from the New York Mets. The Detroit Tigers flung $140 million at Javier Baez. Robbie Ray got $115 million from the Seattle Mariners and Kevin Gausman agreed to a $110 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.
You will likely remember that the Cubs signed Marcus Stroman to a three-year, $71 million deal at that time. The deal came with two opt-outs. Stroman was pretty good the first year, not so much in 2023, then he opted out and signed with the Yankees.
Could the Cubs be part of this sort of free-agent circus, if such a thing comes to pass? You’d like to think so, at the very least to retain Seiya Suzuki, who might be the best hitter available this winter.
One thing’s for sure. There is going to be a lockout. No one from MLB has specifically said that yet, but all signs point to the sport being shut down after the deal expires at 11:59 p.m. ET (10:59 p.m. CT) on Dec. 1. After that — well, as always, we await developments.
