Penn State Nittany Lions (3-3; 0-3 Big Ten) vs Michigan Wolverines (3-2*; 0-2 Big Ten)
3:30 p.m. ET, October 17 – CBS
Michigan Stadium (Capacity: 107,600 / Ann Arbor, MI)
| Penn State | Value (Nat’l Rank) | Value (Nat’l Rank) | Michigan | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 141.7 (90) | 94,6 (16) | Rushing Defense (ypg) |  |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 251.2 (52) | 146.8 (5) | Passing Defense (ypg) | |
| Pass Efficiency | 149.39 (50) | 118.96 (41) | Pass Efficiency Defense | Push |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 392.8 (72) | 241.4 (3) | Total Defense (ypg) | |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 30.5 (65) | 15.8 (20) | Scoring Defense (ppg) | |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 165.8 (105) | 135.0 (98) | Rushing Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 149.8 (6) | 180.8 (117) | Passing Offense (ypg) |  |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 108.14 (11) | 133.96 (89) | Pass Efficiency | |
| Total Defense (ypg) | 315.7 (36) | 315.8 (121) | Total Offense (ypg) | |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 18.5 (T – 32) | 23.0 (T – 101) | Scoring Offense (ppg) | |
| Punt Return Defense (ypr) | 26.0 (133) | 4.29 (123) | Punt Return Yds (ypr) | Push |
| Punt Return Yds (ypr) | 10.94 (51) | 3.43 (30) | Punt Return Defense (ypr) | Push |
| Net Punting Yds (ypp) | 37.58 (112) | 40.58 (51) | Net Punting Yds (ypp) | |
| Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) | 19.83 (71) | 33.67 (136) | Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | |
| Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | 16.56 (39) | 22.0 (46) | Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) | Push |
| Turnover Margin | +0.83 (T – 19) | -0.8 (T – 122) | Turnover Margin | |
| Passes Had Intercepted (total) | 3 (T – 45) | 4 (T – 59) | Passes Intercepted (total) | Push |
| Passes Intercepted (total) | 5 (T – 38) | 4 (T – 63) | Passes Had Intercepted (total) | |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 42.67 (19) | 66.4 (T – 105) | Penalty Yds/Game | |
| Sacks (spg) | 1.33 (T – 111) | 1.6 (T – 58) | Sacks Allowed (spg) | |
| Sacks Allowed (spg) | 1.33 (T – 38) | 2.4 (T – 42) | Sacks (spg) | Push |
| Tackles for Loss (tpg) | 4.5 (T – 101) | 3.8 (25) | Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | 3.33 (T – 17) | 6.8 (25) | Tackles for Loss (tpg) | Push |
| Redzone Offense (% season) | 84.6% (T – 78) | 91.7% (T – 110) | Redzone Defense (% season) | |
| Redzone Defense (% season) | 94.44% (T – 126) | 76.9% (T – 113) | Redzone Offense (% season) | Push |
| Redzone TD % (season) | 53.85% | 41.67% | Redzone TD % Defense (season) | |
| Redzone TD % Defense (season) | 61.11% | 61.54% | Redzone TD % (season) | Push |
| 3rd Down Conv. % (season) | 36.6% (97) | 32.4% (36) | 3rd Down Defense % (season) | |
| 3rd Down Defense % (season) | 26.7% (7) | 40.7% (75) | 3rd Down Conv. % (season) | |
| 4th Down Conv. % (season) | 72.7% (16) | 40.0% (T – 39) | 4th Down Defense % (season) | Push |
| 4th Down Defense % (season) | 77.8% (T – 128) | 66.7% (T – 27) | 4th Down Conv. % (season) | |
| 1st Downs (season) | 123 (T – 50) | 76 (T – 6) | 1st Downs Allowed (season) | |
| 1st Downs Allowed (season) | 106 (T – 64) | 85 (131) | 1st Downs (season) | |
| Time of Possession | 30 (66) | 28 (107) | Time of Possession | |
| Strength of Schedule | 56 | 61 | Strength of Schedule | Push |
| Difference | > 25 | in | National Rank | |
| Difference | > 50 | in | National Rank | |
| Difference | > 75 | in | National Rank | |
| Difference | > 100 | in | National Rank | |
Note:
All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is taken from ESPN.
The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts:
Michigan’s defense is very good – but their offense is very bad. Penn State’s defense and offense are both pretty mediocre – so which will give? A great defense versus an average offense, or an awful offense versus a decent defense?
Despite being a defensive-minded team, the Wolverines also play pretty sloppy, with turnovers and penalties galore. Of course, this means that they’ll play their cleanest game of the season against PSU, coming into their sixth game fresh off their bye week, right?
Some more about these numbers:
- Penn State has been in the red zone 26 times on offense, scoring 14 touchdowns and 8 field goals; Michigan has been in the red zone half that amount, just 13 times, with 8 touchdowns and 2 field goals scored
- On defense, the Nittany Lions have allowed 18 red zone trips (11 touchdowns and 6 field goals scored), while the Wolverines have allowed 12 red zone trips (with 5 touchdowns and 6 field goals scored)
- PSU has allowed just 20 3rd down conversions on 75 attempts, while in one less game UM has allowed more conversions (23) on fewer attempts (71)
- Penn State has converted just 30 of their 82 3rd down tries; Michigan has converted 24 of their 59 attempts
- On fourth downs, the Lions have allowed 7 of 9 conversions, compared to the Wolverines’ 2 of 5
- After a remarkable showing against an overmatched USC defense, PSU’s offensive fourth down conversions numbers skyrocketed up to 8 conversions on 11 attempts; UM has converted 4 of their 6 fourth down attempts
- On kickoffs, Penn State has returned 6 kickoffs and allowed 9 kickoff returns, while Michigan has returned 7 kickoffs and allowed 6 returns
- On punts, the Nittany Lions have allowed just 1 punt return while returning 16 punts themselves; the Wolverines have allowed 7 punt returns while also returning 7
- In one more game, PSU has only punted 2 more times than MI (26 punts with 4 touch backs, versus 24 punts with 2 touch backs)
What say you all?
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