It’s a short week and the Hawkeyes are two time zones to the west facing off with the Washington Huskies at 8pm tonight. That’s historically been a recipe for disaster under Kirk Ferentz. Vegas thinks this time will be no different. FanDuel Sportsbook opened with the Huskies favored by 1.5 in this one. The line climbed as high as Washington -3.5 at points during the week but as of Friday morning, it has settled down to Washington -2.5 with the over/under unchanged at 41.5 total points. That gives us an implied final score of Washington 22, Iowa 19.5.
Here at The Pants, we’re pretty torn on how this one will play out. I think the consensus amongst the staff is if this one were played in Iowa City on a Saturday we’d be pretty confident. The Hawkeyes feel like the better team. But they are playing in Seattle and it is on a Friday night. Oh, and Hank Brown is not starting. So yeah, mixed feelings.
Our official consensus score prediction is Iowa 21, Washington 20.5. Tough to get much closer than that. Of our seven staffers submitting official predictions this week, four are taking Iowa straight up. Just one is taking Washington giving more than 3.
As a quick reminder, a week ago we called for a final score of OSU 31, Iowa 20, taking the Hawks with the points and the over. We went 0-2 with the under hitting by a half point (depending on when you got your picks in) and the Buckeyes covering. That puts us at 2-8 on the year. Probably not great news for Iowa this week.
Here’s a look at our individual predictions for tonight’s matchup.
JPinIC
I’m really struggling with where I’m at mentally at this point in the season. I was a Jeremy Hecklinski stan all offseason. I felt like what we saw from Hank Brown in the loss to Indiana a year ago was all we needed to see and I was excited about the upside we could have from a mobile gunslinger like Heck.
Then I watched Brown operate in this offense the first four weeks of the season with the exclamation point on the final drive against Michigan and my views on the matter completely shifted. Initially I believed Hank was the safe play with high floor and low ceiling while Hecklinski brought in a certain amount of volatility that was unacceptable for Kirk Ferentz but necessary for this team to reach its true ceiling. Now I think the volatility comment holds for Heck but that Brown still brings the higher floor while also possessing the higher ceiling.
This is a matchup where the higher ceiling isn’t needed, but the higher floor feels paramount. Washington is a solid team, but they don’t have a Jeremiah Smith. They aren’t hanging 30 on this Iowa defense, and their defense may well do their best to shut down the run, but the front four is nowhere near the caliber of Ohio State’s and their secondary is susceptible to attack off of play action. This feels like a classic spot for Iowa to lull everyone to sleep and slowly python the Huskies into mistakes that kill them down the stretch.
If Brown is truly out and Hecklinski is the guy, we need the Kid’s Day version of him we saw without mistakes for things to work out. I’m more nervous than I should be, especially on a short week heading west.
Washington 20, Iowa 17
GlendaleHawk
Iowa is 13-5 on Friday nights under Kirk Ferentz. Iowa is also 0-4 in regular season games played west of the Central time zone under Kirk Ferentz. I think we all recall how our last couple of trips to the coast went, and I think we’d all prefer to forget them.
Look, this is a good Washington team and while they don’t have the talent of Michigan or OSU or USC last year, they are not a team that Iowa is going to walk all over, especially not in their own building. If Iowa can’t get their running attack firing on at least 4 of 6 cylinders, it may not matter who the QB is. Jedd Fisch has seen the tape, he knows that we haven’t been able to run the ball against real competition, he knows that our QBs do not have the ability to put the team on their shoulders and will them to a victory, he can also read an injury report.
Demond Williams isn’t Julian Sayin, Dezmon Roebuck isn’t Jeremiah Smith, and Brian Bonner isn’t either of the Jackson’s that OSU has in the backfield, but they don’t have to be, they just have to be better than Jeremy Hecklinski, Kamari Moulton, and Tony Diaz.
This game is going to be uncomfortably close, but hey, at least I can golf on Saturday without fear of missing an Iowa game.
Iowa 21, Washington 17
David Fidler
This is tricky because I had this game picked before the season began, before even looking at Washington or looking at where Iowa is at after five games.
Before noting the deciding factor, the Huskies have a really good quarterback, but I’m not sure his heart is in Seattle. They’ve got some talented pass catchers. The defensive front seven is solid, anchored by MLB Jacob Manu.
But their offensive line has some major problems protecting their quarterback—15 sacks allowed—they take a lot of penalties and they turn the ball over a lot. And their rushing game is mostly focused on their quarterback.
I can see a path to victory for the Hawkeyes, and I do think Iowa is the better team. However, Kirk Ferentz is 0-4 in regular season games west of the Rockies, and maybe I put too much stock in that, but until he proves he can win one of those games, I’m not willing to say he will win one of those games.
Washington 21, Iowa 17
HWKTACO
Washington’s offense is led by dual threat QB Demond Williams Jr., who is listed at a doubtful 5’11” and 190 pounds. He is not the load that ISU’s Jaylen Raynor is, nor Michigan’s Bryce Underwood. He is Washington’s leading rusher and is most effective when he can improvise and escape the pocket. Iowa needs to contain Williams and keep him in the pocket, or he’ll end up looking like a Heisman Trophy candidate.
There is good probability Washington’s defense will play a four-man front most of the time, versus a five-man front like OSU did. There is zero probability Washington’s defense will have the blue-chip athlete$ like Iowa faced against Michigan and Ohio State. Washington’s defensive coordinator, Ryan Walters, was previously the DC at Illinois, and commonly utilizes a three-high safety defensive scheme that is popular to combat spread offenses. The way to attack it is for Iowa to use wide receiver screens, quick hitch routes and quick outs to the flat.
Keys to the game for Iowa’s offense are quick, accurate passing for 4 or 5 yard chunks at a time, setting up 3rd and short for a heavy-set run game, while on defense exploiting Washington’s weaker pass protection.
Iowa 24, Washington 20
Matt Reisener
Iowa is a better football team than Washington. Thought to a be a playoff dark horse before the season began, the Huskies have been extremely underwhelming this year. They are averaging almost 80 yards in penalties per game, are one of the worst offenses in the country on third down (where they complete less than 30% of their attempts), and they’ve struggled to run the ball more often than not. On a neutral field, I’d pick Iowa to win by 7-10 points.
Unfortunately, this game is not being played on a neutral field, but is instead taking place at 8:00 PM CST on a Friday night in Husky Stadium, almost 2,000 miles away from Iowa City. It’s been almost 40 years since Iowa won a regular season game played in the Western time zone, and playing on a short week with injuries at quarterback and in the secondary is not exactly a recipe for breaking that losing streak. Washington has been stout against the run this season, holding opponents to 3.2 yards per carry. Given Iowa’s struggles to run the ball against Power Four competition, that likely means the Hawkeyes will have to rely on Jeremey Hecklinski, making his first collegiate start under less than ideal circumstances, to generate offense with his arm. If the offense sputters early, this game could get away from the Hawkeyes in a hurry.
Iowa’s best pathway to victory may lie with a strong game from its defensive line. The Hawkeye front four will have plenty of opportunities to rush the passer against a team that is surrendering three sacks per game. But the defensive line will also need to be disciplined in their rush so as to deny dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams free lanes to escape the pocket and make plays with his legs. If this unit has a standout night, the Hawkeyes could escape Seattle with a win. If not, I expect the Hawkeyes to come back stronger after their bye week, as this young team will continue to improve as the season progresses.
Washington 20, Iowa 17
Braedan Garrett
Before the season, I had Iowa going 0-3 during this three game stretch and thought Washington was their best chance to steal a win. But the Huskies have stumbled to a 3-2 record and did not look convincing in a couple of their wins. Now the opportunity is there for the Hawks to go 2-1 during this gauntlet.
But that is going to be difficult against a Washington team hungry for redemption. I really wanted them to beat USC last week, partly because screw USC but also because I thought getting a big win on the road against the Trojans may set them up for a letdown at home against Iowa. Instead, I fear the Huskies will be playing with their backs against the wall, facing an 0-3 record of their own in conference play. The pressure is all on Iowa.
However, I think this is an Iowa team and staff that can manage that pressure and play their type of ball in Husky Stadium. Kirk finally breaks the west coast curse after a tense back and forth game.
Iowa 24, Washington 21
HeavyMetalLawyer
Trips to the west coast have always spelled trouble for the Hawkeyes. But in this particular matchup the Hawkeyes seem to have the advantage of being the better team. Motivation should also be there as the Hawks badly need this one to stay on track for a possible playoff berth.
I haven’t done an in depth look at this Huskies team so it’s a gut prediction for me. Hawkeyes get it done on a short week and Heck plays well enough to restart the QB controversy.
Iowa 27, Washington 24
So there you have it – a close one that could see Iowa struggle. Or come together with a new QB. We have no idea. Do you? Let us know in the comments!
