Everyone loves a linear narrative.
OK, fine – not everyone. If you’re some kind of wacky postmodernist, you prefer a strange metanarrative. You love yourself some Twin Peaks.
Good for you.
The rest of us love a linear narrative. We also love a linear NBA career. When a player becomes the player they were projected to be, it’s satisfying. Their predraft profile is a clearly defined premise, and their NBA career is a tidy, logical conclusion.
It might not go that way for Amen Thompson.
When he was drafted, he was either the mythological 6’7″ point guard or a bust. Thompson was going to be prime Russell Westbrook – oh, but also the best wing defender in the NBA. Alternatively, he was Michael Kidd-Gilchist only someone a worse shooter. His supporters countered that it wouldn’t matter that he couldn’t shoot – why would that matter in 2026?
I was guilty. I evoked the specter of Ben Simmons. Perhaps that trajectory is still on the table, but it isn’t necessary. Fortunately, he’s also had too much success to entertain a future “bust” label. Most of that career success has come as an off-ball cutter who conserves most of his energy for the defensive end.
Lately, it seems like he’s transitioning back into that role.
Rockets’ Amen Thompson is moving off the ball
On the season, Thompson has a 20.3% Usage Rate. Over the Rockets’ last five games, he’s at 18.8%.
Some will cry sample size. To be sure, it’s not a huge sample. It may be noise.
Yet, it has felt like a concerted effort. When Thompson shares the floor with Reed Sheppard, it’s Sheppard initiating the offense. Alperen Sengun typically feels like the primary hub. They’re both more natural half-court playmakers than Thompson.
“Half-court” is (are?) the operative word(s) there. The qualities that screamed “point guard” pre-draft are still present in Thompson. He has the floor vision, and it’s evident in transition. Thompson’s processing speed seems causally tied to the speed of the game itself. When it’s fast, he’s fast.
But when it’s slow…
Thompson seems uncertain about what type of half-court initiator he wants to be. There’s selflessness in his DNA, but he’s also aggressive. Wires get crossed. Thompson is capable of making utterly absurd drive-and-kick passes, but he sometimes drives when he should have kicked, or kicks when he’s too far into his drive.
None of which means Thompson should never have the ball. He’s in the 56.1st percentile league-wide in Points Per Possession (PPP) as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. He’s in the 61.6th percentile in isolation PPP. Neither of those marks is necessarily good, but neither is bad.
Thompson can attack closeouts. He can drive later in the clock if the Rockets have exhausted their other options. He’s not a point guard yet, and he may never be one:
But he is a point forward.
Rockets still searching for Thompson’s role
Last year, Thompson had a 4.1 Box Plus/Minus (BPM). For context’s sake, that put him in the same ballpark as James Harden, Damian Lillard, Cade Cunningham, and others. This year’s 1.9 BPM has Thompson sharing company with Alex Sarr, Payton Pritchard, Immanuel Quickley…
You get the picture.
There’s a counterargument to be made. You could say that regression was always to be expected as Thompson learned a new position.
Perhaps. A 2.2 drop in BPM feels like a bit more than “regression”. It seems sensible to conclude that if Thompson looked elite as an off-ball guy, and mediocre with more on-ball reps, he’s likely got a brighter future as an off-ball weapon. Call me crazy.
It’s not that the Rockets should have already concluded. It’s not to knock them for experimenting with him at the 1 this year. If his career does take the route I’m outlining here, he’ll still benefit from having handled the ball in his third season.
All I’m saying is this: the safe money suggests that Thompson is more Andrei Kirilenko than Penny Hardaway*. If the Rockets concur, they might as well set his course accordingly. His usage rate over the last 5 games is likely more indicative of what his future holds than his season-long number:
Unless his development takes an unexpected turn.
*Please forgive the imperfect analogy. Thompson is a singular athlete even in NBA history. It’s hard to find a comparison.
P.S. Does the asterisk at the end of the article subvert the expected linearity of the article ironically? If not, how about the postscript? Is this meta?
