The NBA is officially at the midway point in the season with every team playing at least 41 games so far during the 2025-26 campaign. At this point, we have a pretty good feel for the season while acknowledging the many surprises that can still be in store.
Yes, the Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs are legitimate championship contenders who are way ahead of schedule from how they were seen coming into the season. The Eastern Conference remains wide open, and now the Boston Celtics feel like a legitimate contender for an NBA Finals spot if Jayson Tatum can return from his torn Achilles. The West is still led by the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they don’t feel quite as overpowering now as they did during the first 25 games of the season.
With the Feb. 5 trade deadline and the 2026 NBA All-Star Game both approaching, here’s an updated ranking of every team in the league by their championship chances right now.
The Tankers
30. New Orleans Pelicans
29. Indiana Pacers
28. Brooklyn Nets
27. Washington Wizards
26. Sacramento Kings
25. Utah Jazz
24. Dallas Mavericks
23. Charlotte Hornets
The top of the 2026 NBA Draft is absolutely loaded, with Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and A.J. Dybantsa representing one of the strongest top-3s in recent memory. It was always inevitable that a trio this talented would cause mass tanking psychosis eventually this season, and that appears to be happening already. Some caveats do apply: the Pelicans aren’t tanking for anything after trading their unprotected 2026 first-round pick to Atlanta for Derik Queen — they’re just really bad. The Mavericks are still hovering around play-in range, but Anthony Davis’ hand injury means they’re probably better off tanking ASAP to maximize the chances of the only first-round pick they control until 2031. The Washington Wizards signaled they’re ready to stop tanking with their trade for Trae Young … after this season at least, as he’s still recovering from various lower body injuries. The Pacers are set up to execute the perfect gap year as Tyrese Haliburton recovers from a torn Achilles.
With the exception of the Kings who need a full teardown and have to deal with a loaded Western Conference, the rest of the teams in this tier feel like they could be in the playoff mix next season with some lottery luck. Cameron Boozer and Darryn Peterson are franchise cornerstone level prospects to me, and while I have been consistent in ranking Dybantsa third, he could also quickly emerge as an All-Star in the right environment. The winners of this draft lottery will suddenly be gifted a way out of jail. The future of the league will change based on how the ping pong balls bounce, and all of the teams in this tier have at least given themselves a chance to luck into a young star.
Fighting for the play-in tournament
22 Atlanta Hawks
21. Milwaukee Bucks
20. Chicago Bulls
19. Memphis Grizzlies
18. Golden State Warriors
17. Los Angeles Clippers
16. Portland Trail Blazers
15. Miami Heat
This is the worst tier to be in: no shot at doing anything of substance in the playoffs while also having very low odds to cash in lottery luck … aside from the Hawks, who own the Pelicans’ draft pick this year. It feels like almost all of these teams are dealing with some sort of crisis: the Bucks are hopelessly trying to build a contender around Giannis without any assets, the Warriors now have no hope to go on a run after Jimmy Butler’s torn ACL, the Grizzlies are stuck in Ja Morant trade rumor limbo, and the Bulls are in the exact same position every year with no real hope of ever getting better.
The Clippers are surging over the last month, and feel like the one team in this tier could maybe win a playoff series this year. The Blazers also have some good vibes this year with Deni Avdija’s breakout and a solid young core around him led by second-year big man Donovan Clingan. Miami just feels like it’s always waiting to pounce on the next available superstar, but there have been some wasted seasons along the way while they wait. I’ll give credit to the teams in this tier for not wanting to lose on purpose, but at a certain point, the NBA is all about superstars, and if you don’t have one, you might as well try to maximize your chances at landing a future one in the draft.
Solid playoff teams without real title equity
14. Philadelphia 76ers
13. Cleveland Cavaliers
12. Toronto Raptors
11. Orlando Magic
10. Phoenix Suns
9. Los Angeles Lakers
These teams could give their fans a thrill or two in the playoffs, but it’s hard to see them winning four straight series to claim the championship. It’s a tier with an equal mix of surprises and disappointments: the Cavs were supposed to be a legit title contender but haven’t looked the part all year, the Suns were supposed to be at the bottom of the West before morphing into the season’s most pleasant surprise, the Sixers’ youth movement has carried the team as Joel Embiid and Paul George have battled injuries, and the Lakers are just plain confusing with an encouraging record but a negative point-differential. I find Orlando — my preseason Eastern Conference champion pick! — to be the most frustrating team on this list. Paolo Banchero has been up-and-down and the team is once again better with him off the floor. Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs should be ascendent two-way players but injuries keep slowing their momentum. Anthony Black is having a legit breakout year and gave us maybe the season’s best dunk, but the Magic are ultimately still a middling East playoff team rather than a real contender.
I still like the Lakers to have the most long-term hope out of this group, strictly because they have the best player in Luka Doncic. It just feels like there’s so much more work that needs to be done to fully optimize the roster for Luka’s talents (and deficiencies) that they’re a year away, at least. I also want to shout-out Raptors rookie Collin Murray-Boyles in this section, who has looked outstanding lately as a small ball five. Read my big pre-draft feature on Murray-Boyles here.
Puncher’s chance at the championship
8. Boston Celtics
7. Houston Rockets
6. New York Knicks
5. Detroit Pistons
Someone has to win the East, and the conference’s three best teams find themselves in the second tier of the league title race. The Knicks looked like the obvious favorite to reach the NBA Finals after their NBA Cup win, but they’ve folded like a chair ever since they disrespected the Cup by refusing to hang a banner. New York’s two best players are still horrible defensively and that complicates any run through the bracket. The Pistons have been an amazing story and should be built to last as an East contender, but it feels like they’re one move away from a Finals run even in a weak conference. Detroit’s defense is fantastic, but their offense is still outside of the top-10 and could face a whole new set of problems in the playoffs. I think the Pistons need another ball handler and a front court shooter before they’re Finals-bound, but it would be hard to blame them for slow-rolling it with such a young team in a wide open conference. I’m suddenly fascinated by the Celtics’ Finals chances with Jayson Tatum potentially returning. I’ve thought a Tatum return was a terrible idea all season, but at this point it’s clear he’s determined to come back, and the Celtics are way ahead of where they should have been entering this season. If Tatum somehow hits the ground running, Boston probably has the most balance of any East contender.
I would be very tempted to pick the Celtics in a playoff series over both the Pistons and Knicks at this point, but that’s mostly pending how Tatum looks if and when he returns. I had Boston at No. 16 in my preseason rankings, and really thought they would be in the lottery mix in a great draft. There’s no need to tank when you already have a wagon, and the Celtics really might be there. For now, I’ll give the Pistons the slight edge in the East because I trust their offense slightly more than I trust the Knicks’ defense.
True championship contenders
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
3. San Antonio Spurs
2. Denver Nuggets
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
I framed this season as “the Thunder vs. the field” in my initial season power rankings and it still feels that way … only now the field might have the upper hand. OKC started 24-1, but they’ve shown some signs of vulnerability since then, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being unable to keep up his sky-high free throw rate, Jalen Williams’ scoring efficiency plummeting after his wrist injury, and the team-wide three-point shooting dropping off significantly. The Thunder’s biggest challenger has felt like the Nuggets since the summer, and I’m still sticking with it. Nikola Jokic’s injury killed his chances at a fourth MVP, but it did allow the Nuggets to let Jamal Murray show what he can do with more creation reps, and give a bigger role to suddenly surging young wing Peyton Watson. A Thunder-Nuggets playoff rematch would be absolute cinema, but don’t discount San Antonio and Minnesota, either.
The Spurs have beaten OKC three times this season. Victor Wembanyama is a problem without a solution, and not even a top-3 center like Chet Holmgren can slow him down. I’m not sure the Spurs’ young guards are really ready for prime-time yet, and rookie No. 2 pick Dylan Harper has been struggling in particular over the last month. The Timberwolves might feel like a surprising pick for No. 4, but ultimately I feel like they’re a more complete team than the Knicks, Pistons, and Rockets with a better lead superstar. Anthony Edwards keeps taking his game to new levels, and right now it feels like he can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the league. The Wolves have been to the conference finals the last two years, and if they can add one more piece at the deadline, this team can go even further. For now, the championship still goes through OKC with Jokic looming as their biggest challenger.
