The first half of the 2025-26 season is history, and the Wizards season has at times inspired hope, frustration, and laughter. There have been puzzling moments (like Kyshawn George trying to force James Harden to go left — TWICE in the final minutes of a close game) and some exciting ones as well (like Alex Sarr emerging as one of the game’s better rim protectors).
At 10-32, the Wizards have the NBA’s third worst winning percentage (the New Orleans Pelicans and Indiana Pacers are percentage points ahead behind). They‘re 14th in the East, 8.5 games out of the play-in, and they have the league’s worst scoring differential adjusted for strength of schedule or not.
As I’ve written previously, scoring margin is the best measure of relative team strength. Adjusted for opponent quality, the Wizards are -10.8 per game this season. That’s a whopping 2.6 points per game worse than the 29th ranked Sacramento Kings.
Barring a complete second half meltdown, the Wizards are out of “worst ever” historical status. Their adjusted scoring margin is 11th worst all-time, which is an improvement from last season when they were third worst. Ever. They remain on course for the worst two-year run — at least in terms of scoring margin — in NBA history.
The Measuring Stick
Here’s where the Wizards currently rank in the various key stats of team strength (where they ranked at the last update, which was Jan. 13, is in parentheses):
- Offensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 28 (27)
- Defensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions): 29 (29)
The departures of CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert have — at least temporarily — reduced Washington’s offensive efficiency. Kispert’s impact is less because he missed much of the season with injuries. Trading McCollum is more consequential because of his ability to create good shots and to make tough ones. Plus, his experience helped the team stay somewhat organized.
With McCollum gone, the young guys have to figure things out on their own, which at this point is probably a good thing for their long-term development. Call it a short-term quarter step back in hopes of taking a couple giant steps forward.
Offensive Four Factors
- eFG%: 23 (21)
- Offensive Rebounding Percentage: 19 (20)
- Turnover Rate: 26 (26)
- Free Throws Made/Field Goal Attempts: 27 (26)
Since the McCollum trade, the Wizards have shot worse and committed more turnovers. They’re also getting to the free throw line a bit less.
Defensive Four Factors
- eFG%: 22 (23)
- Defensive Rebounding Percentage: 30 (30)
- Turnover Rate: 28 (28)
- Free Throws Made/Field Goal Attempts: 21 (15)
They’re still last in defensive rebounding, but the actual percentage has gone up to 71.0% — it was 70.0% just a few games ago. They’re still almost two percentage points from 29th. As I wrote after a recent game, the defensive results aren’t good, but the coaching staff is implementing a good defensive scheme, and we’re seeing the predictable growing pains.
Player Production Average
Below is a table with updated results from the Player Production Average (PPA) metric so far this season. PPA is an overall rating metric I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and debits them for things that hurt the cause (missed shots, turnovers, fouls, ineffective defense). PPA is similar to other linear weight rating metrics such as John Hollinger’s PER, David Berri’s Wins Produced, Kevin Pelton’s VORP, and the granddaddy of them all, Dave Heeren’s TENDEX.
PPA weighs a player’s performance per possession against that of his competitors season by season. While PPA falls into the category of a linear weight metric, the values for statistical categories float a bit season-to-season based on league performance.
PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. Beginning with the 2019-20 season, I added a position/role adjustment designed to reflect how roles and on-court positioning affect individual abilities to produce certain stats.
Inputs include:
- on-court team defensive rating
- points
- rebounds (offensive and defensive weighed differently)
- assists
- steals
- blocks
- shot attempts
- turnovers
- personal fouls
- starts
- minutes
In the table below, I’ve included each player’s PPA last time, currently (through games played Jan. 19 — game 42), as well as games played and minutes per game. The Garbage Time Brigade has their own section.
In the table below, LAST = the player’s PPA when I last ran an update, which was through games played Jan. 7, 2026.
| PLAYER | GAMES | MPG | LAST | PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Sarr | 33 | 27.8 | 157 | 145 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 36 | 19.3 | 108 | 104 |
| Justin Champagnie | 40 | 18.5 | 99 | 96 |
| Kyshawn George | 33 | 31.2 | 89 | 94 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 25 | 26.6 | 83 | 81 |
| Tre Johnson | 35 | 24.7 | 79 | 80 |
| Khris Middleton | 29 | 24.3 | 83 | 78 |
| Malaki Branham | 24 | 9.6 | 42 | 56 |
| Bub Carrington | 42 | 28.3 | 47 | 51 |
| Cam Whitmore | 21 | 16.9 | 49 | 49 |
| Tristan Vukcevic | 30 | 11.4 | 43 | 46 |
| Will Riley | 34 | 13.8 | 43 | 34 |
| AJ Johnson | 23 | 7.1 | -7 | -13 |
| DEPARTED | GAMES | MPG | PPA | PPA |
| CJ McCollum | 35 | 30.9 | 121 | 121 |
| Corey Kispert | 19 | 19.5 | 78 | 78 |
| GTB | GAMES | MPG | PPA | PPA |
| Anthony Gill | 19 | 3.8 | 56 | 48 |
| Jamir Watkins | 17 | 13.4 | 37 | 29 |
| Sharife Cooper | 4 | 2.5 | -66 | -66 |
2026 All-Star Ballot
Below is a table showing my picks right now for this year’s All-Star game based on a mix of stats and watching too many games.
| EAST | WEST |
|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
| Donovan Mitchell | Nikola Jokic |
| Tyrese Maxey | Kawhi Leonard |
| Jalen Duren | Stephen Curry |
| Jalen Johnson | Luka Doncic |
| Michael Porter Jr. | Jamal Murray |
| Cade Cunningham | Anthony Edwards |
| Jalen Brunson | Victor Wembanyama |
| Jaylen Brown | Chet Holmgren |
| Josh Giddey | LeBron James |
| Norman Powell | Kevin Durant |
| Scottie Barnes | Deni Avdija |
- I paid no attention to position because apparently All-Star has now joined All-NBA as positionless.
- I also paid no attention to the U.S. vs. International aspect of this year’s festivities. On a quick eyeballing of the lists, I see at least eight international players, which is the minimum required.
- I’m not sure if Deni Avdija will actually make the team. He’s playing really well, and there are a lot of good vibes out there about him. In my view, he’s in an arguable group with maybe 6-10 other guys.
- MVP is a two-man race, assuming Jokic can get to the stupid 65-game requirement. SGA’s PPA is 299 (the only player to crack 300 was Stephen Curry, who did it once). Jokic is at 288. Giannis is third at 257.
- LeBron James isn’t on my list because of his status as the game’s elder statesman. His PPA is 182 this season, which is excellent. If I was to drop an old guy for someone playing a little better, it would be Kevin Durant.
- I wanted very much to find a spot for Jimmy Butler, who’s having an excellent season, but I couldn’t see giving two spots to the Golden State Warriors.
