Cubs left-hander Justin Steele made just four starts in 2025 before missing the rest of the season with Tommy John surgery. That surgery took place April 18, 2025, and the normal time frame for returning is between 12 and 15 months.
That means, theoretically, that Steele could be back pitching sometime in late April, though that’s likely not going to happen. Most probably, Steele will be placed on the 60-day injured list whenever that list opens, usually sometime in early March, which would mean the first game back for him would be in early May.
The Cubs, though, will likely be more cautious, but Meghan Montemurro reported in the Tribune that Steele’s rehab process is going well and ahead of schedule:
Steele took a step forward in his rehab process Friday when he threw off a mound for the first time since he underwent season-ending elbow surgery in April. Steele said Saturday he is feeling really good and hasn’t suffered any setbacks.
“There hasn’t really been any hiccups at all through this process,” Steele said. “It’s felt good the entire time. If anything, we’re ahead of schedule. Kind of been pushing the envelope the entire time, wanting to get off the mound, push the footage back as far as the throwing progression goes. But, yeah, it’s full steam ahead.”
Steele expects his surgeon, Dr. Keith Meister, will want him to be on some level of an innings limit for 2026 and so he anticipates that will impact when he comes back, though the belief is it will be sometime early in the season. The Cubs envision playing in October and making a deeper run this year, lessening a rush to get Steele back as soon as possible, especially with the depth they have built for the rotation.
The last sentence is the most important. This sort of thing is something the Dodgers, for example, have done — put together a deep rotation so that injured pitchers don’t have to rush back. For example, Blake Snell made just 11 starts during the 2025 regular season, but started five times (and appeared in six games) during the Dodgers’ postseason run.
The acquisition of Edward Cabrera means the Cubs already have a solid rotation that includes Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Shōta Imanaga and Jameson Taillon. Colin Rea, who started 27 times for the Cubs in 2025, is thus pushed to a long relief/swingman role, and Javier Assad, who started seven games down the stretch for the Cubs last year, probably starts the year at Triple-A Iowa being stretched out to start.
Thus Steele’s return could even be delayed until after the All-Star break, with a somewhat leisurely rehab assignment before that to make sure he’s 100 percent. That would be a bonus to the Cubs, to be able to add a starter of Steele’s caliber in late July, almost like a trade deadline acquisition.
Give Jed Hoyer credit — he’s addressed the starting rotation by acquiring Cabrera, which helps give the staff more depth, and here’s hoping when Steele comes back, he’s ready to produce — similar to the way Boyd did for the Guardians when he returned from TJS in August 2024. You probably remember that first Boyd start — it was against the Cubs Aug. 13, 2024, and he shut them down for 5.1 innings with six strikeouts.
Here’s hoping for a similar return for Steele.
