Penn State Nittany Lions (3-2; 0-2 Big Ten) vs USC Trojans (5-1; 2-1 Big Ten)
7:30 p.m. ET, October 10 – NBC
Beaver Stadium (Capacity: 106,572 / University Park, PA)
| Penn State | Value (Nat’l Rank) | Value (Nat’l Rank) | USC | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 156.4 (73) | 118.2 (43) | Rushing Defense (ypg) |  |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 243.6 (57) | 230.7 (97) | Passing Defense (ypg) |  |
| Pass Efficiency | 148.87 (54) | 148.37 (115) | Pass Efficiency Defense | |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 400.0 (63) | 348.8 (68) | Total Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 32.0 (T – 62) | 25.5 (89) | Scoring Defense (ppg) | |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 173.2 (110) | 156.2 (74) | Rushing Offense (ypg) | |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 119.6 (3) | 311.7 (12) | Passing Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 91.99 (3) | 165.82 (23) | Pass Efficiency | Push |
| Total Defense (ypg) | 292.8 (28) | 467.8 (29) | Total Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 16.0 (T – 24) | 37.3 (29) | Scoring Offense (ppg) | Push |
| Punt Return Defense (ypr) | 26.0 (133) | 15.77 (20) | Punt Return Yds (ypr) | |
| Punt Return Yds (ypr) | 11.79 (50) | 6.67 (T – 67) | Punt Return Defense (ypr) | Push |
| Net Punting Yds (ypp) | 37.87 (103) | 43.3 (T – 23) | Net Punting Yds (ypp) | |
| Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) | 19.83 (70) | 19.88 (82) | Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | Push |
| Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | 17.43 (50) | 17.0 (T – 105) | Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) | |
| Turnover Margin | +1.2 (T – 13) | -0.17 (T – 76) | Turnover Margin | |
| Passes Had Intercepted (total) | 3 (T – 58) | 3 (T – 70) | Passes Intercepted (total) | Push |
| Passes Intercepted (total) | 5 (T – 26) | 4 (T – 78) | Passes Had Intercepted (total) | |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 47.2 (29) | 60.83 (87) | Penalty Yds/Game | |
| Sacks (spg) | 1.4 (T – 107) | 1.0 (T – 18) | Sacks Allowed (spg) | |
| Sacks Allowed (spg) | 1.2 (T – 33) | 2.17 (63) | Sacks (spg) | |
| Tackles for Loss (tpg) | 5.0 (T – 82) | 2.83 (13) | Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | 3.2 (T – 17) | 4.3 (107) | Tackles for Loss (tpg) | |
| Redzone Offense (% season) | 81.8% (T – 94) | 81.8% (T – 60) | Redzone Defense (% season) | |
| Redzone Defense (% season) | 92.3% (T – 114) | 81.2% (T – 98) | Redzone Offense (% season) | Push |
| Redzone TD % (season) | 54.55% | 68.18% | Redzone TD % Defense (season) | Push |
| Redzone TD % Defense (season) | 53.85% | 65.63% | Redzone TD % (season) | Push |
| 3rd Down Conv. % (season) | 40.0% (T – 79) | 34.8% (49) | 3rd Down Defense % (season) | |
| 3rd Down Defense % (season) | 23.4% (4) | 52.1% (11) | 3rd Down Conv. % (season) | Push |
| 4th Down Conv. % (season) | 50.0% (T – 68) | 66.7% (T – 104) | 4th Down Defense % (season) | |
| 4th Down Defense % (season) | 71.4% (T – 112) | 71.4% (T – 17) | 4th Down Conv. % (season) | |
| 1st Downs (season) | 105 (T – 52) | 110 (T – 121) | 1st Downs Allowed (season) | |
| 1st Downs Allowed (season) | 81 (T – 46) | 152 (1) | 1st Downs (season) | |
| Time of Possession (mpg) | 30 (70) | 33 (17) | Time of Possession (mpg) | |
| Strength of Schedule | 60 | 66 | Strength of Schedule | Push |
| Difference | > 25 | in | National Rank | |
| Difference | > 50 | in | National Rank | |
| Difference | > 75 | in | National Rank | |
| Difference | > 100 | in | National Rank | |
Note:
All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is taken from ESPN.
The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts:
The Nittany Lions are in a bit of a free fall this week after being destroyed on the ground in Northwestern’s new stadium opening last Friday Night. USC, on the other side, has been underwhelming but ultimately victorious in every game except the home match against Oregon, which had some controversy itself; the Trojans, exactly the opposite of last week’s opponent, have already played six games this season, having scored a victory in week zero.
This is one of the least-hyped white out games in a number of years, and while SC is a favorite, it’s not by much; the way the teams have been playing, this could be a good barometer of whether PSU’s offense can get back on track (facing a seemingly-typical Lincoln Riley defense) and/or whether PSU’s defense can actually close holes and tackle a runner. This game isn’t a foregone conclusion, but it does have the potential to get ugly pretty quickly.
Some more about these numbers:
- Penn State’s offense has been in the red zone 22 times, scoring 12 touchdowns and 6 field goals; Southern Cal’s offense has had 32 red zone trips, with 21 touchdowns and 5 field goals
- The Nittany Lion defense has allowed 13 red zone trips resulting in 7 touch downs and 5 field goals, while the Trojan defense has allowed 22 trips inside the 20 resulting in 15 touchdowns and 3 field goals
- On third down, PSU has converted 28 of 70 tries, while USC has converted 37 of 71. Their defenses have allowed 15 of 64 conversions (Penn State) and 23 of 66 conversions (Southern Cal)
- On fourth down, the Nittany Lions have converted 3 of 6 tries, to the Trojans’ 10 of 14. On defense, PSU has allowed 5 of 7 conversion attempts as USC has allowed 8 of 12
- Penn State has returned 6 kickoffs, while Southern Cal has returned 10; PSU has allowed 7 kickoff returns to USC’s 8
- The Nittany Lions have returned 14 punts and allowed just 1 punt return. The Trojans have returned 13 punts and allowed 3 punt returns
- PSU has punted 23 times, with 3 touchbacks; USC has punted just 10 times (less than 2 times per game), with 2 touchbacks.
What say you all?
