The New England Patriots and Denver Broncos will do battle in the AFC Championship on Sunday — all for a chance to advance to Super Bowl LX.
Who will win? How will they do it?
I’ve put together the keys to victory for both sides:
NE: PROTECT THE KID
I’ve used this one before, but “the kid” has an entirely different meaning this time around…
Will Campbell has faced something of a gauntlet this far, and it’s safe to say he’s failed — allowing four sacks and double-digit pressures against the likes of Khalil Mack, Odafe Oweh, Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.
Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper are even more formidable opponents than some of those guys we just mentioned, helping their defense lead the league in sacks (68) while accounting for 76 and 51 pressures, respectively, according to Pro Football Focus.
It’s time to start putting protections in place to aid the rookie offensive lineman, which will include chipping from Rhamondre Stevenson, Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry, as well as minimizing individual matchups by sliding the likes of Jared Wilson and Garrett Bradbury.
If you can’t protect Drake Maye, you can’t win this game. If you don’t do everything in your power to aid Campbell, you aren’t protecting Maye.
DEN: SEAN PAYTON MASTERCLASS
Broncos head coach Sean Payton has built his offensive system around making things easy for the quarterback — quick, high-percentage passes; using motion to create one-on-one mismatches; minimize reads for the quarterback— which will help now that they’re forced to rely on backup Jarrett Stidham.
If you haven’t heard all about that by now, get out from under your rock.
Payton will want to do all the same things he’s been doing, but with a special focus on getting the running game going and causing chaos — we’re talking about the guy who called for a surprise onside kick in Super Bowl XLIV.
It’s on him…
NE: CREATE SPACE
Maye will be facing pressure all afternoon, but abandoning the passing game hasn’t been and shouldn’t be something to consider — just help him out.
The Patriots have relied heavily on 21 (two running backs, one tight end) and 12 (one running back, two tight ends) personnel throughout the latter half of the season, but it might be time to spread things out and attack with quick game.
Kayshon Boutte, Stefon Diggs and DeMario Douglas have been surprisingly great against man-coverage — with all three scoring touchdowns in the divisional round by winning quickly off the line of scrimmage and coming to the aid of their quarterback. Boutte made an incredible diving catch. Diggs showed his strong hands and held on despite being clawed at by three defenders. Douglas didn’t even need gloves to convert for his score on fourth down.
It’s a better group than we thought, so continue to trust them.
DEN: PROTECT THE FOOTBALL
The Texans turned the ball over five times last weekend.
The Broncos haven’t turned the ball over that many times in a single game this season, and haven’t turned it over more than twice since their sloppy Week 1 victory over the Tennessee Titans (four times).
If they can avoid putting the ball in harm’s way, they’ll have an opportunity to win this football game — though that is easier said than done.
NE: DIAL IT UP
The Patriots’ defense had incredible success dialing up pressure against the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans — but those happens to be the 30th and 27th ranked offensive lines, respectively, according to Pro Football Focus.
It’ll be a different story this week.
The Broncos’ offense ranked first in sacks allowed (22), pressures allowed (137) and pass-blocking efficiency rating (89.5), according to PFF. It’s no easy task getting to the quarterback, no matter who it is, though some things might change.
Bo Nix worked on designed rollouts at the second-highest rate (14.3%) and threw on the run at the highest rate (25.4%) among qualified quarterbacks in 2025. Stidham isn’t nearly as mobile, so there’s a question as to whether those play-calling tendencies will carry over.
If they do, it’ll be important to spy with Christian Elliss and/or Dell Pettus. If not, expect interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr to continue spinning the dial and make the backup’s life a living hell via the likes of K’Lavon Chaisson, Christian Barmore and Milton Williams.
DEN: RUN THE FOOTBALL
The Broncos averaged 112 rushing yards per game across their victories this season, as opposed to 111 rushing yards per game across their losses.
Oh…
Denver apparently relies on the passing game to make the difference, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be looking to run the ball effectively with a backup quarterback and an all-world defense.
