Penn State Nittany Lions (3-1; 0-1 Big Ten) vs Northwestern Wildcats (2-1; 0-1 Big Ten)
8:00 p.m. ET, October 2 – Fox
Ryan Field (Capacity: 35,000 / Evanston, IL)
| Penn State | Value (Nat’l Rank) | Value (Nat’l Rank) | Northwestern | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 183.5 (43) | 199.3 (128) | Rushing Defense (ypg) |  |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 243.8 (T – 58) | 218.0 (80) | Passing Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Pass Efficiency | 162.94 (33) | 109.94 (25) | Pass Efficiency Defense | Push |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 427.2 (49) | 417.3 (120) | Total Defense (ypg) | |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 36.8 (36) | 18.0 (36) | Scoring Defense (ppg) | Push |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 113.2 (43) | 146.0 (95) | Rushing Offense (ypg) | |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 126.2 (4) | 269.0 (37) | Passing Offense (ypg) | |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 87.63 (3) | 184.98 (9) | Pass Efficiency | Push |
| Total Defense (ypg) | 239.5 (9) | 415.0 (63) | Total Offense (ypg) | |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 11.5 (T – 8) | 32.7 (59) | Scoring Offense (ppg) | |
| Punt Return Defense (ypr) | 0.0 (T – 9) | 4.5 (111) | Punt Return Yds (ypr) | |
| Punt Return Yds (ypr) | 11.79 (54) | 1.0 (T – 21) | Punt Return Defense (ypr) |  |
| Net Punting Yds (ypp) | 39.31 (76) | 34.33 (127) | Net Punting Yds (ypp) | |
| Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) | 11.79 (54) | 16.33 (T – 42) | Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | |
| Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | 16.33 (T – 42) | 20.33 (64) | Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) | Push |
| Turnover Margin (season) | +1.75 (T – 6) | +1.33 (T – 11) | Turnover Margin (season) | Push |
| Passes Had Intercepted (season) | 1 (T – 14) | 3 (T – 49) | Passes Intercepted (season) | |
| Passes Intercepted (season) | 5 (T – 17) | 0 (T – 1) | Passes Had Intercepted (season) | Push |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 44.0 (T – 23) | 59.33 (80) | Penalty Yds/Game | |
| Sacks (spg) | 1.5 (T – 96) | 2.33 (T – 106) | Sacks Allowed (spg) | Push |
| Sacks Allowed (spg) | 1.25 (T – 38) | 1.67 (T – 91) | Sacks (spg) | |
| Tackles for Loss (tpg) | 4.8 (T – 85) | 5.67 (98) | Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | Push |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | 3.25 (T – 20) | 3.7 (T – 124) | Tackles for Loss (tpg) | |
| Redzone Offense (% season) | 80.0% (T – 98) | 69.2% (T – 12) | Redzone Defense (% season) | |
| Redzone Defense (% season) | 100.0% (T – 128) | 100.0% (T – 1) | Redzone Offense (% season) | |
| Redzone TD % (season) | 50.0% | 30.88% | Redzone TD % Defense (season) | |
| Redzone TD % Defense (season) | 50.0% | 71.43% | Redzone TD % (season) | |
| 3rd Down Conv. % (season) | 41.1% (T – 74) | 44.7% (117) | 3rd Down Defense % (season) | |
| 3rd Down Defense % (season) | 19.2% (1) | 41.2% (T – 72) | 3rd Down Conv. % (season) | |
| 4th Down Conv. % (season) | 40.0% (T – 105) | 50.0% (T – 59) | 4th Down Defense % (season) | |
| 4th Down Defense % (season) | 83.33% (T – 131) | 100.0% (T – 1) | 4th Down Conv. % | |
| 1st Downs | 85 (T – 55) | 69 (T – 52) | 1st Downs Allowed | Push |
| 1st Downs Allowed | 56 (T – 23) | 61 (T – 128) | 1st Downs | |
| Time of Possession | 31 (41) | 29 (94) | Time of Possession | |
| Strength of Schedule | 118 | 12 | Strength of Schedule | |
| Difference | > 25 | in | National Rank | |
| Difference | > 50 | in | National Rank | |
| Difference | > 75 | in | National Rank | |
| Difference | > 100 | in | National Rank | |
Note:
All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is taken from ESPN.
The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts:
If we thought the rankings last week were too soon, this week might be even be wonkier – Northwestern has had an EXTREMELY early bye week already, so these rankings for them are after only three games, which in some instances makes their ranking seem worse. But on the other side, their only loss is a very narrow one to the defending national champions. So while this post has a lot of chipmunks on it, I’m still very surprised the Nittany Lions are the odds-on favorite in this matchup.
Some more about these numbers:
- There are two unit matchups where the Wildcats got five logos, and neither surprise me – PSU fourth down defense versus NU’s fourth down offense, and Northwestern’s redzone offense versus Penn State’s redzone defense. Neither are surprising.
- In the redzone, the Nittany Lions have allowed 4 touchdowns and 4 field goals in their opponents’ 8 trips (100% failure rate); the Wildcats have allowed 4 touchdowns and 5 field goals in their opponents’ 13 trips.
- PSU’s offense has scored 10 touchdowns at 6 field goals in their 20 trips inside the redzone, while NU has scored 10 touchdowns and 4 field goals in their 14 trips (100% success rate)
- On fourth down, Penn State’s defense has allowed 5 conversions on 6 attempts; Northwestern’s defense has allowed 4 conversions on 8 attempts
- The Nittany Lions have attempted 5 fourth down conversions, and only converted on two of them, while the Wildcats have converted on both of their 2 fourth down conversion attempts
- On third down, though, the PSU defense has been remarkable – facing 52 attempts, and allowing conversions on only 10 of them. The NU defense has faced 47 3rd downs and allowed conversions on 21 of them
- The Penn State offense has converted on 23 of their 56 third down attempts, and the Northwestern offense has converted on 14 of their 34 third down attempts
- The Nittany Lions have returned 4 kickoffs, while the Wildcats have returned 6
- PSU has allowed kickoff returns just 6 times (alongside 18 touch backs), and NU has allowed 9 kickoff returns with 10 touch backs
- Penn State has punted 16 times with 2 touch backs; Northwestern has punted 12 times with 1 touch back
- The Nittany Lions have returned 14 punts to the Wildcats’ 2; PSU has allowed 0 punt returns, while NU has allowed just 1
What say you all?
Espace publicitaire · 300×250
