This Saturday, ESPN Gameday comes to Iowa City for the first time in 20 years as the Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Ohio State Buckeyes. This matchup will be, without question, the toughest game the Hawkeyes will play all season. No other game in the regular season will come close.
Last weekend, Iowa overcame the odds and beat Michigan on a last-second 16-yard pass from Hank Brown to Reece VanderZee. And it was in Michigan. And it will go down in Iowa lore as one of Ferentz’s greatest wins. But call Michigan what it is: a good, not great, team that, on paper, is pretty even with Iowa no matter what happened in this game. Conversely, on paper, OSU is leaps and bounds ahead of Iowa.
If this Ohio State matchup is played five times, Iowa wins maybe one of them, and I think that is a conservative estimate. So this article will focus on what needs to happen for that one-out-of-five to occur.
3 Questions
Will Kirk Ferentz Trust His Passing Game?
Coming into this season, I felt confident about the offense. I didn’t think it would be a top-20 offense, but it would be adequate, with an adequate passing game which is far beyond anything Iowa has had in a long time. My concern was that Ferentz wouldn’t use that offense. That he would lean on the defense, as usual, even if the situation called for leaning on the offense.
On paper, Iowa has had a good rushing game this year. The Hawkeyes are ranked fifth in the NCAA, second in the Big Ten, with 6.53 yards-per-carry. But look closer. Against Michigan, Iowa rushed for 2.4 YPC. Against Iowa State, it was 3.2 YPC. You have to expect a drop off against better teams, but that is falling off a cliff.
It is worth noting that Iowa had a more effective rushing game in the second half of both contests, minimally better in the second half against Michigan and considerably better in the second half against ISU. Did the defense wear down? Just luck? Different running plays called?
I think the big difference is that Iowa passed a lot more in the second half against both teams. This, in turn, opened up the run.
If the Hawkeyes want to run effectively against better defenses, like Ohio State, they will have to set up the run with the pass. Offensive balance is a good goal, but they’re not going to find it unless they open up running lanes by airing the ball out first.
Can Iowa Contain the Ohio State Passing Game?
OSU quarterback Julian Sayin is completing 72.2% of his passes this year. Last year, he completed 77% of his passes. He is exactly the type of quarterback Phil Parker doesn’t want to face: accurate and patient.
The Buckeyes have the fourth most efficient passing offense in the country, and unlike Nos. 1, 2 and 3, they’ve actually played a high-quality defense (Texas).
Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith might be the best receiver ever to play in the Big Ten, and the Big Ten has produced such receivers as Braylon Edwards, Cris Carter and Charles Rogers.
OSU has a solid running game, and if the Hawkeyes triple-cover Smith, there are plenty of other options.
In short, Iowa is not going to shut down the Ohio State offense. No chance. But it can be contained. If Ohio State completes a pass, the receiver is tackled immediately. Long passes are shut down. Keep everything in front of you.
And in the red zone, lock everything down. Against this offense, holding them to a field goal is a victory.
All of this should sound familiar: bend-don’t-break.
Can the Hawkeyes Sustain Kinnick Night Magic?
During the Ferentz era, the Hawkeyes are 17-7 in night games at Kinnick Stadium. They are 3-4 against ranked opponents. 3-4 might not sound pretty, but consider that Ferentz’s career record against ranked opponents is 31-60. His all-time home record vs ranked opponents is 20-25.
One of Ferentz’s greatest wins was 2016 against No. 2 Michigan. 5-4 Iowa beat 9-0 Michigan.
I could cherry pick this list or that list to find someone saying that Kinnick is a tough place to play, but inevitably, the Shoe and Happy Valley are always Nos. 1 and 2. But 3 and 4 are usually Kinnick and Camp Randall in whatever order.
The reasons don’t matter; what matters is that other teams are made uncomfortable, and this is especially so at night.
In order to beat Ohio State, the Hawkeyes will have to keep the Kinnick energy flowing. They can’t afford lulls. They can’t afford to allow big plays. They can’t afford stoppage after stoppage of play.
Obviously, OSU will have something to say about all of that, but Iowa has to go into this game with the goal of keeping the crowd energized any way it can.
2 Things to Watch
The Margins
Against Michigan, I predicted Iowa would win because they would win inside the margins. And, by and large, that, along with one perfect pass-and-catch on the last play of the game, was the difference. That won’t be enough against Ohio State. But it’s still part of the formula to take home the win.
It begins with turnovers. Somehow, Hank Brown has yet to throw an interception, and this wouldn’t be the game to start. The team has been credited with only one fumble, and they recovered it. Meanwhile, Julian Sayin has thrown one interception and the Buckeyes have recovered three fumbles. OSU and Iowa both have a net +1 turnover margin which is in the upper third of the Big Ten.
Iowa, averaging seven penalties per game, is in the middle of the conference while Ohio State, averaging nine per game, is toward the bottom.
It’s hard to rank special teams play at this point in the season, but it can be said that, based on raw numbers, Iowa’s kick return, punt return and punting are far superior to Ohio State. The kicking game favors the Buckeyes.
Again, this won’t win the game for Iowa, but it can even the scales a bit.
Opportunities
Against the Buckeyes, the opportunities are not going to come by the bushel, so Iowa has to take advantage of every one that pops up.
If a ball hits a defensive back in the hands, he has to intercept it. If a receiver gets behind the coverage, Hank Brown has to hit him. If the Hawkeyes get the ball in good field position, they have to score. And field goals won’t do; touchdowns.
There is no point breaking this down; it is that simple. And unlike against Michigan, Iowa will need more than 20 points to win this.
1 Crazy Prediction
Boston Everitt, Iowa’s punter, strands OSU inside their own five not once, but twice. One of those punts will be early in the game at which point Iowa will still be very much in it, and the end zone crowd will explode.
Punting is winning.
Go Hawks!
