After taking a look at Rashan Gary and Elgton Jenkins, our cap casualties series now turns to the offensive backfield. What does the future hold for running back Josh Jacobs?
A 2019 first-round pick by the Raiders (with one of the picks they got from Chicago in the Khalil Mack trade in 2018), Jacobs joined the Packers in 2024 as a free agent. Since then, he’s been productive in a high-volume role, carrying the ball 535 times for 2,258 yards and 28 rushing touchdowns over his first two years in Green Bay.
Jacobs battled injuries in the second half of the 2025 season, though, and heading into his age 28 season, his cap hit will approach $15 million. With the Packers looking to retool several parts of their roster before a major teardown in 2027, will Jacobs be a part of the picture in 2026?
The case for Josh Jacobs
Jacobs’ strongest case for remaining in Green Bay is this: he’s doing exactly what the Packers have asked him to do.
The Packers clearly wanted a workhorse, bellcow, lead dog, or whatever animal metaphor you prefer when they signed Jacobs, and he’s given them that. Even with the Packers heavily managing his carries in the last month of the season, Jacobs still logged 234 attempts in the regular season, piling up 13 rushing touchdowns.
He also gave the Packers 36 receptions in the passing game, averaging 7.8 yards per catch. It was just the ninth time since 2000 that a Packers back has hit both of those thresholds.
It’s also noteworthy that Jacobs’ best days coincided with the Packers’ best team performances. He carried 17 times for 83 yards (4.9 yards per attempt) in the Packers’ Thanksgiving Day romp in Detroit, and he carried 20 times for 86 yards and a touchdown (4.3 yards per attempt) in the Packers 28-21 win over the Bears. Jacobs touched the ball on six of the eight plays on the Packers’ game winning drive, including an impressive 21-yard run on a third down play, and the game-winning touchdown.
The case against Josh Jacobs
There are deeper issues with Jacobs, though. Jacobs’ volume-based stats look okay in part because the Packers force-fed him the ball throughout the year. On a rate basis, Jacobs’ stats don’t look nearly as good.
Jacobs has never been a home run hitter as a ballcarrier, and his stats reflect that, but you have to start wondering at what point his lackluster rate stats are evidence of age-related decline and overall wear-and-tear than just a reflection of his playing style.
Let’s start with his yards per carry average. Jacobs averaged just 4.0 per carry this year, the fourth time in his seven-year career that he’s averaged four yards or less per carry. Jacobs was one of 21 players in the NFL to carry the ball at least 200 times this year, and of that group, only three players (Christian McCaffrey, Ashton Jeanty, and Quinshon Judkins) had a worse yards per carry figure.
Jacobs’ success rate of 49.1% on rushing plays also was lackluster among his peers. Among that same 21 player group, Jacobs’ success rate ranked 12th, comfortably in the bottom half but ahead of a few notable names, including Christian McCaffrey (48.6), Jahmyr Gibbs (48.1), Saquon Barkley (46.1), and Ashton Jeanty (41).
Jacobs has also been measurably worse with the football with the Packers than he was with the Raiders. In silver and black, Jacobs averaged one fumble every 126.5 touches (including playoffs). With the Packers, Jacobs has put the ball on the ground once every 72.3 touches, including twice in two playoff games.
Still worse for Jacobs, he’s aging and he’s faced a lot of wear and tear in his NFL career. Next year will be his age-28 season (his birthday is February 11, mark your calendar), and he’s logged more than 2,100 career touches in his seven regular seasons. Sooner or later, those touches are going to add up, and the “sooner” part of that equation becomes more likely every year.
Bottom line: Jacobs is expensive and aging, but the Packers seem inclined to invest in him again
Jacobs carries a cap hit of $14.6 million in 2026, fourth highest in the league after Alvin Karmara ($18.6 million), Jonathan Taylor ($15.5 million), and, surprisingly, Aaron Jones ($14.8 million). Only four other backs in the NFL have a cap hit above $10 million in 2026 (Kyren Williams ($11.6 million), Christian McCaffrey ($10.8), Joe Mixon ($10.5 million), and James Conner ($10.2 million)) and that list could get trimmed. NFL teams, generally speaking, are not super thrilled about double digit cap hits for aging running backs, and more than a few players on that list fit that bill.
The Packers clearly value the “bellcow back” archetype, and I can see why, to an extent. If you’re going to have one guy handling the ball upwards of 300 times in a single season, you’d better be darn sure you trust that guy, and paying to get the best is one way to make sure you’re getting the best guy you can.
The Packers have been willing to spend to make sure they have that guy. They signed Jacobs, obviously, but previously they burned a second round pick on AJ Dillon, re-signed Aaron Jones, and then re-worked Jones’ contract to keep him around even longer. Clearly, they’re not averse to throwing resources at a position commonly criticized by analytics-oriented commentators who decry the value of running backs.
The Packers were exceedingly careful with Jacobs’ reps down the stretch, and clearly viewed him as a crucial part of their offensive machine. Given how beat up their offensive line was in the later portions of the year and their overall injury management philosophy with their star running back, I think the Packers would be inclined to absolve Jacobs of a lot of the blame for his generally disappointing performance in December and January — he averaged just 2.6 yards per carry on his final 36 carries of the year, including playoffs.
Given the state of the rest of the Packers’ roster, I think they’re going to be inclined to run it back with Jacobs one more time. I think they’ll prioritize retooling their offensive line and adding talent on defense, counting on this version of the offense to carry the load one more time before a significant shakeup in 2027. Jacobs will get to be the top dog in the backfield one last time, even if the returns are diminishing.
Besides, unless they’re really confident in the return of MarShawn Lloyd, it’s not like the Packers are just spoiled for choice in the backfield. They can either go to the well in free agency, burn another draft pick on a running back, or just let Jacobs play out the string.
