The non-conference slate is over and now the Hawkeyes head to Ann Arbor for their biggest test of the year in the Big Ten Conference opener as they face #18 Michigan. The Wolverines opened up as 4.5-point favorites earlier this week. That’s climbed up to Michigan -5.5 with an over/under that has settled at 38.5 total points over on FanDuel Sportsbook. That gives us an implied final score of Michigan 22, Iowa 16.5.
Here at The Pants, we’re a bit of a mixed bag. Nearly three quarters of the staff is taking the Wolverines to win outright, but our consensus final score is Michigan 17.6, Iowa 15.3 (call it 18-15). That has us taking the Hawks with the points, but pretty comfortably on the under.
As a quick reminder, a week ago we called for a final score of Iowa 41, Northern Iowa 6 – taking the Panthers with the points and the under. We were again wrong on both counts as the Hawkeyes throttled UNI 55-0. We fell to 1-5 on the season. Is that good or bad for the Hawkeyes?
Here’s a look at our individual predictions for tomorrow’s matchup.
JPinIC
This matchup feels eerily similar to the Iowa State one to me. Going into that matchup, I know there was some optimism and that waned a bit as the game got closer, but ultimately we saw an absolute rock fight.
This week, I think there are reasons for optimism. Namely, this Michigan team has not looked nearly as good as we expected them to be this year and they’re still trying to find their footing under a first year head coach. But their strengths seem to be very similar to Iowa State. The defense is stout, especially against the run, and they want to take advantage of their running QB and take deep shots.
I just think Michigan has better personnel than the Cyclones and given how the Hawkeyes looked in round, I think they come up short. Underwood hits one more deep shot. He breaks 1-2 more runs for a first down. And Diaz doesn’t break loose for the long ball from Brown.
Michigan 17, Iowa 13
HWKTACO
The narrative on Michigan this year is that they are stout on defense, solid on special teams, and the question mark is on offense. Sounds eerily familiar to another team you might have been following.
Michigan’s star running back Jordan Marshall has been battling a nagging lower body injury this fall, and fortunately for Iowa he didn’t take last Saturday off against UTEP. Their 2nd year quarterback Bryce Underwood is a dual threat and also a work in progress. Michigan has fumbled the ball six times in their first three games.
For our preseason “Pants Predicts” I was the lone dissenter who went out on a limb and predicted Iowa would go into the Big House and get a W. Nothing I have seen so far this early season has changed my mind. It’s a new head coach in Kyle Whittingham, joined by about 9 new coaches, a new playbook, and an offense still trying to find its identity. Is this Iowa offense for real, and has Tim Lester turned the corner? By 6:00 pm on Saturday we’ll have some good data points to give us a glimpse into what lies ahead.
Iowa 20, Michigan 17
GlendaleHawk
Defense, defense, and more defense. This is the kind of game that could set the B18 back 70 years. Michigan knows full well that it cannot rely on it’s offense to win this game and until Hank Brown can prove to the world that an Iowa quarterback can beat a P4 team through the air that means that Iowa’s RBs are going to see a lot of Maize and Blue in their running lanes.
This is a game that Iowa can win, maybe even a game Iowa should win, I’m just not sure it’s a game that they know how to win quite yet. Iowa State in Kinnick is one thing, Michigan at the Big House is a completely different animal. We all have reason to believe that they can win this game, and I really, really hope they do, but I’m just not sure that they will.
Michigan 17, Iowa 14
Matt Reisener
Seven years ago, an undefeated Iowa squad traveled to Ann Arbor for a battle of Top 20 teams. While Iowa’s early-season offensive performances gave fans hope that it could move the ball against the Wolverines, Michigan’s defense had other plans. Nate Stanley threw three interceptions and took eight sacks, Iowa rushed for a total of one yard, and the Wolverines won a 10-3 game that could most generously be called “unwatchable.”
Iowa’s offense is probably better in 2026 than it was in 2019, but the Hawkeyes could suffer a similar fate during this trip to Michigan. As underwhelming as Michigan’s offense has been this year, its defense has been excellent, totaling 25 tackles for loss in its first three games. Hank Brown has looked solid through three games, but it’s still unclear how he will handle a big game against a high-level opponent in a hostile road environment. If Michigan loads the box and forces Brown to beat them through the air, a few early misses, sacks, or turnovers could cause things to go sideways quickly. Michigan could also exploit Iowa’s inexperienced special teams—the Hawkeyes had an extra point attempt blocked last week and have had several close calls on punt protection already.
On the flip side, this Michigan team seems extremely beatable. Bryce Underwood is simultaneously the exact type of quarterback Iowa’s defense has struggled with in the past (mobile with a strong enough arm to hit any receiver who beats Iowa’s defensive backs deep) and the exact type of quarterback that typically struggles against Iowa’s defense (impatient, turnover-prone, and incapable of consistently taking what the defense gives him). The Wolverines have also struggled up front, though it’s unclear whether Iowa’s inexperienced defensive line is capable of taking advantage. Finally, Michigan has had serious ball security issues, having fumbled six times through three games. This could create opportunities for Iowa to capitalize on short fields.
I expect an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle, with the slight edge going to the home team. However, if Iowa’s offense shows up this Saturday, the Hawkeyes could easily emerge victorious, and its hard to imagine Iowa losing this game if they manage to score 20+ points.
Michigan 14, Iowa 13
HeavyMetalLawyer
It’s tough to predict what we are going to get from this Michigan team on Saturday based on the small sample size available. On the one hand, this team lost to Western Michigan in week 1 (yes LOST, not ALMOST LOST) in an ugly game where after an opening drive touchdown, the Wolverine offense disappeared. On the other hand, Michigan took care of a talented Oklahoma squad in week 2, shutting down NFL prospect John Mateer in the process, and rolled to an easy win last week over UTEP.
One thing to note is Michigan is a little banged up going into this one – listed as questionable are starting right tackle Andrew Sprague, and nightmare edge rusher Dom Nichols, among others. Since this game is going to likely be won or lost in the trenches, if these players are unable to go it could seriously hinder the Wolverines. Dom Nichols is a player I’m very worried about – he’s been elite at getting to the quarterback this year and if he plays he can disrupt the game plan and make Hank Brown very uncomfortable in the pocket all day.
As for the Hawkeyes – it appears that some of our guys are getting right at the right time. DJ Vonhamme, Kamari Moulton, and L.J. Phillips are expected to play after sitting last weekend.
The key to winning this game for Iowa in my opinion is throwing to Tony Diaz. Michigan plays a lot of man defense and Tony Diaz is an incredibly tough assignment. If he gets less than 10 targets that’s not enough in my opinion. I expect him to have a big day.
I’m honestly a bit worried about Hank Brown. I think at best he manages the game and doesn’t make any big mistakes. At worst, he is harassed by a very good Michigan front, turns the ball over, panics, and loses confidence.
When Michigan has the ball, they will look to use their run game to chip away at Iowa. Look for Parker to try to contain Bryce Underwood and make him beat the Hawkeyes with his arm. When Underwood throws he will definitely be looking for his favorite target, wide receiver JJ Buchanan who at 6’4” is going to be a tough ask for an Iowa secondary that lacks size. I could see him having huge numbers on Saturday.
I wish I could say that I think the Hawkeyes will win this game. On paper, I think these teams are pretty even, and I think Michigan is still figuring things out on offense. But I’ve personally gotten my hopes up high too many times for games like this to actually believe the Hawkeyes can pull one out in the big house. Just a feeling but I think this is the game where Michigan’s offense starts to put some things together, and is aided by a few lucky breaks. I think Michigan comes out with a surge of energy for their conference home opener, and Iowa gives up a few big plays early and digs itself a hole it can’t get out of. At halftime it’s 21-3 and we are all shaking our heads as we are once again brought back down to earth. I think in the second half, the Parker defense is fully settled in and goes into shutdown mode, but it ends up being too little too late, and the Hawkeye offense just can’t get enough going against an incredibly stout Michigan defense. I think the entire second half we will spend saying we are back in it IF, we are back in it IF, and then the “IF” just never quite materializes.
Michigan 24, Iowa 13
David Fidler
Before the season, I had Iowa winning this. My rationale had more to do with Michigan than Iowa. I thought that when the season ended, Michigan, due to its brutal schedule, would turn out to be a very good 7-8 win team, kind of like Iowa last year. Now that Michigan has played actual games, I feel even more confident in that prediction.
This one will be a slugfest with what happens in the margins—special teams, penalties, turnovers—determining the winner. And I like Iowa in the margins vs Michigan.
Iowa 20, Michigan 17
Braedan Garrett
I’ve bounced back and forth all week about this game and I still don’t know on which side I’m going to fall. In five minutes I could feel completely differently. Both Iowa and Michigan enter this game with strengths and questions in almost the same areas: strong on defense and “Good, I think” on offense.
This is not going to be a fun game to watch, it’s going to be a slow, stressful fistfight with the team that makes the fewest mistakes winning. If Iowa can’t sustain a running game, I worry about Hank Brown in front of 100,000 Wolverine fans. He absolutely has to protect the ball, and not just in terms of turnovers. It’s throwing it away if he can rather than trying to force something against Michigan’s terrific corners. He needs to be smart and take what he can get. Bryce Underwood needs to be the quarterback making the mistakes, not Hank.
With a questionable ground game, Michigan will rely on Underwood to be the spark whether that’s with his arm or his legs. He’s had his share of turnovers so I’d expect Iowa to try to force him to be patient, methodical, and not get greedy and pounce when he does. Fumbles in this game have to be forced. Picks cannot be dropped. Just one of those opportunities could decide the game.
Ultimately, Michigan is just that bit more talented and makes those couple of plays Iowa doesn’t. With the ball late and driving, Hank makes that mistake he can’t afford and throws his only pick of the game, dooming Iowa’s comeback.
Michigan 17, Iowa 14
So there you have it, a low scoring affair the Hawkeyes lose. Or win. We have no idea.
What say you, Hawkeye fans? Let’s hear those predictions!
