I know we can all be a little superstitious at times. Like the world’s greatest boss, Michael Scott, I myself am not superstitious, but I am a little stitiuos. So, let’s just go ahead and say it out loud: at the midway point of this season, the Iowa Hawkeyes are in the playoff race.
The new AP poll has Iowa at #17, up three spots this week while the Coaches Poll has Iowa up two spots to #16 after Friday night’s 41-24 dismantling of Washington. Those polls are all well and good, but the only one that truly matters won’t come out for two more weeks and there is sure to be some movement between now and then.
As of Monday morning, the Hawkeyes are +390 to make the College Football Playoff over on FanDuel Sportsbook. Those are the 19th best odds in the nation. Notably, that’s up from +800 in the preseason, when 28 teams carried shorter odds to make the field (seven of them from the Big Ten). In implied-probability terms, six weeks of football moved Iowa from roughly an 11% shot to make the CFP to better than a 20% one.
When you take a glance at the remaining schedule, that almost feels low. No, Iowa hasn’t looked dominant in their games against P4 competition east of the Pacific Time Zone, but they are sitting at 5-1 overall with their lone loss to a team that started the year as preseason #1 nationally and is still the odds on favorite to win the national title at +370.
The Remaining Slate
What’s left: at Minnesota (October 24), Wisconsin at Kinnick (October 31), at Northwestern (November 7), Purdue at Kinnick (November 14), at Illinois (November 21) and Nebraska in Iowa City on Black Friday (November 27).
As of now, only Northwestern is ranked among those remaining games coming in at #25 this week. It’s possible Wisconsin or Nebraska could sneak in by the time they face Iowa, but both have gauntlets and are likely to have multiple losses before they come to Iowa City.
There are no lookahead lines posted as of yet, but ESPN’s FPI gives a decent sketch of how the market will see it. Iowa projects as a favorite against Minnesota, Purdue and Illinois, with Wisconsin and Northwestern sitting closer to coin-flip territory. By the computers, the toughest date is the last one as FPI rates Nebraska the best team remaining on the slate. A Black Friday game at Kinnick with a playoff bid potentially on the line would be the biggest game this series has seen in a long, long time.
As for how good the computers think Iowa actually is: FPI slots the Hawkeyes just outside the top 20. Advanced metrics see a good, but not elite team. The committee has never cared much about the computers anyway. It cares about your record and who you beat.
Iowa can control just one of those.
What an At-Large Bid Actually Needs
The 12-team playoff has handed out 14 at-large bids across its two seasons and the path is pretty clear. Six of those at-larges had one loss. Seven had two. Exactly one three-loss team has ever snuck in – 2025 Alabama at 10-3, and that third loss came in the SEC title game.
An 11-1 record fits comfortably inside every at-large profile the committee has picked so far.
Two losses, though? That’s where resumes get dissected. Miami and Ole Miss both missed at 10-2 in 2024, and last year Notre Dame was the first team out at 10-2 – the committee took 10-2 Miami over the Irish on head-to-head. Meanwhile Indiana cruised in at 11-1 in 2024 with a loss at Ohio State and ten wins by two touchdowns or more. Two years of selections say the committee settles 10-2 arguments by asking one question – who did you beat?
Which brings us to Iowa’s particular problem.
When we looked at the schedule entering the year, it was a foregone conclusion that Michigan and Ohio State would be ranked this year and all year. The trip to Washington was a tough ask and the Huskies were a team to potentially be ranked. Ditto Illinois, Wisconsin and Nebraska. Now, at the midway point, none of them are ranked, Illinois and Nebraska likely won’t be by the time they face Iowa and just Northwestern has stepped into that dark horse role.
That’s the double-edged of this schedule. On one hand, Iowa has a good shot to maneuver the rest of this year with just one loss. On the other, there is no real opportunity for a signature win the rest of the way and thus no margin for error. A two-loss Hawkeye team simply won’t stack up well against the rest of the contenders.
Who Iowa Is Racing
Iowa’s at-large competition lives in the 10-20 band of the poll and the remaining-schedule comparison is where the Hawkeyes’ position looks genuinely enviable. Count the currently ranked opponents each contender still has to play: #13 Missouri has four, including trips to #1 Georgia and #9 Ole Miss. #14 Tennessee, #16 Mississippi State and #19 USC have three each – USC’s trio includes #4 Ohio State and #5 Indiana back to back. #11 Utah, #15 Kentucky, #18 Oklahoma State and #20 Houston have two. #10 Texas Tech and #12 UCLA have one apiece and the Bruins just lost their QB for the season.
The SEC bubble is going to eat its own. Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky and Mississippi State are stacked 13th through 16th and several of them play each other, which means some of those teams will knock each other out by Thanksgiving. Iowa doesn’t have that problem. Nobody on Iowa’s schedule is competing with Iowa for an at-large spot except arguably Nebraska if they can somehow find a way to not be Nebraska for the next six weeks.
The one wild twist is the Big Ten may also eat itself enough to give Iowa another ranked opponent… in the Big Ten Championship. The Hawkeyes are currently tied for sixth in the conference, but as we just laid out they’re likely to climb. Indiana and Ohio State face each other, both square off with USC and the Buckeyes get #25 Northwestern at home. Wisconsin has UCLA, USC, Purdue and Iowa among the top-6 teams in conference. The Boilermakers get to go to Penn State, Iowa City and Indiana yet this season.
All of which to say, if the Hawkeyes run the table and finish 8-1 in the conference, they’ll almost certainly be top-3 in conference and there’s a very solid chance they’ll be in Indianapolis. The down side there is another top-5 beatdown dropping Iowa to two losses may be enough to drop them from contention.
What the Experts are Projecting
Projections from the national media are mixed in terms of their faith in Iowa actually running the table, though there’s no doubt they’d be in if they did.
The most common projection among the “experts” is Iowa in the Citrus Bowl. That’s where On3’s Brett McMurphy, CBS’ Brad Crawford and ESPN’s Mark Schlabach have the Hawkeyes. Schlabach’s colleague at ESPN, Kyle Bonagura, is among the ESPN homers who insists that the outcomes of games simply doesn’t matter. He somehow has Iowa in the Music City Bowl, which begs the question, “what exactly qualifies one to work at ESPN or have an AP vote?”
Partial credit to their other colleague Heather Dinich, who gives her playoff projections based solely on the schedule as of today with no forward projection. She’s got Iowa on the outside looking in, which is fair given the lack of a ranked win (thanks for nothing as always, Michigan). But notably she has UCLA in the playoff and it’s pretty clear that team is poised to fall apart, opening the door.
One other one to call out is Andy Staples at On3. He too has Iowa on the wrong side of the bubble. Instead, he has Northwestern in the field given their close loss to Indiana vs Iowa’s blowout to OSU. Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, they control their destiny against the Wildcats while NW has a trip to Columbus on deck immediately after that date with Iowa on 11/7.
And then there’s Sports Illustrated, clearly the most well-researched news organization on the planet. Talk about people who do their homework.
Ultimately, Iowa’s path is as clean as a playoff path gets in mid-October. The Hawkeyes control their own destiny – win and you’re in each and every week. Lose and Iowa really needs some help down the stretch from their remaining opponents and the rest of the field. The SEC has an overinflated bubble that will pop itself while several of the top teams elsewhere (looking at you, IU, OSU, Notre Dame, BYU and Miami) have showdowns that will potentially narrow the field further. Iowa just needs to control what it can control week to week.
November football with real stakes. Can’t ask for much more.
