New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye and Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford are both MVP finalists, but only one can win the award.
Stafford seems to have the edge for the official NFL MVP Award. He was named the First-Team All-Pro quarterback by the Associated Press, making it very likely that he will win the award. However, the race is not so cut and dry. ESPN’s Seth Walder ranked 100 players for his “real” MVP Award, taking into account more than just traditional factors.
“To evaluate players, I rely on a variety of sources — statistics and quantitative metrics, awards such as the All-Pro team, and feedback from NFL front office personnel and colleagues at ESPN,” wrote Walder on Thursday. “One of my favorite parts about football is that player evaluation is far from a settled science. Every season, including this one, someone I trust in the league will tell me I have a player ranked far too high and another person who I have similar trust in will tell me that same player is ranked far too low.
“In this exercise, we are measuring player value relative to average at respective positions. So we will almost certainly have quarterbacks at the very top — it is the highest leverage position — but also cannot have more than 16 on the list.”
Maye topped Walder’s rankings, with Stafford in third place. Dak Prescott was No. 2 on the rankings. Walder noted that Stafford’s accuracy numbers did not stack up to Maye and Prescott’s, hence his third-place finish in the rankings.
“Maye might not be the NFL MVP when it is announced Feb. 5 … but he should be,” wrote Walder. “And while it was a close race throughout the season, I don’t think it was really that close at the end. Maye finished as the NFL’s QBR leader by a healthy margin, with his 77.2 being well ahead of the next-highest finisher (Jordan Love at 72.9). And because QBR already adjusts for opponent quality, Maye’s big lead takes into account the Patriots’ easy strength of schedule.
“How did Maye pull it off? Mainly with accuracy and a big helping of explosive plays. Maye led QBR-qualifying quarterbacks in yards per dropback (7.7), adjusted completion percentage (78.8%) and completion percentage over expectation (plus-9%). That last number represents the best CPOE season by any quarterback in the NFL Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Maye recorded 54 plays that generated at least two expected points added, tied for the second most in the NFL. And his 8.7 air yards per attempt was third highest, and he threw to the sticks or farther on 47% of his attempts (fourth highest).”
Walder went on to note that Maye achieved all he did this season in a tougher situation than Stafford. Stafford is throwing the ball to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams with Kyren Williams in the backfield. The Patriots’ weapons are great, but they do not stack up to the two All-Pro wide receivers and Pro Bowl running back the Rams have.
Walder’s rankings will most likely not align with how the MVP race actually shakes out. All indications are that voters will name Stafford the NFL MVP, and Maye will be the runner-up. However, the two could face off in the Super Bowl, and both would much rather win that than the award anyway.
