The Portland Trail Blazers are in a time of transition, growing out of a rebuild phase, arcing towards contention in a crowded, talented Western Conference. Rebuilding or contending? The Blazers are properly described by neither designation at the moment. The middle ground they occupy leads to a fair amount of uncertainty and frustration, but also great debate about the opportunities ahead of them.
Recently in the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag we’ve gotten several versions of, “What do you think Deni Avdija’s future with the team looks like?” Avdija’s status–contractually and his role on the court–seems to be at the top of the minds of Blazers fans.
Just as I was sitting down to think about the matter, I got another question from a reader named Paul, basically rehearsing a discussion we have almost every summer. He asked, “Which current players are still going to be with this team in three years?”
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Like baking soda and vinegar, these two questions exploded when combined in my mind. I’m not going to try and answer either definitively here. That requires more thought and data. But I want to share a “What if?” and see what you think. This isn’t the ultimate scenario, but a starting spot to ponder.
First, what if we narrowed down Paul’s question to the smallest core possible? There are reasons to like every player on this team. No doubt many of them will be with the franchise 3-5 years from now. That’s great! Without denying the possibility and general goodness of having any current player with the team long-term, let’s reduce the roster to the smallest subset that makes sense, individually and collectively.
I’m going to assume that Avdija will make the list for most Blazers fans, so let’s start with him. To Deni, I’d add Toumani Camara because you’ll never be sad to have him in the rotation. With those two in the fold, I’m going to add a third player of specific utility who might not make the list for sure on his own, but already makes a nice trio with the other two: Donovan Clingan.
Emphasizing: I realize Clingan’s strengths and limitations. In the abstract, if the Blazers decided to trade him I wouldn’t scream. It would just mean they’re going with a different style of play than he provides. But in this scenario, I’m suggesting they retain Clingan specifically to play with Avdija and Camara. That’s my core.
One more detail, dovetailing with the “Deni’s Future” question. Avdija is, at heart, a small forward, pressed into point guard duty by Portland’s current injuries. But what if he wasn’t? What if running the show becomes Deni’s permanent job? Let’s say over the next couple of seasons he calms down the turnovers (he currently leads the league in total turnovers committed) and shoots just a smidge better from the three-point arc.
What have I got now? A 6’8 point guard who can score a ton while producing 7-8 assists and 7-8 rebounds per game, a mobile 3-and-D forward, and a huge, defensively-apt rebounding monster at center.
What’s missing? A lot of offense. Camara and Clingan don’t contribute big numbers. That’s the obvious hole in the plan at this point.
But I’m also missing a shooting guard and a small forward. Those are traditional hotbed positions for point production. I’m looking at Portland’s draft picks and swaps coming up over the next few years and thinking either by trade or organic drafting, I need to pick up one wing who can defend and score decently, a second who can score big whether or not he defends well. Then my starting lineup is more than set.
This is doable. It’s also a lot cleaner than Portland’s current position. You know that five-point-guard experiment they’re running now, seeing who will stick? To heck with it all. One or two of those players might help over the long run, but I’m already covered and simply look for back-ups at that position. If the answer to, “Which point guard stays?” turns out to be, “None of the above,” we’re good. Anything north of that is great.
So, too, with the young forward corps. Everyone is wondering who will step up. I still need someone to, but not as far. If you can come off the bench for 20 minutes, provide active defense, and not completely kill the offense, you’re good. If I don’t already have players like that under contract, I can find plenty across the league.
Obviously this is not as simple in real life as it looks on paper. NBA franchises often have to tailor their plans around the players they can actually get instead of recruiting players to fill an aspirational chart. But I’d suggest that a core three of Avdija, Camara, and Clingan provides a wide enough avenue forward–leaving the team looking for common enough attributes at well-populated positions–that the future has a decent chance of materializing.
Some might say Shaedon Sharpe is the ready-made shooting guard in this scenario. So be it. If not, shooting guards are fairly easy to draft.
Or consider forwards. Camara would be interchangeable between positions. What if Portland traded for Lauri Markkanen or even Pascal Siakam? If you want the current jackpot, where are the Trey Murphy III fans? Or, failing that, who wants to draft the next Kon Knueppel?
Whether it’s drafting (Stephon Castle, Cedric Coward, any random Thompson brother, Jalen Williams, Keegan Murray) or trade (Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Norman Powell, Michael Porter, Jr,) we’ve seen players who fit the general profiles that the Blazers would need entering and moving around the NBA aplenty over the last few years. These particular examples may not suit your fancy, but you get the idea. We’re not talking a Victor Wembanyama draft or trading for Luka Doncic. Those would be preferable, of course, but the Blazers can still advance without it if their needs are both defined and easily-filled.
That’s what’s dominating my Blazers thoughts this week. What if the actual core of the team right now was still very small? Several players could stick in other roles, major and minor, but they don’t have to as long as the core is solid and flexible enough on both ends of the court to leave room for a variety of players to fill the gaps.
I think sometimes we confuse “exiting the rebuilding phase” with “fully-formed and ready to go”. Every time I’ve tried to retain a large group of current Portland players, I end up with a mess that requires several candidates to develop fully and then mesh together. The first is unlikely, the second difficult. And even then, at the end, I find myself saying, “What they really need to fix this is Wemby or Anthony Edwards.” That ain’t happening.
The problem gets solved a little more easily by paring back expectations and participants, starting at the step we’re more sure of, then moving forward to the next piece of solid ground. Everything besides the foundation becomes a means towards that next step, whether it’s by participation or trade. When I Marie Kondo this thing I get to exhale and not worry about chaining myself to variables and weaknesses I’m not sure will ever resolve. Somehow that seems easier and more sane.
In any case, thanks as always for the questions. You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible! Don’t forget to help us send kids to see Deni Avdija and the Blazers play in March! Here’s the place to donate tickets!
