It’s the big one, folks. Don’t get scared now.
The good thing is, if you’re traveling to Ann Arbor for this game, the weather looks majestic. Saturday’s forecast calls for sunny skies throughout the day with a high of 71. Yes, it’s perfect. While we’d of course prefer a home game here, a home game this weekend would see an 85 percent chance of rain in Iowa City. The Utah-Iowa State game, played at the same time as Iowa’s game, calls for a 100 percent chance of rain in Ames.
As to the game. Geez, I don’t know on this one. The line has held steady at FanDuel, clocking in right now at Michigan -5.5. The good news – Iowa has personnel offensively in a high-profile game for the first time in probably 5 years. They have more than just one or two guys on that side. Iowa has dudes. Iowa has a real offensive coordinator going into this game. Iowa’s defense struggled with some of Iowa State’s myriad looks, but they completely dominated the Cyclones for the final 25 minutes of the game. They held up in their biggest test to date. The special teams issues, while not completely perfect, have been an overall positive through three games.
But the negatives. Michigan’s defense is spectacular. It’s a hyper aggressive unit. Even more aggressive than Iowa State’s. They have the personnel all over that defense. Michigan also has a ton of ability on the offensive side. It doesn’t always show, and it hasn’t through their first three games, but it’s there. Bryce Underwood looks like a 5-star guy. He doesn’t always play like it, especially in the pass game (that is a chance for Iowa to make hay), but if he revs the engines in the run game? Yikes. He can house you from distance.
Then there are the stats floating around. Iowa has zero road wins over a ranked opponent since 2015 at Northwestern. Chad Leistikow had a stat earlier in the week that in games played with an attendance over 100,000, Iowa hasn’t had a red zone snap in 44 possessions. 44! Iowa hasn’t won against Michigan in a decade, and hasn’t won at the Big House since 2010.
In the end I’m a homer and I think Iowa plays this one smarter than the 10-3 catastrophe in 2019, a game Iowa wins with better guidance from the offense coordinator. This is going to be a dogfight so Iowa will play the field position game better than 2019. It’s likely the first to 17 or 20 wins the game. I think Iowa can do that. Michigan’s staff will try to protect Underwood but he commits a couple of crucial turnovers – Michigan’s had some turnover woes so far this season – that Iowa converts into points to win, 17-13.
But keep your guard up. Always keep your guard up.
Date: Saturday, September 26
Time: 2:30 pm CT
Matchup: Iowa Hawkeyes (3-0, 0-0) at Michigan Wolverines (3-0, 0-0)
Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan
TV: CBS
Updated Weather Forecast: Sunny with a high in the low 70s. A perfect day for football.
Updated FanDuel Line: Iowa +5.5, O/U 38.5
